A service provider of emission-free energy solutions
Enersense’s Q2 was weak, and H2 is set to remain modest. There’s still much uncertainty around the improvement slope, however valuation appears neutral relative to peers.
Inflation and certain low project volumes hurt Q2 results
Enersense’s Q2 top line declined 3% y/y to EUR 59.8m. The softness was mostly due to Smart Industry, where e.g. lower Olkiluoto project volumes explained the fall. The war also led to project delays, and the ICT strike hurt volumes within Connectivity (it also suffered from inflation particularly due to fuel). Inflation, which in the case of Enersense mostly means higher metal and fuel prices, is especially a problem in the Baltics, where long contracts also add to the pain. International Operations thus saw a marked decline in profitability even when revenue grew by 14% y/y. Existing framework agreements suffer from inflation, although Enersense has been able to make some progress in adjusting their rates for higher costs. Power fared relatively well due to its more dynamic nature of business.
Enersense continues to work towards its targets
Inflation was a major issue as adj. EBITDA fell to EUR -0.4m from EUR 4.8m a year ago. Enersense sees Q3 as the most profitable quarter also this year even though inflation continues to hurt results in H2. Investments in offshore wind capabilities will still be a burden in H2, in addition to which ERP investments are set to continue for a few years. H2 profitability will remain far below potential, but volumes continue to grow as recent orders announced over the summer indicate. There are also no major issues with e.g. labor availability. Enersense recently announced the acquisition of Voimatel to add to Connectivity and Power, but the deal still waits for competition authority approvals.
Valuation appears broadly in line with peers
We cut our FY ’23 adj. EBITDA estimate to EUR 16.7m from EUR 22.2m due to the current challenges. Enersense is valued some 5.5x EV/EBITDA and 12x EV/EBIT on our FY ’23 estimates. The earnings multiples are broadly in line with those of peers; there remains much uncertainty around next year’s margins, but our estimated 2.9% EBIT is still not that high a level. Enersense’s multiples are close to Eltel’s, and the two are also similar in the sense that FY ’22 results are set to be modest for both. Our new TP is EUR 6 (8); we retain our HOLD rating.
Enersense’s Q2 results were known before the official release as the company disclosed preliminary figures in connection with a negative earnings guidance revision.
The CMD added color on Enersense’s plans to expand its print in the renewables value chain. Wind power, on sea as well as land, is the key in multiplying revenue and earnings as the company will both develop and own wind farms.
EUR 500m revenue and EUR 100m EBITDA by 2027
Enersense targets EUR 300m revenue for the current construction and EUR 100m for the current wind power business by 2027. The former would contribute EUR 30m EBITDA and the latter EUR 35m. The Megatuuli acquisition helps the company to have a say on the kinds of wind power projects that get developed. Proprietary renewables production is to be ramped up to EUR 100m revenue, or 600-700MW of mostly Finnish onshore wind power capacity, which requires some EUR 300m of equity-like capital (assuming 40% equity ratio, depending on the exact financing structure, which we assume could include e.g. hybrid instruments). The projects would be valued at some 20x EV/EBITDA (an IRR of around 5-10%). Enersense develops its offshore wind power platforms to tackle the pack ice challenges. The Baltic wind power market also has plenty of growth potential as there’s not yet much local capacity.
Wind power dominates, but other renewables also figure in
The Finnish wind power market is now the most important but not the only focus area. Enersense also has interest towards solar energy as the company views it an overlooked source in Finland. Within nuclear power Enersense is involved in France and the UK, besides Finland. The new European project of energy self-sufficiency in general greatly helps Enersense’s long-term outlook and includes such concrete prospects as the Baltic transmission network’s desynchronization from the Russian system. Another opportunity is found in Finland, where the EV stock is expected to grow at an above 20% CAGR during this decade. There’s always the potential for some additional M&A, but we believe the already identified renewable production pipeline will claim most of the focus during the years to come.
