Etteplan - Still waiting for the market to turn
Etteplan is set to report its Q4 figures on February 12. We expect that the market and demand situation remained challenging in Q4, with no clear signs of recovery in 2026.
Limited organic growth expected in Q4
Etteplan cut its FY2025 guidance for the second time last October ahead of the Q3 report, highlighting continued and even weakening demand. Following Q3 figures, the revised guidance implies net sales of some EUR 86–102m and EBIT of EUR 4–7m for Q4. The wide net sales range reflects the limited visibility, and we see no meaningful improvement in demand since the revision. We estimate Q4 net sales of EUR 94m, slightly above last year mainly driven by acquisition-led growth in Engineering Solutions. Software and Embedded Solutions is expected to post another double-digit decline due to subdued product development demand, while we estimate slight organic growth for Technical Communication and Data Solutions, where AI-driven service solutions are expected to support the service area’s profitability. Overall, we estimate Q4 group EBIT of EUR 5.5m (5.8% margin), with ongoing adaptation measures supporting a modest y/y improvement despite the challenging market.
Cautious guidance expected amid weak visibility
Given the guidance revisions over the past year and ongoing uncertainty, we expect Etteplan to issue a broad and cautious guidance for 2026. Market conditions will likely remain subdued through at least H1, with investment sentiment weighed down by the current economic climate. However, overall sentiment in the technology industry points to some relief in new orders and order books, and Q4’25 was surprisingly solid for the sector as a whole according to Technology Industries of Finland, though there are still no signs of a broad economic turnaround. For now, we maintain a cautious stance and forecast ~3% net sales growth in 2026 and an EBIT of EUR 23.1m. Should demand recover faster, there is upside potential to our estimates, as improved utilization would boost both top-line growth and margins. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain elevated, and we do not assume a material recovery in our forecasts at this stage.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 10.0 (prev. EUR 10.5)
Etteplan is currently valued at an adj. EV/EBITA of 12–10x based on our 2025–26E estimates, which we view as rather neutral in both absolute and relative terms. While long-term potential remains, limited visibility on a market turnaround keeps us cautious. We reiterate our ACCUMULATE rating but lower our TP to EUR 10.0 (prev. EUR 10.5).