Alisa Bank |

Digital bank focused on own balance sheet lending
Banks | Finland

Alisa Bank - For now a waiting game

16.02.2024 | Company update

Alisa Bank’s H2 results were quite in line with our estimates. All eyes our now on if and when the company is able to strengthen its equity capital to enable growth.

H2 corresponded quite well to our estimates
Alisa Bank reported results that were quite well in line with our estimates. Total income during H2/23 amounted to EUR 8.3m (Evli EUR 8.2m) and PTP to EUR -0.1m (Evli EUR 0.1m). Net interest income amounted to EUR 7.3m (Evli EUR 7.2m) and net fee and commission income to EUR 0.9m (Evli EUR 1.0m). Total OPEX amounted to EUR 5.7m (Evli EUR 5.7m). and impairment of receivables to EUR -2.8m Evli EUR -2.4m). Alisa Bank expects its total income, should the actions to strengthen the company’s equity capital during H1 be achieved, to increase in 2024 compared with 2023 while the results before one-offs and taxes is expected to be slightly loss-making in H1/2024. 

Awaiting news on strengthening of equity capital
Alisa Bank’s future development remains heavily reliant upon raising additional capital. Management comments suggest relative confidence in this being achieved during H1/2024. This would enable the much needed growth especially in consumer lending. The cost base is currently in quite good shape and in our view more likely to increase to support growth ambitions. The addition of the new savings account products in Germany and Netherlands in late 2023 appear to have been quite successful, with the deposit base having grown to EUR 388m after the reporting period (2023: EUR 269m). With the current loan portfolio level (2023: EUR 168.5m) allowing around break-even earnings, the next step would be to grow the loan portfolio past EUR 200m to start to benefit from the company’s scalability, which could be achievable in 2024 should the company’s capital raising needs be met. 

HOLD (SELL) with a target price of EUR 0.2
With the share price decline since our last update, we upgrade our rating to HOLD and retain our TP of EUR 0.2.  Uncertainty remains high due to dependance upon  strengthening the equity capital.

Alisa Bank - Quite well in line with expectations

15.02.2024 | Earnings Flash

Alisa Bank’s H2 profitability was slightly below our expectations, with PTP at EUR -0.1m (Evli EUR 0.1m). H2 overall was quite well in line with our expectations on income and OPEX.

  • Total income during H2/23 amounted to EUR 8.3m (Evli EUR 8.2m). Net interest income amounted to EUR 7.3m (Evli EUR 7.2m) and net fee and commission income to EUR 0.9m (Evli EUR 1.0m). 
  • During 2023 the credit base for corporate financing in corporate financing increased by 31% y/y, while the credit base in consumer customers remained at previous year levels. 
  • The loan portfolio (before expected credit losses) at the end of H2 amounted to EUR 172.9m (163.8m) and the deposit base amounted to EUR 268.9m (246.8m). After the reporting period Alisa Bank’s deposit base grew to EUR 388m.
  • The pre-tax profit during H2 amounted to EUR -0.1m (Evli EUR 0.1m). Total OPEX amounted to EUR 5.7m (Evli EUR 5.7m). The main deviation came from the impairment of receivables (EUR -2.8m/-2.4m act./Evli). 
  • Earnings per share amounted to EUR 0.00 compared with our estimate of EUR 0.00.
  • CET1 and the CET1 ratio amounted to EUR 17.7m and 12.0% and total capital ratio to 15.2% 
  • The cost / income ratio amounted to 68%.
  • Outlook for 2024: The bank’s total income, should the actions to strengthen the company’s equity capital during H1 be achieved, is expected to increase in 2024 compared with 2023. The result for H1/2024 before one-offs and taxes is expected to be slightly loss-making.
  • Dividend proposal: Alisa Bank’s BoD proposes that no dividend be paid for FY 2023 (Evli EUR 0.00)

Alisa Bank - Significant challenges

26.10.2023 | Company update

Alisa Bank’s equity story took a hit from challenges relating to strengthening of the capital structure and growth is delayed. We lower our TP to EUR 0.2 (0.37), rating now SELL (HOLD).

