Tekova - Q1 revenue supported by project completions; margins to soften
We expect solid revenue growth in Q1, supported by project completions, but with some near-term margin pressure from recent investments.
Revenue supported by project timing
We forecast Tekova’s Q1 revenue at EUR 24.5m, implying modest year-on-year growth. The completion of two large projects should support revenue, as the company typically recognizes a significant share of revenue in the final stages of projects.
Near-term margin pressure from growth investments
We expect EBIT to decline year-on-year to EUR 1.9m (vs. EUR 2.6m last year), reflecting higher personnel costs and the expansion into Southwest Finland. While these costs weigh on short-term profitability, they should support future growth.
Order intake supports outlook
Recent strong order intake, including a large self-developed project (~10,000 m²), underpins revenue visibility over the next 12 months and provides support for 2027 growth.
Retail exposure a potential risk
The bankruptcy of Indoor Group introduces uncertainty in the retail property market. If a significant number of retail spaces enter the market simultaneously, it could weigh on demand for new construction. That said, Tekova’s exposure may be limited, as the company typically focuses on larger retail units.
Attractive valuation supports risk/reward
Tekova trades at around 8x P/E on our current-year estimates, which we view as undemanding given its net cash position, solid margins, and market position. There is also potential upside to profitability if self-developed projects exceed expectations later this year. We maintain accumulation with target price unchanged at EUR 1.45.