CapMan - Focus on signs of AUM growth

Expect a modest quarter, in line with the previous softness

CapMan reports Q4 results on February 13th. Our expectations are on the softer given our anticipation of lack of any notable carried interest and modest investment returns. On the latter we see added uncertainty from year-end revaluations in real estate funds but still expect slightly positive overall fair value changes. As evidenced by limitations made on withdrawals from RE funds of certain other asset management companies and notions of low transaction volumes, the asset class faces challenges. Although valuation levels may remain on the challenging side, CapMan though its fund structure and smaller share of open-ended funds is less affected. We expect an EBIT of EUR 2.1m, driven by the Management Company business, where we also expect a slightly slower quarter due to fundraising expectations set more towards H1/25. We have only made minor estimates adjustments ahead of the Q4 report.

Expected to improve y/y from a weaker 2024

The outlook going into 2025 remains hazy given market conditions and with CapMan not expected to provide a numeric guidance. Any comments regarding fundraising of the NRE IV fund are of interest, as one notable driver of organic earnings growth next year, and of course any other new initiatives. We expect to see earnings picking up next year from the rather meager 2024. Potential for continued improvements in fee-based profitability remains in place, with the pace dependent on H1 fundraising activity. On our estimates, we expect the larger share of earnings improvement to come from investment returns and carried interest, which have been low during 2024. Timing and market uncertainties still remain an adverse factor but the sentiment for pick-up in overall economic activity appears to be cautiously optimistic, which in turn should aid the transaction market.

BUY with a TP of EUR 2.0 (ex-div)

We see no larger changes to our views ahead of Q4 and our estimates are largely intact. We adjust our TP to EUR 2.0 (ex-div, prev. EUR 2.1). We expect CapMan to propose a distribution of EUR 0.14 per share, in line with previous communication.