Operational environment

The first nine months of 2025 were a period of mixed market conditions. The beginning of the year was marked by geopolitical uncertainty, nervousness caused by the new U.S. tariff policy, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. These factors increased market turbulence and weighed down global equity prices during the first quarter. However, fundamental economic indicators, such as the labor markets, remained strong, and as inflationary pressures continued to ease, investor confidence began to recover.

In the second quarter, the markets turned towards recovery as the U.S. administration signed preliminary trade agreements with several partner countries, alleviating fears of a widespread trade war. This laid the foundation for strong performance in the third quarter, when risk appetite truly returned to the markets.

In the United States, the S&P 500 index rose by approximately 13.7 percent in dollar terms (about 1.1 percent in euro terms) from January to September, driven especially by the technology and communications sectors. Europe also saw strong development: the broad STOXX index returned around 13 percent. The Helsinki Stock Exchange followed the positive trend, with the Nasdaq Helsinki index rising by about 19 percent. In emerging markets, led by Asia and Latin America, there was significant growth supported by a weakening dollar and a positive market sentiment related to artificial intelligence.

In the fixed income markets, central banks’ actions diverged. The European Central Bank eased its monetary policy in June by lowering its key interest rates but kept rates unchanged at its September meeting. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate steady in the first half of the year and made its first rate cut in September in line with market expectations. Fixed income investments produced positive returns during the review period. The value of higher-rated corporate bonds rose by 2.8 percent, while the value of lower-rated high yield bonds increased by 4.2 percent. The value of euro area government bonds also rose modestly, by 0.4 percent.

In currency markets, the strengthening of the euro against the dollar was one of the most visible trends—the exchange rate increased by nearly 14 percent since the beginning of the year, reflecting the divergence in monetary policy and market confidence in the euro area.
 

Updated in connection with the publication of Evli Plc's Interim Report 1–9/2025 on October 24, 2025.