The transformation happens gradually over the years
We make no changes to our estimates for now, but it’s clear Enersense’s financial profile is going to change a lot over the coming years as the company begins to add its own renewable energy production. We retain our EUR 8 TP and HOLD rating.
Enersense’s Q1 profitability figures beat our estimates but cost inflation can hurt figures more during the rest of the year. Long-term outlook remains favorable thanks to the green vertically integrated strategy, but we view current valuation overall fair.
Strong headline EBITDA, but mixed results underneath
Enersense’s revenue was up by 1% y/y to EUR 53.8m, compared to our EUR 54.2m estimate. Smart Industry’s figures declined due to the Staff Leasing sale as well as the lower than estimated Olkiluoto nuclear power plant volumes. The Olkiluoto project hit profitability, and together with the Enersense Offshore integration helped produce an EBITDA of EUR -1.0m. Connectivity and International Operations were able to grow at double-digit rates as Covid-19 was no longer a major issue, but their EBITDA declined due to inflation. Power grew a lot more than we expected and contributed to the group EUR 5.5m adj. EBITDA, compared to our EUR 2.7m estimate, as high revenue, project execution and Megatuuli acquisition drove profitability.
Cost inflationary effects on H2 figures remain to be seen
Enersense retains its guidance as the war causes some project delays this spring and hence Q2 figures will be relatively low. Q3 and Q4 should again be comparatively strong (winter and spring are always somewhat quiet), but inflation and material availability add to uncertainty. The underlying improvement pace in H2 is still unclear especially when acquisitions have complicated the picture. We revise our adj. EBITDA estimates down by 17% for the remainder of the year while our revenue estimate is almost intact. The war and its effects may have a short-term negative effect on Enersense’s performance, but its long-term consequences are likely to be beneficial ones as governments accelerate e.g. wind power investments.
We consider current valuation neutral
Enersense’s multiples for the next few years are still low relative to peers, assuming profitability continues to improve, whereas the multiples for FY ’22 represent a slight premium. We therefore argue the current valuation is overall fair in the current high inflation environment. Successful execution and strong underlying profitability in H2 would be a likely upside driver. We retain our EUR 8 TP. Our rating is now HOLD (BUY).
Enersense’s Q1 profitability figures topped our estimates. The company reiterates its guidance, however Q2 profitability will be relatively weak this year due to project delays caused by the war.
Enersense’s Q4 figures were a bit higher than we estimated, earnings guidance was softer, but the overall picture hasn’t changed much as renewables remain in high demand.
No major surprises in connection with the report
Enersense’s Q4 top line declined by 3% y/y, mostly due to the sale of Staff Leasing business, to EUR 65.9m and was above our EUR 63.0m estimate. The revenue beat was largely due to International Operations, but Power was also above our estimates. Certain M&A related items, both positive and negative, affected results, but overall profitability was slightly above our estimates. Infections continued to bother in certain projects, however these are unlikely to be a major issue going forward. Long-term profitability improving investments in IT and offshore wind power business will burden results this year, and we revise our FY ’22 profitability estimates down by some EUR 3m.
Latest macro changes are more likely to be supportive
There is some inflation risk, especially in the Baltics as the local contracts are long, but the contracts tend to compensate for cost pressures as now seen to some extent in raw materials and wages. Enersense has expanded its value chain presence with two recent acquisitions, and these don’t involve any significant integration issues. Enersense will also update its long-term targets later in H1’22 (the current target is 10% EBITDA margin by 2025 whereas we estimate 7.3% margin for FY ’22). Offshore wind power is a major growth driver going forward as it is a relatively underdeveloped space compared to onshore. The latest shifts in geopolitics do not in our view pose significant risks for Enersense, rather they are bound to accelerate the European transfer away from hydrocarbons and major initiatives in e.g. Germany could yet play out favorably for Enersense’s strategy.
