Nokian Panimo - Consumer demand mix pressures margins
Nokian Panimo cut its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance due to weaker-than-expected profitability after the summer season. Before the profit warning, our estimates were already at the lower end of the earlier range. We cut 2025E EBITDA by ~8% and reiterate ACCUMULATE but lower TP to EUR 2.5.
Guidance cut driven by weaker post-summer margins
Nokian Panimo issued a profit warning on Friday evening, revising its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance to 16–18% (prev. 18–21%). Revenue guidance remains unchanged, with growth expected from the 2024 level (EUR 11.9m). The guidance cut reflects weaker-than-expected post-summer profitability, driven by consumer demand skewed toward lower-priced products and cost levels rising slightly above the company’s expectations. Achieving the lower end of the revised range requires an H2 EBITDA margin of above 17%, which we still view as a solid level in the current market environment. During H1, the company’s performance was impacted by mild weather early in the season, which constrained sales and consequently profitability, leaving too much catch-up for the second half of the year.
2025E EBITDA cut by ~8%
We have lowered our 2025 EBITDA estimate to EUR 2.2m (prev. EUR 2.4m), implying a 16.7% margin (prev. 18.3%). Our new estimate sits roughly at the midpoint of the updated guidance range. For H2, we expect EUR 6.7m in revenue and EUR 1.3m (18.7%) in EBITDA. We have also made minor adjustments to 2026–2027 forecasts, while revenue estimates remain unchanged. While these forecast revisions dampen the short-term earnings outlook, the company’s longer-term profitability potential remains intact. Nokian Panimo operates in a relatively defensive market and has demonstrated its ability to grow profitably even in weaker consumer conditions.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 2.5 (prev. 2.7)
Following our estimate revisions, we reiterate our ACCUMULATE rating but adjust our target price to EUR 2.5 (prev. 2.7). Nokian Panimo trades at 9x EV/EBITDA on our 2025 estimates, which is fairly neutral relative to peers. Valuation is expected to ease in 2026E (EV/EBITDA ~7.5x), as we expect margins to return toward long-term target levels. Planned production investments and capacity expansion should enhance operational efficiency and provide visibility into gradually improving margins in 2026–2027.