Duell - Headwinds in France delay the turnaround
Duell’s Q2 held up slightly better than feared following the profit warning, but the downgrade shifts the burden clearly to H2. The ongoing French portfolio transition is set to weigh more heavily in the second half, delaying the earnings recovery.
Quarter slightly better than feared after profit warning
Duell’s winter-season dominated Q2 net sales declined 2% y/y to EUR 28.8m, amid challenging market conditions. In the Nordics, sales declined 3% y/y, while Central Europe was broadly flat and exceeded our expectations, as the company sold through remaining inventory from discontinued brands in France, which offset underlying weakness from the ongoing portfolio transition. Adj. EBITA declined to EUR 0.4m (Q2’25: EUR 1.1m), reflecting the challenges in France and an unfavorable product mix, as subdued winter category sales weighed on margins. LTM leverage ratio increased to 5.4x, reflecting the subdued profitability, despite a y/y decline in net debt to EUR 25.5m. Covenants were amended during the quarter and conditions were met.
Guidance cut points to a soft H2
Following the profit warning, Duell expects FY26 organic net sales at around EUR 115m and adj. EBITA at around EUR 2m, implying a clearly weaker H2. We have lowered our net sales estimates, particularly for Central Europe, reflecting continued challenges in France. Tail sales that supported H1 are expected to fade in H2 as remaining inventory has been cleared, while the renewed brand portfolio is unlikely to contribute meaningfully in FY26. In the Nordics, a warm start to the summer season and higher new motorcycle registrations in Jan–Mar y/y provide early support. However, weak consumer confidence and the lowered guidance keep our outlook cautious, and we expect a slight sales decline in the region in H2. After revisions, we now forecast Duell’s FY26 net sales to be EUR 116m. We have also lowered our adj. EBITA estimate to EUR 2.2m, primarily reflecting the weaker top line and continued challenges in France. Reported figures are further impacted by EUR 2–3m of NRIs related to supply chain restructuring and inventory optimization.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 1.3 (prev. EUR 2.3)
Near-term multiples are elevated following our estimate revisions, but looking further ahead valuation offers upside potential. On our FY27E estimates, Duell is valued at ~5x adj. EV/EBITDA, which we consider modest should the turnaround start to materialize. However, uncertainty around the outlook and the constrained balance sheet keep risks elevated. We keep our ACCUMULATE rating but lower our TP to EUR 1.3 (prev. EUR 2.3).