Valuation is not challenging in either short or long term
Our EUR 18.2m EBITDA estimate for FY ’22 lands a bit above the midpoint of the EUR 15-20m range, which we don’t view very challenging. The respective 5.5x EV/EBITDA and 12x EV/EBIT multiples aren’t high compared to peers, and valuation is even more attractive in the long-term perspective as Enersense should achieve relatively steep earnings growth. Peer multiples have, however, continued to decline in the past two months and we update our TP to EUR 8 (10). Our rating remains BUY.
Enersense’s Q4 report was overall relatively close to our expectations. The Q4 figures came in a bit higher than we estimated, while guidance represents a small miss in terms of profitability. The BoD however proposes a dividend of EUR 0.1 per share to be paid, which we did not expect.
Enersense’s Q3 report was soft and left doubts with respect to the FY ’21 guidance. The company has now made upgrades to the guidance, but these seem to have been to a large extent driven by acquisition-related revaluations. Enersense nevertheless continues to progress with long-term strategy and is about to close two investments.
We make some updates to our Q4 adj. EBIT(DA) estimates
Enersense revised its FY ’21 earnings guidance upwards. Enersense still expects EUR 215-245m in revenue, but now sees adj. EBITDA over EUR 19m (prev. EUR 17-20m) and adj. EBIT over EUR 11m (prev. EUR 8-11m). We leave our revenue estimate unchanged, update our Q4 adj. EBITDA estimate to EUR 7.4m (prev. EUR 5.6m) and that for adj. EBIT to EUR 5.1m (prev. EUR 3.3m). The underlying performance remains somewhat unclear because the guidance update was driven by revaluations related to the Enersense Offshore Oy acquisition.
Long-term earnings growth outlook should solidify
Enersense is about to expand its renewable energy solutions scope with the closure of two acquisitions in a month or so. The company will buy a significant stake in a green hydrogen producer called P2X and acquire an onshore wind farm developer in an all-share transaction. The latter target will be earnings accretive already in FY ’22; the acquisition of Megatuuli will contribute a cumulative EUR 20-40m in EBIT by 2025. Meanwhile an ERP investment will burden results this year along with a process related to the integration and development of Enersense Offshore, however the latter initiative should contribute to results in FY ’23. We leave our estimates for FY ’22 and ’23 unchanged for now, but Enersense will update its long-term financial targets in Q1.
Valuation remains undemanding
Enersense’s peer multiples have stayed pretty much unchanged over the past few months. Enersense continues to trade at modest multiples relative to peers. We believe Enersense’s vertical integration within the renewables value chain beyond construction and maintenance activities will help balance business risks, and hence long-term upside remains significant. Meanwhile short-term visibility isn’t still that great and thus we lower our TP to EUR 10 (11). Our rating remains BUY.
Enersense Q3 figures didn’t meet our estimates, but the company retained its guidance, and we see the Q3 softness was to a large extent attributable to project timing issues.
Q3 figures were not as strong as we had expected
Enersense Q3 revenue was EUR 58.3m, compared to our EUR 63.8m estimate. The softness was due to Smart Industry, where top line was EUR 18.7m vs our EUR 23.9m estimate. July was slow and pretty much according to the company’s own expectations, as certain projects did not start until later. Power continued to reach good profitability, while Connectivity still has some work ahead on that front. International Operations’ profitability was burdened by challenges in the Baltic states, where e.g. inflation is more of a problem than in Finland. Enersense Q3 adj. EBITDA was EUR 4.4m vs our EUR 6.5m estimate. The company retained its guidance, which implies relatively strong Q4. In our view Enersense continues to progress well and according to their own plan, and the Q3 softness was to a large extent attributable to project timing issues.
Q4 estimates up a bit, some downward annual revisions
Enersense sees Q4 margin gains to be driven by Finland and we expect improved results already from Connectivity. The Baltic countries are a market where Enersense will find more attractive projects long-term, however we don’t expect alleviation to short-term profitability challenges during Q4. We now estimate Q4 adj. EBITDA at EUR 5.6m (prev. EUR 5.3m) and Q4 adj. EBIT at EUR 3.3m (prev. EUR 3.1m), and hence our FY ‘21 adj. EBITDA estimate is down to EUR 17.3m (prev. EUR 19.2m) and that for adj. EBIT to EUR 9.5m (prev. EUR 10.8m). The recent small acquisition of Pori Offshore Constructions got off to a good start as the company won a contract for a port of HaminaKotka project. Enersense still looks for additional smaller or larger M&A targets, and the company had some EUR 27m in cash at the end of Q3.
