Duell - Expecting a challenging start to FY26

Challenging FY25 backdrop to continue

FY25 was challenging for Duell, with net sales broadly flat y/y and adj. EBITA down to EUR 3.9m. Performance in the Nordics was held back by weak consumer sentiment and adverse weather conditions, with sales down ~1%. In Central Europe, Duell's primary growth region, FY25 sales increased by ~9% until the end of Q3, although momentum faded in Q4 due to issues in France related to changes in the brand portfolio. With cash tied up in inventory due to the weak end to the winter season and the seasonally important Q3, the balance sheet position was left strained at year-end. Ahead of the Q1 report, market conditions have remained largely unchanged, and management continues to expect the environment to stay suppressed through the year. H1 is likely to remain difficult, while a recovery in H2 depends on successful sales execution and the resulting inventory normalization, as well as the diminishing impact of the French brand transition.

Difficult H1 expected, should improve in H2

Duell’s FY26 guidance implies organic net sales and adj. EBITA to stay at the same level as in FY25. Ahead of the Q1 note, we forecast FY26 net sales of EUR 127.5m (+0.7% y/y) and adj. EBITA of EUR 5.0m (FY25: EUR 4.9m). The seasonally quiet Q1 is expected to be weak, as elevated inventories from the previous season have likely weighed on dealer pre-orders in the Nordics, while ongoing challenges in France continue to pressure performance in Central Europe. In Q1, we estimate net sales to have declined in both geographic areas y/y and adj. EBITA to be EUR 0.3m (Q1’25: EUR 0.7m). Additionally, the warehouse transfer from Tampere to Mustasaari and Tranås (reducing nine positions) is expected to generate non-recurring costs of EUR ~0.35m in H1. The company expects this to generate savings of EUR ~0.4m, supporting the H2 performance improvement.

ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 3.4 (prev. EUR 3.8)

Based on our 2026–27 estimates, Duell trades at undemanding multiples of 6–4x adj. EV/EBITDA and 6–4x adj. P/E. Should Duell demonstrate H1 resilience, succeed in driving sales in H2, and manage inventory effectively, we see meaningful upside potential from current levels. That said, uncertainty around leverage, consumer confidence, and the extent and duration of the issues in France remain high. Given these risks, we keep our ACCUMULATE rating but lower our TP to EUR 3.4.