Talenom |

Fast growing technology driven accounting services company

| Finland

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Financial overview

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Talenom - Defensive characteristics showing

28.04.2020 | Company update

Talenom’s Q1 results slightly beat our expectations, with net sales of EUR 17.4m (Evli 16.9m) and EBIT of EUR 3.7m (Evli 3.5m). Net sales and EBIT guidance for 2020 was set at EUR 64-68m and 12-14m respectively. Growth outlook remains favourable and any plausible impact from the coronavirus pandemic for now appears limited. We adjust our target price to EUR 7.0 (6.7), HOLD-rating intact.

Q1 slightly better than expected
Talenom’s Q1 results were slightly better than expected. Net sales grew 17.4% to EUR 17.4m (Evli 16.9m) and EBIT amounted to EUR 3.7m (Evli 3.5m). Talenom gave a numeric guidance for 2020, expecting net sales of EUR 64-68m and EBIT of EUR 12-14m. Sales plans have progressed almost in line with plans despite the coronavirus pandemic. Investments are being made to customer interfaces and plans for a new concept for small customers were floated, which sounds promising but will likely have little sales impact before 2021. Additional financing of EUR 10m was secured for acquisitions and growth projects in Finland and Sweden.

Near-term risks limited
Our post-Q1 estimates revisions are minuscule and we expect 2020E net sales and EBIT of EUR 67.3m and EUR 12.5m respectively. Near-term risks due to the pandemic are limited, with transactional volumes possibly affected. A prolonged situation and an increase in defaults would have a heavier impact on 2021 due to customer bookkeeping obligations. The resilience of the bookkeeping market is noteworthy, and the near-term uncertainty may open more opportunities for inorganic growth.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 7.0 (6.7)
Talenom remains an attractive investment case through its track-record and defensive nature, valuation slightly less so, with the share price essentially at pre-COVID levels. We adjust our target price to EUR 7.0 (6.7), valuing Talenom at ~32x 2020E P/E, and retain our HOLD-rating.

Talenom - Earnings flash - Upbeat Q1 report

27.04.2020 | Earnings Flash

Talenom's net sales in Q1 amounted to EUR 17.4m, slightly above our and consensus estimates (EUR 16.9m/17.0m Evli/cons.). EBIT amounted to EUR 3.7m, slightly above our and consensus estimates (EUR 3.5m/3.5m Evli/cons.). Net sales for 2020 are expected to amount to EUR 64-68m and operating profit to EUR 12-14m.

  • Net sales in Q1 were EUR 17.4m (EUR 14.8m in Q1/19), slightly above our estimates and consensus estimates (EUR 16.9m/17.0m Evli/Cons.). Growth in Q1 amounted to 17.4 % y/y.
  • Operating profit in Q1 amounted to EUR 3.7m (EUR 3.4m in Q1/19), above our estimates and consensus estimates (EUR 3.5m/3.5m Evli/cons.), at a margin of 21.4 %.
  • EPS in Q1 amounted to EUR 0.07 (EUR 0.06 in Q1/19), above our and consensus estimates (EUR 0.06/0.06 Evli/cons.).
  • Sales team has changed over to a distance sales model and sales still almost in line with plans despite the coronavirus pandemic.
  • An additional loan of EUR 10m has been negotiated, that can be used for acquisitions and for other projects in support of growth in Finland and Sweden.
  • Guidance 2020: Net sales for 2020 are expected to amount to EUR 64-68m and operating profit to EUR 12-14m (Evli 2020E: 68.8m and 12.6m respectively). Previous guidance: 2020 is expected to be in line with 2019 in terms of relative growth in net sales and relative profitability.

Talenom - Share issue update, TP EUR 6.7

02.03.2020 | Company update

Talenom made a share issue without payment on the 28.2. to improve share liquidity, with five new shares for each existing share, after which the nr. of shares amounts to 41.836m. We adjust our target price to EUR 6.7 (prev. split adj. EUR 6.83) accounting for dividend distribution (split. adj. EUR 0.125 per share) and retain our HOLD-rating.

