Operational environment

The first nine months of 2026 were eventful in the markets. After the geopolitical turbulence at the beginning of the year, the third quarter was calm on the surface. The global economy has remained stronger than expected, supported by investments, consumption, and solid corporate earnings growth. 

The outlook is overshadowed by ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, high public debt, persistent inflation, and the increase in long-term interest rates. Investments in artificial intelligence remain a key driver of growth, but at the same time, high expectations, competition, and cybersecurity risks related to them increase uncertainty. Purchasing Managers’ Indexes indicate continued growth in the United States, Europe, and Asia. In the United States, private consumption, employment, and productivity support economic activity. 

Finland's economic recovery continued at the beginning of the third quarter: production grew yearon-year in July–August. According to the Bank of Finland, GDP is expected to grow faster this year than estimated in June. GDP is forecast to grow by 1.7% in 2026. On the downside, unemployment remained high, consumer confidence weakened in September, and rising fuel prices pushed up inflation. 

The strongest rise in equity markets slowed after extremely strong second-quarter earnings reports. Global equity markets returned 17.3 percent as measured by the MSCI World Index. Emerging market equities benefited the most from the AI theme: the MSCI EM Index returned 27.9 percent. Japan achieved a return of 26.8 percent. In the United States, the S&P 500 Index returned 16.7 percent, in Europe the STOXX 600 Index 10.2 percent, and the Helsinki Stock Exchange 13.8 percent. 

Long-term government bond yields rose sharply due to strong nominal growth, persistent inflation, large financing needs, and higher risk premiums. In many countries, long-term yields reached their highest levels in over a decade. Fixed income returns turned negative in the third quarter. The value of high-credit-rated corporate bonds decreased by 1.3% year-to-date, while the value of lower-rated high-yield corporate bonds increased by 0.3%. Government bond values fell by 3.2%, and emerging market bonds declined by 3.3%.

Updated in connection with the publication of Evli Plc's Interim Report 1–9/2026 on October 28, 2026.