Capital structure strengthening not going as planned
Alisa Bank issued a profit warning on October 24th in terms of its income development. Previously the company expected its income to increase in H2 compared with H1, now estimated to decrease. The bank’s profit before non-recurring items is still estimated to be positive in 2023. Alisa Bank’s procedures aimed at strengthening the capital structure have not progress on schedule due to the unfavourable market situation, earlier aimed for H2/2023. The decrease in income in H2 compared with H1 is due to the bank’s capital adequacy target limiting lending, as well as prudence in lending, especially for business customers, where the weakened economic situation in particular for the construction sector is starting to show.

Clear setback to growth ambitions
The situation is a double-negative for Alisa Bank, as without a strengthening of the capital structure the capital adequacy targets hinder growth in the loan portfolio, while the market situation in itself is further unsupportive of growth. Based on the current outlook we assume that additional financing will be secured in 2024, delaying the growth ambitions significantly. We have as such lowered our coming year estimates notably. 

SELL (HOLD) with a target price of EUR 0.2 (0.37)
With the challenges in strengthening the balance sheet, a severe dent is in made in the company’s equity story, as the growth outlook and as such reaching any meaningful levels of profitability is delayed and highly uncertain. The company targets a ROE of over 15% by 2026. Without additional funding and related loan book growth potential, Alisa Bank will have a hard time achieving a ROE figure above the lower single digits. As such the current valuation (2023e P/B ~0.8x) is a stretch and with the uncertainty and risks related to the financing we lower our TP to EUR 0.2 (0.37) and lower our rating to SELL (HOLD).

Alisa Bank - Slow near-term development

21.08.2023 | Company update

Alisa Bank’s total income in H fell short of our estimates, PTP slightly better than expected. Capital constraints limit near-term growth, but the outlook still remains fairly good once additional capital has been raised.

Total income below expectations, slightly better PTP
Alisa Bank’s H1 results were slightly better than anticipated on bottom-line level. Total income of EUR 8.4m was below our estimates (Evli EUR 9.5m) mainly due to the lower than estimated net fee and commission income of EUR 0.8m (Evli EUR 1.7m). Total OPEX of EUR 5.7m corresponded to our estimates and the C/I-ratio improved to 69% but still well above desired long-term levels. PTP amounted to EUR 0.4m (Evli EUR 0.1m), with lower than anticipated impairment of receivables (act./Evli EUR 2.2m/3.7m) compensating for the lower than estimated total income. 

Capital constraints limiting growth in the near-term
We continue to expect to see the slow growth in H1 be reflected also in H2. The company expects income to grow in H2 compared with H1, with the impact of market interest rates in our view to be the larger driver behind growth. We currently anticipate only a small growth in the loan portfolio. The raising of additional capital remains instrumental in enabling more rapid growth of the loan book, which we are confident will happen during H2. The consumer lending environment remains slightly more challenging due to the higher interest rates and stricter lending policies and capital constraints while corporate customer lending has grown in particular due to invoice financing. We expect to see a pick-up in growth in 2024e, but current market conditions remain a challenge in achieving the annual growth target of the loan book of more than 25%, and limited OPEX growth needs to support improved bottom-line figures. 

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.37
We see no notable changes to our views on Alisa Bank due to the H1 report. 2023 is set to remain on the weaker side on growth and earnings while the company continues to build foundations for ramping up growth in the coming years.  

Alisa Bank - Fairly decent first half

18.08.2023 | Earnings Flash

Alisa Bank’s H1 profitability was slightly better than anticipated, with PTP at EUR 0.4m (Evli EUR 0.1m). Total income was below our expectations but lower expected and realized credit losses made up for the difference. Profits in H2 expected to increase from H1.

  • Total income during H1/23 amounted to EUR 8.4m (Evli EUR 9.5m). Net interest income amounted to EUR 7.4m (Evli EUR 7.8m) and net fee and commission income to EUR 0.8m (Evli EUR 1.7m). 
  • In H1 the volume of funding in corporate financing increased 19% y/y, driven by invoice financing, while the credit portfolio in consumer customers remained at previous year levels. 
  • The loan portfolio (before expected credit losses) at the end of H1 amounted to EUR 170.3m (163.8m) and the deposits amounted to EUR 241.7m (246.8m).
  • The pre-tax profit during H1 amounted to EUR 0.4m (Evli EUR 0.1m). Although the total income fell short of our estimates, the impairment of receivables was lower than expected at EUR -2.2m (Evli -3.7m). Total OPEX was quite in line with expectations. 
  • Earnings per share amounted to EUR 0.00 compared with our estimate of EUR 0.00.
  • CET1 and the CET1 ratio amounted to EUR 17.7m and 12.0% and total capital ratio to 15.5% 
  • The cost / income ratio amounted to 69%.
  • Outlook for 2023: The bank’s profits in H2 are expected to increase from H1. The result before non-recurring items is estimated to be positive in 2023. Total capital adequacy target set at 16%. Aim to strengthen own capital during H2.

