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Finnair’s strategy update emphasizes RASK more than CASK, which itself wasn’t a big surprise, however the target for unit revenue growth was more ambitious than expected.
Finnair’s biggest challenges this year may now be in the past, yet it still needs to achieve significant earnings growth next year to earn its current valuation.
Finnair’s Q3 revenue was lower than estimated as ticket prices developed softer than we expected. Finnair did a bit better than we estimated in terms of costs, but this wasn’t enough to make up for the shortfall in revenue and Finnair’s EUR 50.7m comparable EBIT fell almost EUR 15m short of the estimates. Finnair also adjusts its FY’25 guidance downwards due to many reasons, including weakness in the North Atlantic traffic. Finnair’s updated comparable EBIT guidance midpoint implies EUR 46.5m for Q4’25.
Finnair reports Q3 results on Oct 30. In our view the underlying Q3 results could already be relatively strong, but better performance towards next year is widely expected.
Finnair’s Q2 proved another weak quarter due to large costs of industrial action and the North Atlantic capacity increases’ drag on profitability as demand hasn’t been high enough.
Finnair’s Q2 revenue fell a bit short of estimates as ticket prices developed slightly softer than estimated. The EUR 10m comparable EBIT missed estimates by about EUR 20m as Finnair updated its estimates regarding the effects of industrial action and North Atlantic routes’ demand.
Finnair reports Q2 results on Jul 16. Industrial action has continued to affect performance, while the earnings gains likely to be seen from H2 onwards are already priced in.
Finnair’s Q1 earnings disappointment was due to three factors, including soft top line, costs of industrial action as well as generally higher costs. Earnings trend could again turn in Q2, but we still see too many sources of uncertainty.
Finnair’s Q1 revenue came in a bit soft relative to estimates, while earnings were clearly lower than estimated even when excluding the negative impact of industrial action. We hence underestimated Finnair’s cost items. Finnair retains its previous FY’25 guidance, however it added notes on the cost the on-going industrial action will have on figures over the year.
Finnair reports Q1 results on Apr 29. Finnair should still be on track to post annual EBIT gains, yet many questions remain.
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- Annual report 2024
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Company news
Finnair Plc Stock Exchange Release 20 March 2024 at 10:00p.m. EET
Finnair Plc ("Finnair" or "Company") has today, 20 March 2024, on the previously announced reverse split date executed a reverse split, i.e. the reduction of the number of shares in the Company, and a related directed share issue without consideration, redemption of shares and cancellation of shares. After these measures, the new number of shares in the Company is 204,811,392. The new number of shares has been registered with the Trade Register maintained by the Finnish Patent and Registration Office today, 20 March 2024, and trading with the new total number of shares in the Company commences on Thursday 21 March 2024 with a new ISIN code FI4000567029. Finnair's trading code FIA1S will remain the same after the reverse split.
Finnair's Annual General Meeting resolved on 18 March 2024 on the reverse split and on a related redemption of shares so that after carrying out the reverse split, every 100 shares in the Company corresponds to one (1) share in the Company. Concurrently with the execution of the reverse split, the Board of Directors of the Company has today resolved on implementing the directed share issue without consideration resolved by the Annual General Meeting in which the Company has issued without consideration a total of 4,714,922 treasury shares held by the Company in such manner that the number of shares in each book-entry account holding Finnair's shares has been made divisible by 100. The aggregate market value of the shares issued without consideration is EUR 140,976.17, based on the closing price of 20 March 2024.
After the directed share issue, the Company has redeemed without compensation 99 shares for each 100 shares in the Company, in accordance with the resolution of the Annual General Meeting. The Company's shares redeemed in connection with the reverse split have been cancelled immediately. After the reverse split, Finnair holds 354,315 treasury shares.
The aim of the reverse split is to facilitate trading conditions of the shares by increasing the value of a single share as well as to improve the price formation of the shares. The procedure has been explained in more detail in Finnair's stock exchange release on the resolutions of the Company's Annual General Meeting, issued on 18 March 2024.
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Company Facts
Guidance
Revenue in 2025 will be approximately EUR 3.1bn, while comparable EBIT will be within the range of EUR 30–60m
Financial targets
Finnair aims to achieve a comparable EBIT margin of 6-8% by the end of 2029
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