Raute - Longer perspective is warranted

Raute reports Q2 results on Thu, Jul 23. Order book stands at a decent level but Q2 must have been slow with respect to new orders. Raute issued two releases in Q2 which speak of the company’s strategy proceeding according to plan; however, these news items will not immediately impact our estimates. In our view valuation is turning attractive on our unchanged estimates. Our TP is EUR 21, rating BUY (HOLD).

Order intake was likely low, but strategy appears on track

Raute didn’t disclose any large orders in Q2, which in our view is unsurprising. However, the company did book an order for the delivery of modern veneer drying and automated lay-up lines to South China. Although the order is moderate in size, amounting to perhaps a few million euros, it may prove to hold significant reference value for Raute as the machinery represents the inaugural Chinese purchase of such advanced plywood production technology. The order will be delivered by the end of this year. In our view the order is an initial encouraging sign that the Chinese plywood market, by far the biggest, is gradually maturing towards higher quality standards. Raute has so far been unable to make meaningful inroads into the market and it remains to be seen in what time frame significant results might materialize. Raute also recently announced the acquisition of a Finnish software company specializing in demanding industrial solutions, including machine vision. From a financial perspective the deal has no impact on our current estimates but is consistent with Raute’s strategy, according to which the company continues to invest in further developing its technological edge.

We see soft Q2 order intake, expect improvement in H2

We expect Raute to have booked EUR 19m in Q2 new orders i.e. about half the average quarterly level last year. As with so many other industries, the focus will be on comments regarding the changes and improvement in activity following the most acute weeks of the pandemic lockdown.

We view valuation low especially relative to peer multiples

This year will not be great in terms of profitability. On our estimates for next year Raute currently trades ca. 5.5x EV/EBITDA and 8.5x EV/EBIT; despite uncertainty regarding the sharpness of next year’s profitability improvement we view these multiples attractive. Our TP remains EUR 21, rating now BUY (HOLD).

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