Nokian Panimo - Resilience expected amid softer market
We expect Nokian Panimo's debut earnings as a listed company to demonstrate resilience despite challenging weather conditions, supported by capacity investments and continued market share gains.
Strong foundation despite mild summer
Nokian Panimo is set to report its first public earnings on Thursday, August 21st. The company enters this milestone with a proven track record of profitable growth amid rising demand. In recent years, summer demand has regularly exceeded production capacity, creating out-of-stock situations during peak season. According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, this year's H1 period saw an unusually mild summer with only two "heat days" in May–June 2025 versus 30 in 2024. Industry statistics show H1 beer sales declined, with the cooler conditions likely amplifying the expected market trend. Despite Nokian Panimo's exposure to beer sales, which account for 75% of its sales volume, we expect the company to have demonstrated operational resilience and continued gaining market share.
Slight sales revisions despite resilience
Given the company's historical pattern of selling to capacity limits during peak periods, we expect the softer beer market to have had a more limited impact on Nokian Panimo's beer volumes compared to peers. Meanwhile, the other beverages category should show solid development, driven by stronger demand trends, rising market share, as well as spring product launches targeted to this category. We believe net sales have improved in both segments and expect 7.5% y/y growth, though we have marginally revised our H1 estimate to EUR 6.3m (prev. 6.5m) reflecting the mild summer weather and market conditions. H1 profitability is expected to be slightly softer due to recent investments and listing-related expenses, but should improve in H2, with the FY EBITDA margin estimated near the 18% target.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of 2.7
On 2025E, Nokian Panimo trades broadly in line with peers at 9x EV/EBITDA and 1.3x EV/sales. Looking into 2026E, the company moves to a discount on both multiples as profitability is expected to improve. Coupled with its profitable growth record and market share gains, we see modest upside potential ahead. We keep our TP of EUR 2.7 and ACCUMULATE rating.