Nordic IT service provider and software house
Solteq lowered its guidance for 2022 due to challenges relating to the Utilities business. With the downgrade, the company’s journey to realize its potential is prolonged. We lower our TP to EUR 3.4 (5.0), rating remains BUY.
Guidance for 2022 lowered
Solteq issued a profit warning, lowering its guidance for 2022 for both revenue and operating profit. According to the new guidance revenue in 2022 is expected to grow and operating profit to weaken, while the company previously expected revenue to grow clearly and operating profit to improve. The guidance downgrade is driven in particular by the Utilities business, where Solteq sees that increased investments and project delivery costs will weaken the profitability and reduce customer invoicing.
Scalability potential not materializing as expected
We have lowered our estimates for the on-going year, with a quite notable decrease in operating profit. We now expect 2022 revenue of EUR 75.0m (prev. EUR 77.0m), for an implied growth of 8.7%. Taking into account the more recent acquisitions, the estimated organic growth is heading towards lower single-digit figures. We have lowered our operating profit estimates by some 15% to EUR 6.6m. All the made revisions relate to our estimates for Solteq Software. The reasons for the guidance downgrade appear to point to near-term challenges, but we expect a spill-over effect on 2023 thus slowing down the expected scaling of Solteq Software and with the added uncertainty we have also lowered our 2023 operating profit estimate by some 15%. The overall narrative is still seemingly unchanged, only the expected scaling of Solteq Software appears delayed.
BUY with a target price of EUR 3.4 (5.0)
Following our estimates revisions we lower our target price to EUR 3.4 (5.0) and retain our BUY-rating. We currently expect profitability in 2023 to improve to 2021 levels, with notable improvement potential still present through Solteq Software. With the bumps in the road we now value Solteq close to the IT services peers, having previously justified a larger premium.
Solteq issued a profit warning, lowering both its guidance for revenue and operating profit by a notch. Revenue in 2022 is now expected to grow (prev. grow clearly) and operating profit to weaken (prev. improve).
Solteq’s Q1 figures were well in line with expectations. Solteq in our view is continuing to steadily realize its scalability potential and we expect double-digit growth in 2022. We retain our BUY-rating and TP of EUR 5.0.
Q1 well in line with expectations
Solteq reported Q1 result well in line with our expectations. Net sales were EUR 19.2m (Evli EUR 18.9m), with growth of 10.7%. Roughly a third of the growth was organic. The operating profit and adj. operating profit in Q1 amounted to EUR 1.4m and 1.6m respectively (Evli EUR 1.5m/1.5m). Solteq Software’s and Solteq Digital’s y/y growth and adj. EBIT figures were 5.6%/19.7% and EUR 1.5m/0.1m respectively, with both segments faring quite as expected. Solteq reiterated its guidance, expecting group revenue to grow clearly and the operating profit to improve.
Double-digit growth seen in 2022
We have made essentially no changes to our top-line and bottom-line figures. We expect revenue to grow 11.6% y/y in 2022e. Our growth estimates assume continued modest growth in Solteq Digital and over 20% growth in Solteq Software, in line with the long-term segment targets of over 5% and 20% growth. Solteq Software’s growth is clearly aided by the acquisition of Enerity Solutions, but we see organic growth picking up through good demand and ramp-up of recurring revenue. We expect EBIT to improve to EUR 7.7m (2021: 7.1m) through slight gains in both segments. We expect Solteq Digital’s margins to remain steady in the coming years. For Solteq Software we expect the scalability potential to start to show in the coming years.
BUY with a target price of EUR 5.0
Solteq’s valuation is currently slightly below the IT-services peer median, which in our view is unjustified given the healthy growth and profitability trend and expectations and increasing share of recurring revenue. We value Solteq at ~20x 2022e P/E. Our target price remains EUR 5.0 and rating BUY.
Solteq’s Q1 was in line with our expectations, with revenue at EUR 19.2m (Evli EUR 18.9m) and adj. EBIT at EUR 1.6m (Evli EUR 1.5m). Guidance for 2022 reiterated: group revenue is expected to grow clearly and the operating profit to improve.
Solteq's growth remained good in Q4, but investments impacted on profitability. With growth investments on the rise, we lower our profitability estimates for 2022 and our TP to EUR 5.0 (6.2), with our BUY-rating intact.