Alisa Bank - Awaiting pick-up in growth

16.08.2023 | Preview

Alisa Bank reports its H1 results on August 18th. The loan portfolio development YTD has been flat, with growing interest rates on deposits adding pressure on H2. The growth potential remains in place, but more proof is needed. We adjust our TP to EUR 0.37 (0.40), HOLD-rating intact.

Loan portfolio development flat despite volume growth
Alisa Bank (Fellow Bank until April, 2023) will report its H1 results on August 18th. The company’s loan portfolio growth YTD has been sluggish and more or less flat at EUR 157.8m in July. This, despite a rather steady growth in monthly figures for intermediated financing, having seen a peak of nearly EUR 40m in May. Deposits have likewise remained flat, at EUR 249.4m in July. The loan book has remained mostly within the EUR 160-170m mark, which according to the company would be needed to reach positive profit levels. Our net earnings estimate is at EUR 0.1m, with uncertainty relating to realized and expected credit losses.

Growth needed to counteract increasing interest expenses
We have lowered our estimates for the remained of the year, now expecting near-zero net earnings. The challenge for Alisa Bank in our view right now is the discrepancy between the loan book and deposits. The company has been actively raising the interest on its deposits throughout H2, now at 3%. Without growth of the loan book, interest expenses will start to become a burden on earnings. Therefore, our key interest in the H1 report lies on the company’s growth outlook and more recent new products, such as the Banking-as-a-Service cooperation with Talenom. 

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.37 (0.40)
With the start-up of operations, rebranding (and expected focus on marketing), new products and lending activity remaining fairly good, despite a slower start to 2023, growth potential still remains. Awaiting more signs of growth and on our lowered estimates, we adjust our TP to EUR 0.37 (0.40), HOLD-rating intact.

Fellow Bank - Heavy lifting done, time to scale

17.02.2023 | Company update

Fellow Bank’s outlook for 2023 remains quite good and we expect continued growth and positive profitability to be achieved. We retain our TP of EUR 0.40 and HOLD-rating.

H2 all in all slightly below our expectations
Fellow Bank’s H2 results came in slightly below our expectations. Total income amounted to EUR 7.9m (Evli EUR 7.1m). Net income of EUR 6.6m was quite in line with expectations (Evli EUR 6.8m), while net fee and commission income of EUR 1.5m beat our expectations (Evli EUR 0.3m), affected by changes to recognition of commission fees under IFRS 15. The pre-tax profit during H2 amounted to EUR -2.3m (Evli EUR -0.7m), with the difference compared with our estimates arising mainly from larger than estimated expected and realized credit losses, with total OPEX also above our estimates. OPEX was still affected by exceptional items relating to the startup of operations of some EUR 0.7m. The total capital ratio amounted to 16.8% (target adjusted: 18% -> 16%) and H2 cost / income ratio to 76%. 

Growth and positive profitability expected in 2023
Fellow Bank expects revenues to grow in 2023 and to achieve a positive profit level on a monthly basis during H1/2023. The market environment poses some threats to lending volume growth, with Fellow Bank having adopted somewhat stricter lending policies. We currently nonetheless expect solid y/y growth in 2023 mainly driven by the ramp-up focused comparison period but also good loan portfolio growth. We have further raised our 2023e PTP estimate to EUR 2.9m (1.8m) following a readjustment of the cost base assumptions. We expect 2023 to be quite busy for Fellow Bank with the launch and ramp up of new services. The company’s small business in Poland is also most likely to be divested and the further strengthening of the company’s capital is to be expected.  

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.40
Valuation upside continues to remain limited in the near-term, affected further by some market uncertainties and on 2024 estimates, compared with peer multiples, current valuation levels appear fair. We retain our TP of EUR 0.40 and HOLD-rating.

Fellow Bank - Earnings below expectations

16.02.2023 | Earnings Flash

Fellow Bank’s top line figures were better than expected, while higher than expected opex and expected and realized credit losses saw earnings fall below our expectations. Positive profit levels on a monthly basis are expected to be reached during H1/2023.

