Nokian Panimo - Acceleration from H1 expected
Nokian Panimo reports H2’25 figures on Friday. Despite the November profitability guidance cut, we expect progress from H1 across key metrics driven by stronger demand indicators.
Should improve from H1
Following a resilient H1 impacted by mild weather, we expect Nokian Panimo's performance to have improved in the second half. In H1, volumes and net sales grew 5.5% y/y, driven primarily by 22% growth in the smaller other beverages category, which benefited from the new long drink family launch and soft drinks market share gains. Volumes in the larger beer category were essentially flat but outperformed the declining market, while EBITDA margin came in at 14.7%, pressured by lower volumes and elevated costs. Looking to H2, PTY data suggests market conditions improved somewhat following the softer first half. In addition, the company highlighted ~19% y/y volume growth in the seasonally important and high-volume July in its H1 report, driven by the heatwave and improved inventory availability. Based on these indicators and historical performance, we expect beer sales volumes to have returned to growth in H2, while momentum in other beverages should also have continued. On this basis, H2 EBITDA margin should improve from H1 on higher volumes and relatively lower costs.
Growth to continue, interest lies in capacity development
We made minor downward revisions following the November guidance cut but make no further changes to 2025E at this time, estimating net sales of EUR 12.9m (+9% y/y) and EBITDA margin of 16.8%. While July's 19% volume growth was encouraging, we view it as weather-driven and model H2 total volume growth at ~10%. For 2026E, we see potential for ~10% net sales growth and EBITDA margin above 18%. Beyond guidance, key interests include capacity expansion plans within the investment roadmap, particularly regarding fermentation capacity and timing of further scale-up, spring product launch mix, and ability to pass through alcohol tax increases and the new sugar-tiered soft drink tax to prices. We expect no 2025 dividend, as funds are used for growth investments and IPO costs leave FY net income negative.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 2.5
Nokian Panimo trades at EV/EBITDA 10-8x on our estimates for 2025-26E. The valuation is slightly elevated for 2025E, but below peer group median for 2026E. Given the profitable growth track record and continued market share gains, we see modest upside but maintain a cautious near-term stance and retain our TP of EUR 2.5 and ACCUMULATE rating.