Growth on track but investments burdened profitability
Solteq reported weaker Q4 results on the profitability side while growth still remained at a good pace. Revenue grew 11.4% to EUR 18.3m (EUR 18.0m Evli) and the operating profit amounted to EUR 1.3m (EUR 2.0m Evli). Compared with our estimates, profitability was weaker in Solteq Software, where adj. EBIT fell to EUR 0.0m (EUR 0.8m Evli). Profitability was impacted by growth investments as well as increases in subcontracting and general costs. Investments were made into software development and into international growth. Solteq’s BoD proposes a dividend of EUR 0.10 per share (EUR 0.11 Evli).
Estimates lowered as investments pick up
Solteq expects its revenue in 2022 to grow clearly and operating profit to improve compared with 2021. We have not made any significant changes to our revenue estimates but have lowered our profitability estimates by quite a bit, now expecting 2022 operating profit of EUR 7.8m (prev. 10.5m). Although it is unfortunate that profitability scaling in Solteq Software is not going as fast as we (in retrospect probably overoptimistically) had expected, prioritizing growth is still more beneficial with demand drivers in place and apart from cost growth from subcontracting the operational profitability still appears to be on track. We expect to see the growth investments weighing more heavily on H1 and with pick-up in growth and recurring revenue we expect to see figures improve towards the end of the year, creating good potential for the following years.
BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 5.0 (6.2)
With our estimates revisions we adjust our target price to EUR 5.0 (6.2), valuing Solteq at approx. 21x 2022e P/E. Solteq has likely been somewhat cautious in its profitability guidance, and we still see potential for some improvement during the year as visibility improves. We retain our BUY-rating.
Solteq’s Q4 was below our lowered pre-Q4 expectations, with revenue at EUR 18.3m (Evli EUR 18.0m) and adj. EBIT at EUR 1.4m (Evli EUR 2.0m). Guidance for 2022: group revenue is expected to grow clearly and the operating profit to improve. Dividend proposal EUR 0.10 per share (Evli EUR 0.11).
Solteq reports Q4 results on February 17th. We foresee some continued softness due to the current environment but continue to expect earnings improvement in 2022. We retain our BUY-rating with a TP of EUR 6.2 (6.8).
Some softness expected in Q4
Solteq reports Q4 results on February 17th. Solteq’s Q3 results were softer than anticipated, as deliveries for two large-scale retail customers were postponed as a result of the impact of the global component shortage. Revenue still grew by over 10%, mainly organically, and the adj. operating profit margin was at a fairly decent 8.1%. We had previously expected fourth quarter figures to turn back on track with the start-up of the postponed projects. With the macroeconomic uncertainties still present we anticipate some softness to still be seen in the fourth quarter and have slightly lowered our estimates, still expecting fairly good growth but slightly lower margins y/y.
Potential remains but market uncertainties a disturbance
Solteq in our view remains in a good position to continue revenue and earnings growth in 2022. We anticipate the recurring revenue from the implemented Utilities business projects to start to show. We see that the demand for Solteq’s solutions, in particular within utilities and ecommerce, should under normalized circumstances remain at a healthy level. The market environment has however been somewhat challenging and has not appeared to improve significantly going into 2022. With the current uncertainties we have lowered our 2022e EBIT estimates by some 9% but still see room for double-digit y/y growth in operating profit. We expect revenue of EUR 76.3m and an adj. operating profit margin of 13.8%.
BUY with a target price of EUR 6.2 (6.8)
With our estimates revisions and current uncertainties, we adjust our TP to EUR 6.2 (6.8) and retain our BUY-rating. Our TP values Solteq at ~17x 2022 P/E, which is still fairly low, and upside potential remains solid should the market environment not threaten the earnings growth track.
Solteq’s Q3 was weaker than expected due to two project postponements. Uncertainty has increased but Solteq is still well on its way toward solid growth and profitability.
Two project postponements drove weaker Q3 figures
Solteq’s Q3 results took an unfortunate turn from the solid development trend so far during 2021. Net sales grew slower than expected by 12.2% y/y to EUR 14.9m (Evli EUR 16.4m). The adj. operating profit declined slightly to EUR 1.2m (Evli EUR 2.0m). Solteq Digital grew 4.3% to EUR 9.5m (Evli EUR 10.4m) and the adj. EBIT improved slightly to EUR 0.9m (Evli EUR 1.1m) while Solteq Software grew 29.7% to EUR 5.4m (Evli EUR 6.0m) and the adj. EBIT declined slightly to EUR 0.3m (Evli EUR 1.0m). The Q3 results were mainly impacted by the postponement of two larger customer deliveries in the retail-segment due to the prevailing component shortage situation and to some extent by an increase in subcontracting costs due to a lack of specialists in the IT-sector.
