CapMan - Expect a softer start to the year

Market environment seen to impact Q1
CapMan will report Q1 earnings on April 28th. With the on-going Ukraine crisis and the impact on the market environment we expect some softness in the earnings. We anticipate seeing lower investment returns q/q given the weaker stock market development and resulting impact on valuation multiples. The direct impacts on investment objects however appear to be limited. As a reminder, CapMan has divested its market portfolio, which was a source of earnings weakness in the early stages of the pandemic. CapMan wrote-down the goodwill relating to its Russia business but still has some investments, commitments and receivables relating to the operations. We have pre-emptively assumed that some write-downs will be made. Our Q1 operating profit estimate is now EUR 10.7m (prev. EUR 16.7m).

Still set for clear earnings improvements y/y
Our 2022e estimates are down by 14% following the aforementioned adjustments and some further downward tweaks to our investment return estimates. Earnings are still set to improve considerably y/y, aided by carried interest, with the NRE I -fund expected to have entered carry during Q1. The uncertainty relating to the amount of carry is very high and the Q1 report should add needed visibility. We still see that CapMan is in a good position to achieve quarterly average earnings levels of EUR 10m+ in the near-term.

BUY with a target price of EUR 3.2 (3.4)
We have as mentioned made some adjustments to our estimates and accordingly finetune our target price to EUR 3.2 (prev. EUR 3.4). We retain our BUY-rating. Valuation based on multiples is still not challenging (2022e P/E <10x) and dividends continue to support the investment case.