  • Total income during H2/22 amounted to EUR 7.9m (Evli EUR 7.1m). Net interest income amounted to EUR 6.6m (Evli EUR 6.8m) and net fee and commission income to EUR 1.5m (Evli EUR 0.3m). 
  • In H2 lending volumes exceeded those of H1 by 43% and the target increase of 46% in the loan portfolio for personal customers was reached. 
  • The loan portfolio at the end H2 amounted to EUR 163.8m and the deposit amounted to EUR 246.8m.
  • The pre-tax profit during H2 amounted to EUR -2.3m (Evli EUR -0.7m). The difference compared with our estimates was mainly due to a larger than estimated expected and realized credit losses, with total OPEX also above our estimates.
  • Earnings per share amounted to EUR -0.03 compared with our estimate of EUR -0.01.
  • CET1 and the CET1 ratio amounted to EUR 17.7m and 12.6% and total capital ratio to 16.8% 
  • The cost / income ratio amounted to 113%.
  • Outlook for 2023: The bank’s revenues are estimated to grow from 2022 and a positive profit level on a monthly basis is estimated to be reached during H1/2023. Capital adequacy target set at 16%.
  • Dividend proposal: The BoD proposes that no dividends be paid (Evli EUR 0.00)

Fellow Bank - So far, so good

31.01.2023 | Company update

Fellow Bank has met the expectations that were set out for 2022. The market environment changes provide some near-term benefits but increase uncertainty regarding the lending outlook. We adjust our TP to EUR 0.40 (EUR 0.42), HOLD-rating intact.

On track with set out expectations for 2022
Fellow Bank’s development during H2 has progressed in line with expectations set out earlier. The loan portfolio at the end of 2022 was at EUR 159.9m (target > EUR 150m). Deposits amounted to EUR 246.8m, showing an expected more modest growth. The provided funding amounts on a monthly level have also showed a slight positive trend, with the monthly average (R3m) near EUR 28m. Actions to strengthen equity were also completed as expected with the issue of an EUR 6.1m debenture loan during the fall.

Market environment development positives and negatives
The interest rate environment and macroeconomic uncertainties bring some added flavour to the mix, the effects of which we currently view as slightly net negative for Fellow Bank. The effect on near-term expected net interest income is positive, although the higher interest rates on deposits and current loan portfolio to deposit ratio reduces some of the positive impact. The interest rate hikes coupled with the macroeconomic uncertainties, however, increase the uncertainty in the growth of funding volumes going forward. The effects so far appear to have been mostly visible through somewhat stricter lending policies and higher loan loss provisions, but we foresee some increases in competition through pricing going forward.  The overall financial impacts on our estimates for the coming years are not substantial through the higher expected interest income and somewhat lower growth and higher loan loss expectations. 

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.40
Fellow Bank’s investment case relies on the growth of its loan book in the coming years and the benefits of scalability. The current outlook has in our view slightly weakened, and we adjust our target price to EUR 0.40 (EUR 0.42), HOLD-rating intact.

Fellow Bank - Decent start to banking operations

26.08.2022 | Company update

Fellow Bank’s H1 figures were weak due to ECL changes driven by the loan book growth and non-recurring items but operatively decent. Additional capital (T2) is sought to support growth. Early growth figures look promising and profitability scaling potential remains, albeit at a slower pace than we previously expected.

Weak H1 earnings but operatively decent figures
Fellow Bank reported H1 results which operatively were slightly better than we estimated but the change in expected credit losses due to the loan book growth clearly exceeded our expectations and as such the profitability was below expectations (PTP act./Evli EUR -7.4m/-2.3m). Realized credit losses were on a moderate level (EUR 0.7m). Total income of EUR 2.4m (Evli EUR 2.8m) was skewed by the old P2P loans while NII of EUR 2.5m exceeded our expectations (Evli EUR 2.0m). Total OPEX excl. non-recurring items was quite in line with our expectations. After starting the banking operations, Fellow Bank’s business lending and consumer lending volumes increased by 49% and 35% respectively compared with the beginning of the year, supported by competitiveness of the new operating model.