Larger part of Q3 concerns look to be temporary
At least on paper the challenges faced in Q3 appear to be of temporary nature. The postponements should have a clearly smaller impact on Q4. The prevailing demand uncertainty due to the pandemic, the component shortage and lack of industry specialists, however, are a concern, but to our understanding no new postponements are seen right now. The share of subcontracting is relatively low but has been increasing and future growth could come at the cost of margins and vice versa. Potential cost increases may in the future ultimately end up being absorbed by the customer. We have made some minor downward tweaks to our Q4 estimates but no larger changes to our coming year estimates.
BUY with a target price of EUR 6.8 (8.0)
We see good potential for Solteq returning back on its H1 track but with our minor estimates and higher uncertainty we lower our target price to EUR 6.8, with our BUY-rating intact. Our TP values Solteq on a slight premium to IT-services peers on 2021e P/E and on par with peers on 2022e P/E.
Solteq’s Q3 was below our expectations, with revenue at EUR 14.9m (Evli EUR 16.4m) and adj. EBIT at EUR 1.2m (Evli EUR 2.0m). Figures were affected by customer project postponements due to the on-going component shortage. Guidance intact: group revenue in 2021 is expected to grow clearly and the operating profit to improve clearly.
Solteq grew faster than expected in Q2, with Solteq Digital returning to clear growth. The outlook is now looking even better with the pick-up in demand in Solteq Digital and we expect good performance across the board. We raise our TP to EUR 8.0 (7.2), BUY-rating intact.
Rapid growth in Q2, Solteq Digital surprised positively
Solteq reported Q2 figures above our estimates. Revenue growth was clearly faster than expected, with growth of 23% to EUR 18.5m (Evli EUR 17.1m). Solteq Software as expected continued at a very rapid growth pace of 43%, while to our surprise Solteq Digital moved to double-digit growth, aided by good demand in retail, after having posted lower growth figures for the past year. The adj. EBIT was quite in line with our estimates at EUR 2.5m (Evli EUR 2.3m). Our overestimation of Solteq Software’s profitability was compensated by the over 15% EBIT-margin (target >8%) in Solteq Digital supported by the growth in the quarter.
Poised for double digit growth and margins in 2021
We have slightly raised our 2021 estimates for revenue and EBIT to EUR 71.4m (prev. 68.3m) and EUR 9.6m (prev. 9.2m). We expect Solteq Software to continue to grow very rapidly supported by the backlog of Utilities project deliveries. With the large projects sizes the recurring revenue should start to show more strongly in 2022 and we estimate only minor EBITDA-margin improvement in 2021. We expect the good demand in Solteq Digital to continue to show throughout the year and for the growth also to be reflected positively in the segment’s profitability. Positive signs were also seen in the commercialization of the Solteq Robotics solutions through a few pilot projects, with the pandemic having slowed down development in the near past.
BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 8.0 (7.2)
On our minor estimates revisions and overall good progress we raise our target price to EUR 8.0 (7.2). Valuation of ~17x 2022 P/E is not particularly challenging given the growth and profitability. We retain our BUY-rating.
Solteq’s Q2 was slightly above expectations, with revenue at EUR 18.5m (Evli EUR 17.1m) and adj. EBIT at EUR 2.5m (Evli EUR 2.3m). Guidance intact: group revenue in 2021 is expected to grow clearly and the operating profit to improve clearly.
Solteq posted solid Q1 figures, clearly above our estimates. We have made clear upward revisions to our estimates with on better than expected growth and profitability. We adjust our target price to EUR 7.2 (4.5), BUY-rating intact.
Clear earnings beat across the board
Solteq reported solid Q1 figures, clearly beating our estimates. Net sales grew 10.9% to EUR 17.4m (Evli 16.5m) and EBIT improved to EUR 2.2m (Evli EUR 0.9m). A clear highlight for the first quarter was the mainly organic 43.1% growth of Solteq Software, aided by deliveries of the orders received within the Utilities business. The profitability figures of Solteq Digital were surprisingly good, with EBIT doubling compared to the comparison period, to our understanding mainly driven by high utilization rates and streamlining of operations. Solteq upgraded its profitability guidance ahead of Q1, now also expecting the operating profit to grow clearly (prev. grow). This was not too surprising, as we had already in conjunction with Q4 questioned the guidance softness.
