Nokian Panimo - Solid debut sets base for H2 ramp up

A resilient performance in a challenging market 

Nokian Panimo's H1 net sales of EUR 6.3m (Evli est. EUR 6.2m) and sales volume of 4.4m liters both increased 5.5% y/y. The mild weather conditions had a negative effect on sales development as expected, but despite this the company succeeded in taking market share in all beverage categories. In the larger beer category, sales volume declined a modest 0.6%, still outperforming the Finnish beer market's -3.6% decline (PTY), while the other beverages category, centered around soft drinks, ciders and long drinks, was up 22%, driven by market share gains in soft drinks and spring product launches focused on this category. The same weather headwinds that pressured sales also impacted profitability, compounded by temporary costs related to the logistics center construction, storage and equipment maintenance. EBITDA declined to EUR 0.9m (H1'24: EUR 1.3m), meeting our estimate, while EBIT was EUR 0.5m (H1'24: EUR 0.9m). Net income was EUR -0.9m (EUR 0.4m adjusted for IPO costs vs. H1'24: EUR 0.6m).

Acceleration expected in the second half

The company maintained its FY guidance with net sales expected to increase from 2024 (EUR 11.9m) and EBITDA margin of 18-21% (2024: 22%). We expect acceleration in H2, with the new logistics center already proving its value as July's heat conditions reportedly drove close to 20% growth in both volume and net sales, which should have material impact given July's peak season importance. The 18% EBITDA margin target appears attainable with improved H2 cost structure and scalability from higher sales volumes expected. Following these developments, we have increased our H2 sales estimate by 3% and expect FY net sales of EUR 12.9m and slightly raised our FY EBITDA estimate to EUR 2.4m, translating to an 18.3% margin.

ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 2.7

After our minor estimate revisions, Nokian Panimo trades slightly below peers at 8.9x EV/EBITDA and 1.7x EV/sales on our 2025E estimates. We view the valuation as rather neutral with upside potential as the discount versus our peer group expands into double digits based on our 2026 estimates. We maintain our EUR 2.7 TP and ACCUMULATE rating.