Peer group discount remains significant
We revise our FY ’21 profitability estimates down by some 10%, while we downgrade our FY ’22-23 estimates by only a few percentage points. Enersense’s peers’ earnings multiples have decreased by around 5% in the past few months, and thus we update our TP to EUR 11 (13). Enersense’s earnings-based valuation remains unchallenging; we retain our BUY rating.
Enersense Q3 figures came in soft compared to our estimates, but the company nevertheless retains its FY ’21 guidance, which implies stronger than expected Q4. The Q4 tilt is due to project cycles and the result is a more balanced quarterly performance since Q3 is often the strongest quarter.
Enersense’s Q2 was much as expected. Margins are already decent, and we see plenty of scope for long-term gains.
Q2 figures did not reveal many surprises
Enersense’s Q2 revenue amounted to EUR 61.6m, compared to our EUR 57.5m estimate. We find the top line beat was for the most part due to International Operations (EUR 14.8m vs our EUR 11.5m estimate) as the other three segments were all close to our estimates. The positive surprise was in our view due to strong development in the Baltics, but France also contributed. Connectivity faced challenging winter conditions in Q2, but the segment’s revenue was nonetheless a bit above our estimate. There are no meaningful comparison figures due to the Empower acquisition, however Q2 profitability was as we expected. Adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 4.8m vs our EUR 4.7m estimate, while adj. EBIT was EUR 2.8m vs our EUR 2.6m estimate.
We make limited updates to our estimates
Empower integration proceeds according to plan and add-on acquisitions are possible already near-term. Enersense reiterated its current guidance and sees EUR 215-245m in revenue while adj. EBITDA should be in the EUR 17-20m range (adj. EBIT EUR 8-11m). We have made only minor revisions to our estimates and expect Enersense to land near the upper end of the guidance range. Enersense has a long-term EBITDA margin target of 10% (by 2025); we see the company is headed close to 8% already this year and 8.5% doesn’t seem that challenging to achieve in the year following. We continue to expect 4.6% organic growth in FY ’22, meaning Enersense should reach at least EUR 21m in EBITDA and EUR 12m in EBIT then.
Organic performance and low multiples underpin upside
Enersense is valued 5x EV/EBITDA and 9x EV/EBIT on our FY ’22 estimates. We find the earnings multiples imply a sizeable discount relative to peers while Enersense’s organic growth outlook and profitability are, in our view, in line with the general sector estimates. Our EBITDA margin estimates are also on the conservative side compared to Enersense’s 10% target and we expect only some 3.5% organic CAGR for the coming years, whereas Enersense’s own EUR 300m long-term organic top line target implies a CAGR many percentage points above our estimates. We retain our EUR 13 TP and BUY rating.
Enersense’s Q2 report didn’t offer many surprises. Enersense’s operations and strategy seem to proceed pretty much according to plan.
Enersense completed its directed share issue and thus raised some EUR 16m in gross proceeds. The company is looking into some growth initiatives that would deploy the capital. These could involve organic growth prospects but in our opinion M&A is also high on the agenda. We have made small adjustments to our estimates. Our TP is now EUR 13 (11) and we retain our BUY rating.