Estimates raised quite a bit
We have clearly raised our estimates after the solid first quarter figures. We now expect revenue growth of 13.0% (prev. 8.9%), driven mainly by Solteq Software and customer deliveries in the Utilities business. We expect pick-up in growth of Solteq Digital in the latter half of the year, as easing of the pandemic should increase demand in some of the harder hit sectors. We have also raised our EBIT estimate to EUR 9.2m (prev. 6.7m). We see limited margin upside potential going forward in the less scalable Solteq Digital segment while Solteq Software still has a lot more potential once the recurring revenue from the deliveries now being made start ramping up.
BUY with a target price of EUR 7.2 (4.5)
Solteq has seen a rather hefty share price rally in the past year, being up over 400%. On our revised estimates valuation for the “new” Solteq still does not appear overly challenging. We raise our target price to EUR 7.2 (4.5), valuing Solteq at 24x 2021 P/E and retain our BUY-rating.
Solteq’s Q1 was clearly above expectations, with revenue at EUR 17.4m (Evli EUR 16.5m) and comp. EBIT at EUR 2.2m (Evli EUR 0.9m). Solteq raised its guidance ahead of Q1, expecting that Group revenue in 2021 will grow clearly and that the operating profit will improve clearly.
Solteq reported slightly better than expected Q4 results. The solid performance is set to continue, and we see clear potential for a doubling of EPS in the coming years. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 4.5.
Q4 slightly above expectations
Solteq reported slightly better than expected Q4 results. Revenue amounted to EUR 16.4m (Evli EUR 16.1m) and comp. EBIT to EUR 2.0m (Evli EUR 1.7m). Comp. growth amounted to 9.3%. The BoD proposed a dividend distribution of EUR 0.15 per share (Evli EUR 0.06). To our understanding the high payout ratio is due to no dividend payment in 2019, as such corresponding to an accrued two-year distribution, and we do not expect as high relative payout in the future.
2021 outlook favourable
In 2021 Solteq expects Group revenue to grow clearly and operating profit to improve. The profitability guidance sounds soft but with the on-going pandemic and the related uncertainties the guidance is understandably more cautious this early on in the year. We expect sales growth of 8.9% (prev. 3.7%) and an approx. 14% improvement in comp. EBIT to EUR 6.6m (prev. 5.5m). Growth and profitability is on our estimates largely attributable to Solteq Software, in particular due to project implementations and thereafter following accrual of recurring revenue from the Utilities-sector orders received in 2020. We see clear potential for a doubling of EPS during 2021-2022 compared with 2020, noting that 2020 was affected to some extent by non-recurring financial expenses.
BUY with a target price of EUR 4.5 (1.9)
Solteq’s share price has over doubled since our previous update. Compared with the Nordic software peers, valuation is still not very challenging. With Solteq Software on our revised estimates contributing more clearly to growth and earnings along with overall higher earnings estimates higher multiples are certainly justifiable. We raise our TP to EUR 4.5 (1.9), valuing Solteq at approx. 23x 2021 P/E, BUY-rating intact.
Solteq’s Q4 was slightly above expectations, with revenue at EUR 16.4m (Evli EUR 16.1m) and comp. EBIT at EUR 2.0m (Evli EUR 1.7m). Solteq expects that Group revenue in 2021 will grow clearly and for the operating profit to improve. Dividend proposal EUR 0.15 (Evli EUR 0.06).
Solteq reported clearly better profitability figures than we had expected, with comp. EBIT of EUR 1.4m (Evli 0.7m). We expect the good traction to show also in 2021 but remain slightly cautious on growth figures given the uncertainty. We adjust our TP to EUR 1.90 (1.65), BUY-rating intact.
Our profitability estimates clearly beat
Solteq reported Q3 results that were clearly better than we had expected. Revenue grew 8.5% in comparable terms to EUR 13.3m (Evli 13.0m) and the comparable operating profit to EUR 1.4m (Evli 0.7m). Profitability was better than expected in both segments. The pandemic has had some effect on sales but has not impacted the group’s performance as a whole so far. Solteq Software is clearly gaining traction with the order backlog that has been building up, with particular success in gaining new projects in the utilities-sector and positive development is seen during the rest of the year. Solteq Digital has seen continued good demand in core areas the outlook remains rather stable.
