Oriola - Expecting a busy year ahead
We expect continued good growth in Q4 and fairly flat margin development q/q. 2026 is looking to be a busy year, but if one should be excited about the actions to be taken still remains to be seen.
Expect good growth to continue, to round off solid year
Oriola reports its Q4 results on February 25th. Oriola’s performance so far during the year has been good on top-line basis, with invoicing having increased some 11% during the first three quarters. Adjusted EBITDA is also up slightly despite higher OPEX driven weaker profitability in the Wholesale segment. We expect the growth pace to settle towards high single-digits in Q4 and fairly flat segment margin development q/q. Our Q4 net sales and adj. EBITDA estimates are at EUR 479.9m and EUR 10.3m respectively. The higher proportionate share of vaccine deliveries in Q3 compared with the previous year could prompt some softness in the figures compared with what we have anticipated.
A lot going on but what remains to be seen
Recent months have been busy in terms of news for Oriola with the announcement of the planned distribution center, ~16m impairment related to Kronans Apotek and strategy review. Key topics in the latter largely revolve around the balance sheet and review of non-core assets. Kronans Apotek in this sense stands out given the significant balance sheet impact. Our valuation of the JV is clearly below the balance sheet value, and we have earlier flagged risks relating to equity levels in the case of larger impairments. Oriola has however continued to emphasize the strategic importance of Kronans, and gearing up for accelerating growth inorganically is not off the table. The capital allocation priorities also include payout. We have bumped down our FY2025 dividend estimate to EUR 0.07 per share, in line with the previous year. With share buybacks emphasized as an option, dividends could likely decline at least for FY 2026.
ACCUMULATE-rating with TP of EUR 1.25 (1.30)
We have not made changes to our estimates ahead of Q4. Although not yet clear what actions will be taken, we anticipate that 2026 will be quite a busy year and in the short-term potentially more on the negative side in terms of valuation, while the mid- to long-term outlook remains solid. We adjust our TP to EUR 1.25 (1.30) and retain our accumulate-rating.