Oriola - Expecting steady progress

Update to new reporting structure
Oriola reports Q1 results on April 29th. Oriola recently revised its segment reporting, which will be in effect from Q1. The most visible P&L impact comes from the reporting of net sales of products purchased into own stock, which will be recognized on net basis. For 2026 our estimate revisions are mainly due to the change in net sales reporting, but we have further slightly reduced our profitability expectations partly due to anticipated cost inflation and partly due to lowered expectations for profit contribution of the Products segment. We estimate net sales of EUR 50.9m (Q1/25: 50.9m) and an adj. EBITDA of EUR 8.5m in Q1 (Q1/25: 7.5m).

Lowered estimates for the coming years
With the transparency brought by the new reporting structure, we have reviewed our coming year estimates. We continue to anticipate growth in adj. EBITDA but lower our expectations for margin development and as such assume a larger share of the earnings growth in the coming few years being driven by volume development. Fuel prices will cause some cost inflation, should current levels persist, but otherwise we assume limited OPEX growth. Cost savings from on-going investments should start to show 2027-2028, but we anticipate additional costs during the transfer of operations to the new logistics facility to temporarily mitigate the positive effects. During 2026-28e we expect roughly a 10% increase in adj. EBITDA p.a.

ACCUMULATE-rating with a TP of EUR 1.0 (1.15)
With the revisions to our estimates, we adjust our target price to EUR 1.0 (prev. 1.15) and retain our ACCUMULATE-rating. Our sum-of-the-parts model equity value estimate is down to EUR 1.54 (1.67). We reiterate our view on good upside potential, but remain cautious due to expected news in the upcoming Capital Markets Day (12.5.2026)