Marimekko - A solid finish to the year expected
Marimekko is set to report its Q4'25 results on Thursday, February 12. We expect Q3 momentum to have carried into Q4 despite weak market conditions, driving mid-single-digit sales growth and a y/y improvement in EBIT.
Continued resilience expected in Q4
During the first nine months of the year, Marimekko’s net sales increased by 5%, with domestic sales up by ~3% and international sales growing by ~8%. International growth was broader than expected, with Europe and Scandinavia showing particularly strong growth of 26% and 15%, respectively, while APAC, the anticipated main growth engine, posted roughly flat sales. In the Q3 note, the full-year outlook for APAC was lowered, with sales now expected to be in line with or slightly above the previous year’s level. Ahead of the Q4 report, we note no material changes in overall market conditions, although Finnish retail trade data showed slight improvement toward year-end. Overall, we expect Marimekko to continue demonstrating resilience in its Q4 results.
Expecting growth across the board
We anticipate growth across regions in Q4. In Finland, we expect sales to have grown ~4%, as wholesale sales should continue to benefit from non-recurring promotional deliveries weighted toward H2 last year, though the largest impact likely occurred in Q3. We project international growth of ~9% in Q4, driven by continued momentum in Europe and Scandinavia, the Paris and Hong Kong flagship openings, and anticipated net store increases in APAC through the loose-franchise model. We expect profitability to have improved slightly, despite a modest increase in OPEX, driven by higher volumes and a stronger gross margin. Gross margin should improve slightly from last year’s comparison figures, which were impacted by elevated logistics costs, partly offset by lower high-margin licensing income this year. After minor changes, we estimate Q4 net sales of EUR 57.2m (+6% y/y) and adj. EBIT margin of 18.0% (Q4’24: 17.1%). We expect a dividend proposal of EUR 0.41 per share, with no extraordinary dividend despite a strong balance sheet. In addition to the results, our attention is on the outlook for 2026. We expect the 2026 guidance to align with last year's and will be watching for any updates on outlook and strategic priorities.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 14.0
Following minor estimate revisions, we maintain our TP of EUR 14.0 and ACCUMULATE rating. Marimekko currently trades at EV/EBIT of 16–14x and P/E of 21–18x on our estimates for 2025-26E, representing a modest discount to our combined premium and luxury goods peer group.