Solteq Software gaining traction
The good development in profitability, brought by previously taken measures and sales growth, is showing a positive effect on the company’s cash generation despite the interest expense burden and product development investments. We do not expect Solteq to go completely unscathed through the pandemic and have clearly lower growth expectations for Solteq Digital in 2021 while the good order intake and the build-up of recurring revenue from long-term contracts will support growth in Solteq Software. We also maintain margin estimates for 2021 at similar levels as in 2020 for now given the uncertainty but see potential for improvement in Solteq Software as the share of own products increases. On group level we estimate growth of 3.7% and an EBIT-margin of 8.8% in 2021.
BUY with a target price of EUR 1.90 (1.65)
Current valuation implies a 2020e EV/EBITDA of 6.4x. Even when comparing solely with the Nordic IT-service peers, valuation still appears attractive. We retain our BUY-rating and raise our target price to EUR 1.90 (1.65) following our revised estimates.
Solteq’s revenue in Q3 grew 8.5% in comparable terms to EUR 13.3m (Evli EUR 13.0m). The comparable operating profit clearly beat our expectations at EUR 1.4m (Evli EUR 0.7m). Guidance reiterated: Solteq Group’s comparable operating profit in 2020 is expected to grow significantly.
Solteq reported clearly better than expected profitability figures following cost reductions, with comp. EBIT at EUR 1.5m (Evli 0.5m). Possible demand thinness remains a concern but with the lower cost base we raise our 2021-22 comp. EBIT estimates by some 30% on average. We adjust our TP to EUR 1.65 (1.15) and our rating to BUY (HOLD).
Profitability clearly beat our estimates
Solteq reported solid Q2 results and profitability was clearly better than we had expected. Revenue grew 7.8% in comparable terms to EUR 15.1m (Evli EUR 14.6m) with both segments contributing nearly equally. The comp. EBIT amounted to EUR 1.5m, clearly above our estimates (Evli EUR 0.5m). The earnings improvement was attributable to previously taken streamlining actions and to some extent reduced travel expenses due to COVID-19. Solteq also reinstated a guidance for 2020, expecting comp. EBIT to grow significantly. The operating cash flow was also strong, at EUR 5.3m in H1 (2019: EUR 4.1m).
Coming year profitability estimates up by quite a bit
We have made larger estimates revisions post Q2, now expecting 2020 revenue of EUR 60.2m (prev 58.9m) and comp. EBIT of EUR 4.8m (prev. 2.4m). We have also raised our 2021-2022 comp. EBIT estimates by some 30% on average. The impact of the coronavirus has so far been limited and sales growth has been good during H1 following good earlier order intake. Our main concerns going forward relate to possible thinness in demand and as such expect lower relative growth figures. Solteq has seen good demand in for instance the energy sector, while areas more affected by the pandemic, such as the travel, restaurant and maritime sectors, saw lower sales in Q2.
BUY (HOLD) with a TP of EUR 1.65 (1.15)
Solteq has been burdened by high leverage and as such low earnings, which to a large extent will be reversed by the improved profitability and improved cash flows will reduce financial risk. With our revised estimates we adjust our TP to EUR 1.65 (1.15), implying a 2020e P/E of 16.5x. We adjust our rating to BUY (HOLD).
Solteq’s revenue in Q2 grew 7.8% in comparable terms to EUR 15.1m (Evli EUR 14.6m). The comparable operating profit clearly beat our expectations at EUR 1.5m (Evli EUR 0.5m) aided by cost savings from actions taken to improve operational efficiency. Guidance reinstated: Solteq Group’s comparable operating profit in 2020 is expected to grow significantly.
Solteq’s Q1 growth was clearly better than expected, 11.6% in comparable terms, with sales at EUR 15.7m (Evli 14.4m). The adj. EBIT was in line with our expectation at EUR 0.9m (Evli 0.8m). We expect reasonable growth in comparable terms in 2020 despite some COVID-19 headwind. We retain our HOLD-rating with a TP of EUR 1.15 (0.95).
Growth in Q1 a positive surprise
Solteq’s revenue growth in Q1 was a clear positive, with revenue growing 5.0% (comparable growth 11.6%) to EUR 15.7m (Evli EUR 14.4m). Growth was driven by the Solteq Digital as a result of good order intake. The adj. EBIT was in line with our estimates at EUR 0.9m (Evli EUR 0.8m), with a lower relative profitability y/y (Q1/19: comp. EBIT 1.2m) due to higher product development depreciation, long-term project revenue recognition and COVID-19 provisions.