Current markets offer both organic and M&A potential
Enersense already had a healthy balance sheet with a positive net cash position and there wasn’t any acute pressing need to raise additional cash. The company had some EUR 23m in cash at the end of Q1. This suggests there will now be close to EUR 40m in available funds plus possible additional debt facilities. In our opinion such an amount could enable Enersense to acquire targets with around EUR 100m in revenue, considering the relatively low EV/S multiples seen across the relevant sectors. At this point it remains unclear which segment Enersense might be looking to bolster. In our view Enersense has wide M&A opportunities in both Finland and abroad. The Finnish Power market is currently driven by e.g. wind power investments, while 5G will remain a major driver for Connectivity for years to come. Enersense is already a big Finnish player in these two related construction and maintenance markets, and there remain some smaller service suppliers the company might be contemplating to acquire. The Finnish smart industry market, by contrast, represents a much wider opportunity set, not to mention the potential overseas scope.
Long-term financial target amounts to EUR 30m in EBITDA
We make small adjustments to our estimates following the transaction. We understand Empower synergies continue to materialize well and we see the company is on track to reach annual EUR 20m run-rate EBITDA in the near-term, while the long-term target implies EUR 30m.
Valuation remains undemanding relative to potential
Enersense still trades at modest multiples, and the ca. 6x EV/EBITDA and 11x EV/EBIT on our estimates for next year represent meaningful discounts compared to peers. Our new TP is EUR 13 (11) and we retain our BUY rating.
On Thursday, Enersense announced the transition to IFRS reporting and new guidance. Enersense expects net sales to amount to EUR 215-245m, adj. EBITDA of EUR 17-20m, and adj. EBIT of EUR 8-11m in 2021. We have updated our estimates in accordance with IFRS reporting and retain our TP of EUR 11 and BUY-rating.
Staff Leasing segment will be discontinued
Enersense announced the transition to IFRS reporting and published consolidated financial statements for 2020 and 2019. With the transition, the company updated its guidance and expects net sales to amount to EUR 215-245m, adj. EBITDA of EUR 17-20m, and adj. EBIT of EUR 8-11m in 2021. Enersense also announced that it has agreed to sell the entire share capital of its subsidiary Värväämö Oy to Citywork Oy. Staff Leasing segment will be discontinued and it will be reported as part of Smart Industry. Thus, the company will report its revenue in the future based on four segments; Power, Smart Industry, Connectivity, and International Operations.
We expect net sales of EUR 235.1m, adj. EBITDA of EUR 18.8m and adj. EBIT of EUR 10.4m in 2021E
We have adjusted our estimates with the transition to IFRS. Due to the divestment of Värväämö, we have decreased our net sales estimate for 2021E to EUR 235.1 million (prev. EUR 242m). Our growth estimates of 4.6% and 3.9% for 2022E-23E are unchanged. In 2021E, we expect adj. EBITDA of EUR 18.8m (8% margin) and adj. EBIT of EUR 10.4m (4.4% margin), respectively. We note that Enersense has not provided IFRS figures for Q1/21 and Q1/21 figures below are our estimates.
No changes to our recommendation
Based on our updated estimates, we have not made changes to our recommendation. We retain our TP of EUR 11 and BUY-rating.
Enersense reported a better-than-expected Q1 result and 9% increase in the order backlog compared to the end of Q4/20. The company also announced that it has concluded negotiations on a new financing package. We have made upward revisions to our estimates and raise our TP to EUR 11 (9.7), BUY-rating intact.
Orders increased especially in Power and the Baltics
Enersense’s Q1 net sales and profitability beat our expectations. Net sales amounted to EUR 52.4m (Evli EUR 44.5m) and adj. EBITDA was EUR 1.7m (Evli EUR 0.5m). Order backlog increased by 9% from EUR 292m at the end of 2020 to EUR 319m at the end of Q1. Orders increased especially in the Power segment and the Baltics. Enersense also announced that it has concluded negotiations on a new financing package, which will be used to develop operations and manage working capital.
Our revised estimates are at the upper end of the guidance
Q1 is typically a challenging quarter for Enersense due to the weather conditions, and revenue and profitability are expected to increase towards the end of the year. The order backlog continued to grow rapidly in Q1 and according to the management, the market outlook is very positive as demand is expected to remain strong especially in Power and Smart Industry. Supported by increased orders and good outlook, we have raised our 2021E net sales estimate to EUR 242m (prev. EUR 230m). We have also made upward revisions to 2022-23E sales estimates, and forecast 4.6% and 3.9% growth, respectively. We expect adj. EBITDA to increase from EUR 8.9m to EUR 14.4m in 2021E. Both our net sales and adj. EBITDA estimates are at the upper end of guidance for 2021 (net sales: EUR 215-245m, adj. EBITDA: EUR 12-15m).
