Endomines - Set for another record year
2025 was a record year for Endomines, with profitability improving clearly, although H2 fell slightly short of our expectations. Gold prices support new records in 2026.
Operatively slightly weaker than expected H2
Endomines reported H2 results that operatively were slightly below our expectations. Nonetheless, the company finished of its best year in history. Revenue was slightly above our expectations (EUR 24.9m/22.7m act./Evli), while Group EBITDA of EUR 8.7m fell short of our EUR 10.2m estimate, driven by the cash cost being higher than we had expected due to the transition of mining operations and gold prices enabling mining of lower grade ore. Profitability was supported by a 7% increase in production but mostly by the significant increase in gold prices. Earnings were subdued by one-offs due to costs relating to the divestment of assets, but offset largely by an EUR 4.1m increase in deferred tax assets, bringing EPS up to EUR 0.4 (H2/24: EUR 0.1). The earnings improvement was also reflected in operative cash flow, which over doubled from 2025 to EUR 13.1m.
Current gold price levels would significantly boost earnings
Endomines expects production to increase by 10-20% in 2026, implying production of roughly 18,300-20,000 ounces. We have kept our production estimate intact at ~19,100 ounces. Our profitability estimates for the coming years are down slightly through a slight increase in cash cost expectations through lower overall head grades as well as the increase in mining mineral taxes, which according to Endomines could rise up to EUR 2m in 2026 (2025: 0.3m). The gold price development met some resistance after briefly passing 5,000 USD/oz levels, but current levels at above 4,800 are still well above previous year levels, which support a further, very significant leap in earnings figures in 2026.
ACCUMULATE (BUY) with a TP of EUR 31.5 (32.5)
With the adjustments to our estimates and smaller tweaks to parameters affecting our SOTP-model, we adjust our TP to EUR 31.5 (32.5) and lower our rating to ACCUMULATE (BUY). We remain cautious on gold prices in our base case assumptions, while spot prices offer further, notable upside potential.