Expect growth in comparable revenue despite COVID-19
Based on the positive Q1 revenue figures we have revised our 2020E estimates, expecting revenue to amount to EUR 58.9m and increase some 6.5% from 2019 comparable revenue figures. We assume a dip in sales growth during mid-2020 due to the COVID-10 pandemic but for growth to pick up in 2021. We expect the adj. EBIT in 2020E (Evli EUR 2.4m) to be slightly below 2019 comparable figures largely due to an increase in depreciation related to capitalized product investments. Solteq does not provide a guidance for 2020 due to the pandemic. During 2021-2022 we expect stronger relative growth pick up in Solteq Software with the ramp-up of new projects and a perceived lesser impact of the pandemic along with a notable improvement in relative profitability.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.15 (0.95)
On our revised estimates we retain our HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 1.15 (0.95). Should growth continue at a similar pace as in Q1 valuation upside potential would be clearer, but visibility is currently limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic and earnings multiples on our estimates rather unattractive.
Solteq’s revenue in Q1 was better than expected at EUR 15.7m (Evli EUR 14.4m). Comparable growth was 11.6%. The adj. operating profit was in line with expectations at EUR 0.9m (Evli EUR 0.8m). Product development investments in 2020E EUR 3.0m (2019 3.9m).
Solteq withdrew its guidance for 2020 due to the prevailing uncertainty caused by the Coronavirus pandemic. Customer deliveries within core business areas have so far remained unaffected but we expect to see some weakness within smaller project deliveries. Ramping up sales of newly developed own products will likely also prove to be more challenging. We expect a 6.5% decline in revenue in 2020. We retain our HOLD-rating with a TP of EUR 0.95 (1.40).
Guidance withdrawn due to Coronavirus uncertainty
Solteq withdrew its guidance for 2020 for the time being due to the prevailing uncertainty caused by the Coronavirus pandemic. Customer deliveries with core business areas, with typically larger contracts and longer customer relationships, have so far continued without interruption. We expect the implications of the Coronavirus pandemic going forward to act as a driver for digitalization, partly due to movement restrictions and increasing online demand. In the near term we nonetheless expect revenue to be affected, mainly from smaller project deliveries. We also expect a more challenging ramp up of some of newer software products, some of which had already shown a promising start.
Expect a 6.5% sales decline in 2020
We have lowered our 2020 sales growth estimate to -6.5% (-1.4%) and EBIT to EUR 2.1m (3.5m). We currently expect to see clear margin and sales growth picking up in 2021 but note the high estimates uncertainty due to the Coronavirus outbreak. An additional uncertainty element is caused by the high leverage and interest expenses. Solteq informed of intentions to consider initiating a written procedure to extend its outstanding EUR 24.5m notes by 12 months, that were to mature July 1st, 2020.
HOLD with a TP of EUR 0.95 (1.40)
Solteq’s cash flows were set to improve in the near-term due to lower investments and improved operational profitability. Although Solteq should be able to show relative resilience, the increased uncertainty amid the company’s ambitions to change track towards a software focus is clearly suboptimal and we adjust our TP to EUR 0.95 (1.40), retaining our HOLD-rating.
Solteq’s Q4 results fell shy of our expectations. Revenue amounted to EUR 15.7m (Evli EUR 15.7m) while the adj. EBIT amounted to EUR 1.1m (Evli EUR 1.5m), affected by some project challenges. We expect revenue to decline slightly in 2020 due to the SAP ERP business divestment, while expecting the adj. EBIT to remain at 2019 levels. Following estimates revisions, we adjust our target price to EUR 1.40 (1.50) and retain our HOLD-rating.
Project challenges affected H2 profitability
Solteq’s revenue in Q4 amounted to EUR 15.7m (Evli 15.7m), growing 5.2% y/y. The adj. EBIT amounted to EUR 1.1m (Evli 1.5m) and EBIT to 3.3m (Evli 3.8m) due to the profit from the sale of Solteq’s SAP ERP business. Solteq seeks to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.05 per share, to be decided upon later. Project challenges in Finland during H2 affected revenue and as a result profitability. Comments on the positive development of own software products (i.e. Utilities, POS) and international growth were welcome, although near-term visibility is still limited. Product development expenses amounted to EUR 3.9m in 2019 and are expected to decrease clearly in 2020.
