Operational environment

The year 2025 was eventful for financial markets. In April, US President Donald Trump imposed import tariffs, which initially raised fears of an economic recession and led to a decline in equity markets. However, the short duration of the trade war and the fact that most countries refrained from retaliatory measures limited its economic impact, which ultimately proved to be clearly smaller than expected. According to consensus forecasts, the global economy grew by 2.7 percent in 2025, the US economy by around 2.0 percent, and the euro area economy by approximately 1.4 percent.

New Artificial intelligence (AI) models became increasingly capable, and investments in data centers and AI infrastructure accelerated further. Limited availability of electricity emerged as a significant bottleneck for AI development in the United States. Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine continued, and defense investments in Europe increased. China's export restrictions on rare earth metals and the US's restrictions on advanced semiconductors played a key role in relations between the two countries. The price of gold rose by approximately 65.6 percent, while the price of oil fell by about 16.4 percent.

The year 2025 was profitable for global equity markets. In the US, the S&P 500 index rose by about 17.3 percent in US dollar terms (3.9 percent in euro terms). In Europe, the STOXX 600 index delivered a return of around 20.6 percent. The Finnish equity market performed particularly well, with the Nasdaq Helsinki index rising as much as 35.3 percent. In emerging markets, the MSCI EM index returned approximately 18.5 percent. Emerging markets were supported by the weakening of the US dollar.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its key interest rates three times during the year, by a total of 75 basis points. In December, the Fed’s key interest rate ranged between 3.50–3.75 percent. By contrast, the European Central Bank lowered its key interest four times by a total of 100 basis points. Returns on fixed income investments were positive in 2025. The value of higher-rated investment grade corporate bonds increased by 3.0 percent, while lower-rated high yield bonds rose by 4.9 percent. The value of euro area government bonds increased by 0.6 percent, and emerging market bonds rose by 11.6 percent.
 

Updated in connection with the publication of Evli Plc's Financial Statements Bulletin 1–12/2025 on January 27, 2026.