Marimekko - Resilience to continue
Marimekko's Q4 came in slightly below our estimates, with profitability disappointing, particularly due to higher fixed costs. We expect stable and resilient performance to continue in 2026.
Q4 results on the softer side
Marimekko's Q4 net sales of EUR 54.7m (Evli est. EUR 57.2m) grew 1% y/y but fell short of our expectations in both international and domestic markets. APAC performed strongly, with retail sales up 24% and wholesale up 9%, resulting in 5% international sales growth, despite net sales in Scandinavia and Europe falling short of expectations. Domestic sales declined by 1%, driven primarily by a 4% drop in retail sales. Wholesale sales in Finland were up 3% supported by non-recurring promotional deliveries, though to a lesser extent than we had anticipated. Adj. EBIT of EUR 8.8m declined y/y and came well below our EUR 10.3m estimate, driven by higher fixed costs despite a slightly improved relative sales margin.
No tweaks in the guidance
This year marks the fourth year where the company guides net sales growth and comparable EBIT margin of approximately 16-19%. Following estimate revisions, we now model 2026E net sales of EUR 200m (+6% y/y) and EBIT margin of 17.7%. Management noted that Q1 will be slightly softer in the two largest regions (Finland and APAC) though both are expected to grow for the full year. We expect performance to accelerate in H2, driven by non-recurring wholesale deliveries in Finland weighed weighted toward the second half, following the same pattern as 2025 but at higher volumes. In APAC, we expect continued store expansion to support high single-digit regional growth. Marimekko's net store count grew by 6 at year-end 2025, with 3 in APAC. In line with last year, the company plans to open 10-15 stores in 2026, most of which in Asia, and we expect net additions to continue.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 12.5 (prev. EUR 14.0)
Following the Q4 earnings miss and downward estimate revisions, we lower our TP to EUR 12.5. Despite this, Marimekko trades attractively at EV/EBIT 13–11x and P/E 17–15x. Relative to peers and its historical multiples, the stock offers modest upside, supporting our ACCUMULATE rating.