Consti - Short-term outlook remains modest
Consti’s outlook for 2026 was on the softer side, with the challenging market conditions not showing signs of easing in the short-term. Fortunately, little points to notable weakening. We now expect flat revenue and EBIT growth in 2026, which stretches multiples, but with expectations of market recovery and order backlog driven support in 2027 retain our ACCUMULATE-rating and TP of EUR 12.5.
Solid Q4 numbers, but market outlook remains challenging
Consti posted solid Q4 figures, with revenue, EBIT, EPS and dividend proposal all exceeded our expectations slightly. Order intake and guidance were the main negatives. Consti’s order intake was only EUR 44.3m, a decline of 33.4% compared to Q4/2024, and order backlog was down 13% y/y. There are pricing pressures on the market and Consti chose not to compromise profitability to win additional tenders. Management emphasized a clear visibility for following six-month time horizon, during which signs of market improvement are not expected. Consti expects EBIT to be in the range of EUR 8-11m in 2026, with our estimate for 2026 down to EUR 9.5m (EUR 10.9m).
2026e EBIT estimate down ~13%
Due to low order intake and soft guidance, we lowered our estimates for both this year and the next year to reflect slower market development. We expect the demand situation to improve by 2027. For 2026 we expect flat revenue and EBIT growth. For 2027 we expect ~20% EBIT growth to EUR 11.5m, aided by the recently signed significant contract, which will start to generate revenue during the latter half of 2026. Consti’s operations are currently streamlined, and well prepared for recovery, but the market is still holding back.
ACCUMULATE with a target price of EUR 12.5
On our lowered estimates, valuation for 2026 looks stretched (P/E ~14x vs 5-yr avg. ~11x). Our expectations for revenue growth in 2027 are based essentially solely on the impact of the recently signed large contract and with further potential through market recovery retain our ACCUMULATE-rating and target price of EUR 12.5.