Endomines - Gold price trumps production

Q4 production came in below our estimate

Endomines released production figures for the fourth quarter. Production in the fourth quarter amounted to 3,788 oz, a 22.6% y/y increase. Gold production at the Pampalo mine increased by 16.3% in 2025, reaching 16,630 oz. The production was weaker than we had anticipated, with our estimate at 17,849 oz. Despite higher production volumes early in the year and the acquisition of the underground mining contractor’s business in September, the by Endomines forecasted stronger growth in H2 2025 did not fully materialize. According to Endomines the transition of operations enabled key organizational and operational improvements, which contributed to a robust year-end, particularly in December.

Production estimates lowered, gold price supports P&L

We have lowered our production estimates for 2026 to slightly below 20k oz, but still expect growth of some 15%. Although softness in production figures during H2, and Q3 in particular, was to be expected, of key interest in the upcoming earnings report will be whether or not the downward trend in production is fully due to the aforementioned transition. In terms of our P&L estimates, top- and bottom-line figures are up slightly due to the higher gold price, hovering at around 4,400 USD/oz compared with the around 4,000 USD/oz levels in October. 

BUY (ACCUMULATE) with a TP or EUR 32.5 (31.5)

Our SOTP base case fair value is up slightly following adjustments to gold price assumptions. Revisions to our valuation assumptions relating to the US assets, now estimated based on remaining book value and present value of expected cash flows relating to the divestment of the three deposits in Idaho, have a very minor negative impact. We adjust our target price to EUR 32.5 (31.5) and upgrade our rating to BUY (ACCUMULATE).