Share issue without payment to improve share liquidity

Talenom made a share issue without payment on the 28.2. to improve the liquidity of its share, with five new shares given for each existing share, upon which the number of shares increased to 41.836m (6x pre-issue). We have since our previous update adjusted our quarterly estimates due to the impact of the Income Register, which based on discussion with management should be just below double the Q4/19 impact and we have as such lowered our Q1/20 revenue and EBIT estimates by EUR 0.6m, while upward adjustments to the latter quarters in the year keep our full year estimates intact. Talenom announced the acquisition of Addvalue Advisors on the 28.2., a bookkeeping company with around EUR 0.5m in revenue. The acquisition has no material impact on our estimates.

Growth and profitability improvement in 2020

Talenom expects relative growth in net sales and relative profitability in 2020 to be in line with 2019. We expect revenue in 2020 to grow 18.7% to EUR 68.8m mainly due to organic growth in Finland, with revenue growth in Sweden in our view expected to start to show in 2021. We expect EBIT to amount to EUR 12.6m, with growth of ~21% y/y.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 6.7

We adjust our target price to EUR 6.7 (prev. split adj. EUR 6.83), taking into account the distribution of dividend (record date 27.2., split adj. EUR 0.125 per share). Our target price values Talenom at ~30x 2020E P/E. With valuation in line with our estimates we retain our HOLD-rating.

Talenom - Sights remain set on growth

04.02.2020 | Company update

Talenom’s Q4 results fell below our expectations, with EBIT at EUR 1.5m (Evli 2.6m), driven by higher than anticipated D&A and the impact of the introduction of the Incomes Register. The impact of growth investments on profitability in 2020 appears somewhat larger than previously anticipated and we have lowered our 2020-2021E EBIT estimates by ~10%. We raise our TP to EUR 41 (37.5) but downgrade to HOLD.

EBIT in Q4 clearly below expectations

Talenom’s Q4 results were below our expectations. Revenue grew 19.8% to EUR 14.9m (Evli 15.1m), while EBIT amounted to EUR 1.5m (Evli 2.6m). Compared with our estimates the difference was largely due to higher than anticipated D&A and introduction of the Incomes Register. D&A expenses increased as depreciation of the latest implementations of the bookkeeping line began in Q4. One-off items were limited although year-end reviews to our understanding also affected the elevated expenses.

Growth investments pressuring margin improvements

Talenom’s expects relative growth in net sales and relative profitability in 2020 to be in line with 2019. We see that margin improvement potential remains possible in 2020 through enhanced operational efficiency in acquired businesses and from the bookkeeping line improvements. More importantly, Talenom is in our view seeking to maintain momentum on growth and targeting geographical expansion and growth in smaller customer segments domestically as well as growth pick-up in Sweden. Talenom also emphasized focus on customer retention and satisfaction. With growth investments expected to increase we now only expect a 0.4pp EBIT-margin improvement and sales growth of 18.9% in 2020.

HOLD (BUY) with a target price of EUR 41 (37.5)

Talenom is in our view continuing on a healthy long-term track. We have lowered our 2020-2021E EBIT estimates by around 10%. With the outlook still remaining solid we raise our target price to EUR 41 (37.5), valuing Talenom at 30x 2020E P/E. With the share price having picked up we downgrade to HOLD (BUY).

Talenom - Miss on EBIT

03.02.2020 | Earnings Flash

Talenom’s Q4 results were below our expectations due to a miss on profitability. Net sales amounted to EUR 14.9m (Evli/cons. EUR 15.1m) while the operating profit amounted to EUR 1.5m (Evli/cons. EUR 2.6/2.4m). Talenom reiterated its guidance for 2020, expecting relative growth and relative profitability to be in line with 2019. Talenom proposes a dividend of EUR 0.75 (Evli/cons. 0.74/0.71).

  • Talenom’s net sales in Q4 amounted to EUR 14.9m (EUR 12.4m in Q4/18), in line with our and consensus estimates (Evli/cons. EUR 15.1m). Revenue growth in Q4 was 19.8% y/y.
  • Introduction of the Incomes Register had a negative impact of EUR 0.33m on net sales and operating profit in Q4/19.
  • The operating profit in Q4 was EUR 1.5m (EUR 1.5m in Q4/18), below our and consensus estimates (Evli/cons. EUR 2.6/2.4m), at a margin of 9.8%. The operating profit miss was mainly due to higher than estimated depreciation and amortization.
  • Guidance reiterated: the relative growth in net sales and relative profitability in 2020 expected to be in line with 2019.
  • Net investments during in 2019 EUR 15.4m compared with 9.5m in 2018.
  • