CapMan - Looking to gain momentum
CapMan’s operative performance in Q2 on comparable basis was decent, although the operating profit fell below estimates due to fair value changes. With the addition of the Real Asset Debt investment area, the AUM growth in the near term is considerable and the 10bn target (2027) is beginning to look more realistic.
Operatively decent but FV change driven EBIT miss
CapMan reported and operating profit of EUR 2.5m in Q2, below our and consensus expectations (EUR 4.7m/6.0m Evli/cons.). The main deviation compared with our estimates arose from fair value changes (EUR 1.9m/4.0m Act./Evli). Slightly higher than expected OPEX was largely due to one-offs. Fee income and profit development was unfavourable owing to fund closings in the comparison period, otherwise showing steady positive progress in line with AUM growth. AUM grew 2% q/q to EUR 6.5bn. The earnings report came with little new news and the quarter, aside from FV fluctuations, was decent in our view.
Significant near-term AUM growth potential
Our bottom-line estimate revisions are fairly limited. We have included CAERUS in our estimates, but the positive short-term impact is offset by slight downward adjustments to investment returns and deferred carry expectations. We continue to expect a comp. operating profit level of ~EUR 40m going into 2026. The AUM growth pipeline remains attractive. Solely considering the NRE IV fund and on-going fundraising in Real Asset Debt (CAERUS) as well as dry powder, we are looking at gross AUM growth potential in excess of EUR 1bn in the coming twelve months. Fee profit growth in 2025 is dependent on a successful first closing during H2, and the aforementioned AUM potential should accelerate the fee profit growth pace in 2026. Should fundraising succeed as planned, the 2027 target of EUR 10bn in AUM is not looking so distant anymore.
BUY-rating with a TP of EUR 2.1
Current valuation levels in our view do not fully reflect CapMan’s growth potential, although market uncertainties still remain. With our limited estimate revisions, we retain our target price of EUR 2.1 and BUY-rating.