Slight sales decline expected in 2020
We expect revenue to decrease by 1.4% in 2020 following the impact of the sale of the SAP ERP business. The adj. EBIT is expected to remain at 2020 levels and with a pick-up in depreciation of capitalized development costs we expect operational performance to improve in 2020. Our EBITDA and adj. EBIT estimates for 2020-2021E are down by some 6-10% and ~20% respectively post-Q4 following an updated view on profitability improvement progress.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.40 (1.50)
Solteq saw good earnings growth in 2019 but with the capitalization of development costs cash flows remained weak. We expect improvements in 2020 but at a slower pace than previously anticipated. On our lowered estimates we adjust our target price to EUR 1.40 (1.50) and retain our HOLD-rating.
Solteq's Q4 results were slightly below our estimates. Net sales in Q4 amounted to EUR 15.7m (Evli EUR 15.7m), while the adj. EBIT amounted to EUR 1.1m (Evli EUR 1.5m). Solteq expects that its adjusted EBIT will remain at the same level as in 2019.
Solteq will report Q4 results on February 27th. Solteq will report exceptionally good results, aided by gains from the sale of its SAP ERP business to Enfo. We expect the operating profitability to have improved slightly from previous year levels. The divestment should further improve debt ratios sufficiently for Solteq to reinitiate dividend distribution and we expect a dividend proposal of EUR 0.03 per share. We retain our HOLD-rating and target price of EUR 1.50 intact ahead of the Q4 results.
Expect healthy profitability in Q4
We expect Solteq’s Q4 revenue to amount to EUR 15.7m and the adj. EBIT to EUR 1.5m. Solteq sold its SAP ERP business to Enfo Oyj during the quarter and is expected to book an approx. EUR 2.3m profit in Q4, which will clearly boost earnings. The sales of the SAP ERP business in 2019 is expected to be EUR 4m. With the sale of the business Solteq will focus more on the development of its own software products and services. We expect the sale to sufficiently improve debt ratios for Solteq to reinitiate dividend distribution, which have been on hold for two years due to bond covenants and expect a dividend proposal of EUR 0.03 per share.
SAP ERP business sale to affect growth
With the divestment of the SAP ERP business we have lowered our coming year estimates to account for the decrease in sales. With Solteq on a transformation journey towards becoming more focused on its own software products and related services we have not anticipated major growth in the near-term and with the divestment now expect a minor sales decline in 2020. We continue to expect for Solteq to remain on a margin improvement trajectory. 2020 guidance should in our view likely reflect growth in adj. operating profit compared to 2019.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.5
Apart from adjustments made based on the divestment of the ERP SAP business, our estimates remain unchanged. We retain our HOLD-rating and TP of EUR 1.5.
Solteq’s Q3 results fell short of our expectations due to the postponement of certain customer projects. Net sales were EUR 13.0m (Evli 13.5m) and EBIT EUR 0.3m (Evli 0.7m), with Q3 providing no other surprises. Solteq announced plans to implement a new structure during 2020, with two business segments, and their long-term financial targets. We retain our HOLD-rating with a TP of EUR 1.50.
Estimates miss from project postponements
Solteq’s Q3 results fell short of our as well as company expectations. Revenue in Q3 grew 1.2% to EUR 13.0m (Evli 13.5m) and EBIT amounted to EUR 0.3m (Evli 0.7m). The third quarter was impacted by the postponement of certain customer projects to the fourth quarter, with the value of a single postponed order at more than EUR 0.3m. Aside from the impact of the postponed projects the Q3 results provided no surprises. Solteq noted a continued positive development of its order backlog.
Plans to change segment structure during 2020
Solteq announced intentions to change its segment structure during 2020 into two business segments: Solteq Software and Solteq Digital. Solteq Software will focus on the company’s own products and Solteq Digital on IT expert services. The long-term financial targets for Software/Digital are: minimum average annual revenue growth 20%/5% and minimum EBIT-margin 25%/8%. For some perspective, this could imply Group EBIT-margins well over 10% by 2022.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.50
We have lowered our 2019 net sales and EBIT estimates to EUR 58.3m (prev. 58.9m) and EUR 3.9m (prev. 4.4m), with only minor adjustments to our coming year estimates. Solteq as an investment case relies on the transition towards own software and related services and some positive signs were seen from order inflow during Q3, although not large enough to warrant changes to our views. With our estimates largely intact we retain our HOLD-rating and target price of EUR 1.50.
