Endomines — Gold’s momentum boosting profitability
Gold prices have continued to develop favourably since our previous update in September, up some 20% since late-August. Our 2026e EBIT estimate is up nearly 30%, driven by the price increases. We adjust our TP to EUR 31.5 (prev. 27.0) and upgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (REDUCE).
Strong support from favourable gold price development
The gold price has seen significant favourable development in recent months, with an approx. 20% increase since late-August, and broke 4,000 USD/oz earlier this month. Prices recently neared 4,200 USD/oz following renewed trade tensions and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts. Price development this year has been driven by structural demand shifts, with central bank purchases this year over double the historical averages as well as significant increases in ETF inflows. Future development expectations vary, with among other things continued reserve diversification and Fed rate expectations seen to support price development, whereas reduced global uncertainty through lasting peace deals in Ukraine and the Middle East could reverse price trends.
2026e EBIT estimate up nearly 30%
The gold price development provides solid support for Endomines’ profitability. We have lowered our 2025e production estimates to account for the weaker than expected production in Q3 due to the transition phase after the acquisition of the underground mining operations of Power Mining Oy in Pampalo, along with slightly lowered Q4/25 and 2026e expectations. Our 2025e production estimate is now towards the lower half of the guidance, at 17,849 oz (prev. 19,296 oz). In the bigger picture these adjustments are trivial, as our 2026e EBIT estimate is up nearly 30% due to the gold price development. We expect gold production to increase to around 21k oz in 2026e. Our LT gold price estimate is up to 3,800 USD/oz (prev. 3,300).
ACCUMULATE (REDUCE) with a TP of EUR 31.5 (27.0)
Following the adjustments to our estimates and market parameters, we raise our TP to EUR 31.5 (27.0) and upgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (REDUCE). Although valuation through our SOTP model relies on potential relating to the Karelian gold line, we consider 2026-27e valuation multiples quite attractive and see further upside should gold prices remain at least at current levels.