Additional capital needed to support loan book growth
Fellow Bank estimates that the loss in H2 will be clearly smaller than in H1. Potential for positive monthly profit levels during H1/23 is seen, assuming a loan portfolio of around EUR 180m and the bank’s estimated cost level and lending interest margin. The total capital ratio was at 19.4% and the need for additional capital to continue growth kicked in sooner than we anticipated due to the H1 losses. Fellow Bank announced actions aiming at the issue of a Tier 2 debenture in the early autumn.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.42
Apart from the clear difference to our estimates in the non-cash ECL changes and the faster than anticipated need for additional capital, performance was quite as expected, and growth figures look promising. Profitability scaling due to growth ambitions appears slightly slower than we previously anticipated but intact. We retain our HOLD-rating and TP of EUR 0.42.

Fellow Bank - Operations launch burdened figures

25.08.2022 | Earnings Flash

Fellow Bank started its banking operations in April and financial figures were accordingly burdened. Lending volumes showed positive signs aided by the new, more competitive business model. Fellow Bank started actions to strengthen the capital adequacy to support growth after the reporting period.

  • Total income during H1/22 amounted to EUR 2.3m (Evli EUR 2.8m). Net interest income amounted to EUR 2.5m (Evli EUR 2.0m) and net fee and commission income to EUR 0.0m (Evli EUR 0.8m). 
  • After starting the banking operations, business lending and consumer lending volumes increased by 49% and 35% respectively compared with the beginning of the year
  • The loan portfolio at the end H1 amounted to EUR 114.5m and the deposit portfolio was EUR 223.4m.
  • The pre-tax profit during H1 amounted to EUR -7.4m (Evli EUR -2.3m). The difference compared with our estimates was mainly due to a larger than estimated ECL change due to growth in the loan book, total OPEX also slightly above our estimates at EUR 5.6m (Evli EUR 5.1m). Profitability was burdened by non-recurring costs relating to the launch of banking growth investments
  • Earnings per share amounted to EUR -0.1 compared with our estimate of EUR -0.02.
  • CET1 and the CET1 ratio amounted to EUR 19.6m and 19.4%. After the reporting period, Fellow Bank started actions aiming at the issue of a Tier 2 debenture in the early autumn.
  • The cost / income ratio amounted to 235%.

Fellow Bank - Initiate coverage with HOLD

07.06.2022 | Company report

Fellow Bank is through its new operating model in a better position to accelerate growth and compete in new customer sub-segments. 2022 will be heavily affected by the transition but will set a foundation for clear growth and profitability improvements. We initiate coverage of Fellow Bank with a HOLD-rating and TP of EUR 0.42.

Digital bank focused on own balance sheet lending
Fellow Bank is a digital bank providing lending and banking and financial services to individuals and SME’s and offering savers a return on their deposits. Through a recent merger, the company is shifting towards lending from its own balance sheet, having been established as an international marketplace lending platform. The new operating model and cheaper form of funding in our view offers additional growth potential and improves the company’s competitiveness, which opens up potential to target new customer sub-segments.

Seeking over 25% annual growth of loan portfolio
The company’s financial targets for 2022-2026 are: annual growth of more than 25% of the loan portfolio, a return on equity of more than 15% by the end of the target period and a capital adequacy ratio of at least 18% (T1). 2022 will be a tougher year financially due to exceptional costs relating to the merger and the build up the company’s loan book. We expect the company’s financials to turn on a clearly more favourable path in 2023 with the buildup of the loan book and further new growth. We expect profitability to pick-up during 2023-2024 with the growth and scalability of the operating model and expect the ROE to improve to 13.2% by 2024.

HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 0.42
We initiate coverage of Fellow Bank with a target price of EUR 0.42 and HOLD-rating. Valuation is currently rather stretched when comparing with peers. Fellow Bank is however still in the early stages of its planned growth phase and the near-term potential for rapid growth in our view presents a justifiable reason to stay along for the early stages of the company’s growth story.

Fellow Bank - video interview with CEO Teemu Nyholm

07.06.2022
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Video presentation

Company Facts

Guidance

The bank’s total income, should the actions to strengthen the company’s equity capital during H1 be achieved, is expected to increase in 2024 compared with 2023. The result for H1/2024 before one-offs and taxes is expected to be slightly loss-making.

Financial targets

Financial targets 2022-2026: annual loan portfolio growth >25%, return on equity > 15% by end of period and capital adequacy ratio of at least 18% (T1).

Share price (EUR)


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