Finnair - Q3 results didn’t meet estimates
Finnair’s Q3 revenue was lower than estimated as ticket prices developed softer than we expected. Finnair did a bit better than we estimated in terms of costs, but this wasn’t enough to make up for the shortfall in revenue and Finnair’s EUR 50.7m comparable EBIT fell almost EUR 15m short of the estimates. Finnair also adjusts its FY’25 guidance downwards due to many reasons, including weakness in the North Atlantic traffic. Finnair’s updated comparable EBIT guidance midpoint implies EUR 46.5m for Q4’25.
- Finnair Q3 revenue grew by 2.0% y/y to EUR 834.9m vs the EUR 860.1m/847.9m Evli/consensus estimates. Passenger revenue grew only 1.6% y/y as ticket prices still developed softer than we estimated.
- Comparable EBIT was EUR 50.7m, compared to the EUR 64.4m/63.6m Evli/consensus estimates.
- Fuel costs were EUR 234m vs our EUR 235m estimate, whereas staff costs amounted to EUR 134m vs our EUR 128m estimate. All other OPEX+D&A were EUR 440m, compared to our EUR 453m estimate.
- Cost per Available Seat Kilometer was 7.49 eurocents vs our estimate of 7.60 eurocents.
- Finnair guides FY’25 revenue to be approximately EUR 3.1bn and its comparable EBIT within the range of EUR 30-60m (previously EUR 30-130m). The new guidance is due to the continued weak demand and yield environment in North Atlantic traffic, the indirect effects of industrial action on demand in broader terms, unplanned aircraft repair and maintenance needs, and fuel price developments. The new EBIT guidance midpoint implies EUR 46.5m for Q4’25. Finnair plans to increase its total capacity, measured by ASK, some 2% in FY’25.