BUY with a target price of EUR 11 (9.7)
On our estimates for 2022E, Enersense is trading at EV/EBITDA of 5.6x and adj. P/E of 10.8x, which translate into discount of 23-30% to our peer group median. Better-than-expected results in Q1, renegotiated short-term financing and continued growth in the order backlog increase our confidence in the investment case, and we raise our TP to EUR 11 (9.7), BUY-rating intact. Our TP values Enersense at EV/EBITDA of 6.3x and adj. P/E of 12.3x for 2022E, which are still at 13-21% discount to peer group, reflecting Enersense’s currently lower profitability profile. If Enersense manages to increase net sales and improve margins in line with the midterm financial targets, we see further upside potential in valuation.
Enersense’s Q1 net sales and profitability beat our expectations. Net sales amounted to EUR 52.4m (Evli EUR 44.5m) and adj. EBITDA was EUR 1.7m (Evli EUR 0.5m). Enersense also announced that it has concluded negotiations on a new financing package.
We initiate coverage of Enersense with a BUY rating and a TP of EUR 9.7. Enersense’s turnaround in profitability progressed well in 2020 and, in our view, the valuation looks moderate considering Enersense’s increased and healthier order backlog as well as potential synergies of the Empower acquisition.
2020 was a big year for Enersense
Enersense International Oyj is a service provider of emission-free energy solutions in the industry, energy, telecommunication, and construction sectors. In 2020, Enersense’s business changed significantly. Enersense acquired Empower, thus expanding its business from recruiting and resource management services to a solution provider for the Smart industry, Power, and Connectivity markets. Enersense also managed to improve its EBITDA from EUR -0.8m in 2019 to EUR 7.2m in 2020. The focus in 2021 is on improving profitability, growing in domestic and selected international markets, and continuing the integration of the Empower acquisition.
Our estimates for 2021E are at the midpoint of the guidance
In 2021E, we expect Enersense’s net sales to grow strongly as Empower’s figures are included in net sales for the full year. The order backlog has increased significantly from EUR 130m in August 2020 to EUR 300m at the end of 2020 and we expect this strong order inflow to support Enersense in reaching net sales of EUR 230m. In 2022-23E, we forecast the group revenue to grow by 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively. We estimate adj. EBITDA to increase from EUR 8.9m (6.2% margin) to EUR 13.5m (5.9% margin) in 2021E driven by the consolidation of Empower’s full-year figures, a healthier project portfolio, and streamlining of operations. We expect the synergies of the Empower integration to be more visible in Enersense’s profitability from 2022 onwards and EBITDA margin to increase to 6.5% in 2022E and 6.8% in 2023E.
BUY with a target price of EUR 9.7
In our view, the valuation looks moderate considering Enersense’s increased and healthier order backlog as well as potential synergies of the Empower acquisition. On our estimates for 2022E, Enersense is trading at EV/EBITDA of 5.5x and adj. P/E of 10.7x, which translate into discount of 21-28% to our peer group median. We initiate coverage with a BUY-rating and a target price of EUR 9.7. Our TP values Enersense at EV/EBITDA of 6.1x and adj. P/E of 11.8x for 2022E, which are still at 13-21% discount to peer group, reflecting Enersense’s lower profitability profile and as we look for more signs of further margin improvement and faster organic growth. If Enersense manages to increase net sales and improve margins in line with the midterm financial targets, there is further upside potential in valuation.
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Enersense guides 2022 revenue to be in the EUR 245-265m range, while adjusted EBITDA is to be EUR 6-12m
EUR 500m in revenue and EUR 100m in EBITDA by 2027
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