Solteq's Q3 results were slightly below our estimates. Net sales in Q3 amounted to EUR 13.0m (Evli EUR 13.5m), while EBIT amounted to EUR 0.3m (Evli EUR 0.7m). The operating profit was affected by the postponement of certain customer projects. Solteq reiterated its guidance, expecting the operating profit to grow clearly compared to the financial year 2018.
Solteq’s Q2 results were slightly better than our expectations, with net sales at EUR 14.7m (Evli 14.4m) and EBIT at EUR 0.6m (Evli 0.5m). The report mostly implied business as usual, with encouraging comments on order intake development. We have made minor estimates revisions, now expecting a 2019 EBIT-margin of 7.4% (prev. 6.8%). We raise our target price to EUR 1.5 (1.4) and retain our HOLD-rating.
Q2 slightly better than expected
Solteq posted Q2 results slightly better than our expectations. Net sales amounted to EUR 14.7m vs. our estimate of EUR 14.4m. Growth picked up slightly in Q2, at 3.0% y/y, with the revenue of the international subsidiaries having grown significantly. The order intake has according to the company continued to develop positively and was larger than in the comparison period. Q2 EBIT amounted to EUR 0.6 vs. our estimate of EUR 0.5m. Product development investments grew to EUR 1.1m (0.6m), with the co’s full year estimate still at EUR 3.5m.
Slight upwards revisions of our estimates
We have made only minor adjustments to our estimates post-Q2. We expect sales in 2019 to grow 3.5% to EUR 58.9m, supported by a favourable order intake development and expect continued solid growth internationally. We expect the operating profit margin in 2019 to improve to 7.4% (prev. est. 6.8%) from 4.3% in 2018, driven by the actions taken to improve operational efficiency during 2018. Solteq has guided for its operating profit in 2019 to grow clearly compared to 2018.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.5 (1.4)
On 2019 peer multiples valuation still appears reasonably fair. Although we are not yet prepared to fully emphasize 2020 multiples, with the good progress so far during the year and our slightly raised estimates we raise our target price to EUR 1.5 (1.4) and retain our HOLD-rating.
Solteq's Q2 results were slightly above our estimates. Net sales in Q2 amounted to EUR 14.7m (Evli EUR 14.4m), while EBIT amounted to EUR 0.6m (Evli EUR 0.5m). Solteq reiterated its guidance, expecting the operating profit to grow clearly compared to the financial year 2018.
Solteq has during the past years sought to shift its focus towards own cloud-based software products and services from a more IT-services oriented past. The strategic approach coupled with an increased focus on expansion internationally and new product development investments offer growth opportunities and margin improvement potential but the early stages of Solteq’s transition warrants caution. We initiate coverage of Solteq with a HOLD-rating and a target price of EUR 1.40.
Shifting focus towards own products and related services
Solteq is striving to transition from its more IT-services oriented past towards a company focused on own software products and related services, with strengths within commerce related solutions. Growth is sought from expansion internationally and product development investments such as autonomous service robotics solutions, while actions taken to enhance operational efficiency have and continue to aid margins.
Expect margin improvement and moderate growth
We expect a sales CAGR of near 3.5% between 2018-2021E, not including likely acquisitions, which have been elemental in achieving an average growth rate of over 10% p.a. since 2010. Operating profit margin development has been aided by actions to enhance operational efficiency and we expect further improvement to 6.8% in 2019E (2018: 4.3%).
Initiating coverage with HOLD and TP of EUR 1.40
We initiate coverage of Solteq with a HOLD-rating and a target price of EUR 1.40. Our valuation relies mainly on public Nordic IT-services oriented peer multiples. Based on our estimates and current valuation the 2019E and 2020E EV/EBIT and P/E multiples do not imply any notable upside, with the multiples generally in line with peers. Main drivers for valuation upside would in our view be faster revenue growth and margin improvement through a more rapid shift in the product mix and growth internationally. Investments into autonomous service robotics solutions are also a yet unproven but potentially very lucrative bet.
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Solteq Group’s revenue in 2022 is expected to grow and operating profit to weaken
Revenue growth over 20% p.a., operating profit margin of 8%, and net debt/EBITDA ratio below 3.5
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