Operational environment

In the financial markets, the first half of 2026 was dominated by sharp price fluctuations and an unusually high level of uncertainty. The year started on a positive note, with equity prices rising broadly, supported by favorable economic prospects and improved earnings forecasts. In March, the mood shifted abruptly when a war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp increase in oil prices, which raised investors’ risk aversion in the markets. In the second quarter, the situation quickly turned around as peace negotiations in the Middle East progressed, leading to a strong market recovery. As the situation in the Middle East improved, market attention focused heavily on AI, which boosted especially those sectors concentrating on supporting infrastructure and hardware. 

In Finland, economic development showed cautiously positive signs: gross domestic product (GDP) turned to growth, real wages strengthened, and consumer confidence improved significantly, especially during the second quarter. 

Despite the turbulence at the start of the year, total returns for the half-year period were strong across all major markets. Global equity markets returned 14.6 percent as measured by the MSCI World Index. Emerging market equities benefited the most from the AI theme: the MSCI EM Index returned 27.4 percent. Japan achieved a return of 17.4 percent. In the United States, the S&P 500 Index returned 13.3 percent, in Europe the STOXX 600 Index 11.0 percent, and the Helsinki Stock Exchange 8.8 percent. 

In the fixed income markets, the increase in oil prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz accelerated inflation in the second quarter. As a result, the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent at its June meeting. The US Federal Reserve, on the other hand, made no rate changes in the first half of the year, keeping the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent. 

The first quarter was challenging for fixed income markets, but over the entire half-year period, fixed income investments produced positive returns. Government bonds returned 1.3 percent, investment grade corporate bonds rose by 1.4 percent, and lower-rated high yield bonds by 1.9 percent. Emerging market bonds returned 1.6 percent.

Updated in connection with the publication of Evli Plc's Half Year Financial Report 1–6/2026 on July 14, 2026.