Aspo - ESL and Telko below our estimates
Aspo’s EUR 8.9m Q4 comparable EBITA landed clearly below our EUR 12.1m estimate due to ESL especially, where demand still wasn’t great while there were also customer plant outages and challenging weather.
- Aspo Q4 revenue came in at EUR 158.0m vs the EUR 165.2m/152.6m Evli/consensus estimates. Comparable EBITA amounted to EUR 8.9m vs the EUR 12.1m/9.7m Evli/consensus estimates.
- ESL revenue was EUR 51.7m, compared to the EUR 56.5m/53.0m Evli/consensus estimates, while comparable EBITA landed at EUR 3.8m vs our EUR 7.0m estimate. The continued weak spot market and softer than expected forest industry demand negatively impacted profitability especially in the Coaster vessel segment. Several key customers had production plant outages, and severe storms across Western Europe challenged operational efficiency.
- Telko revenue was EUR 67.6m vs the EUR 72.3m/70.5m Evli/consensus estimates. Comparable EBITA was EUR 4.4m vs our EUR 4.8m estimate. Sales margin improved, driven by a higher share of specialty products, while volumes were in decline due to modest demand particularly in Europe.
- Leipurin revenue amounted to EUR 38.7m, compared to the EUR 36.4m/36.5m Evli/consensus estimates, whereas comparable EBITA was EUR 2.0m vs our EUR 1.5m estimate.
- The BoD proposes a dividend per share of EUR 0.25 to be distributed for FY’25, compared to the EUR 0.25/0.26 Evli/consensus estimates.
- Aspo guides FY’26 comparable EBITA from continuing operations to increase compared to the previous year (EUR 29.4m). ESL’s demand is expected to slightly improve with spot market pricing also gradually improving from the current low levels, while high level of dockings is expected to negatively impact Q2’26. Telko’s market is expected to develop overall stable going forward. Telko is expected to continue to grow through M&A in FY’26, and possible acquisition-related expenses are excluded from the comparable EBITA.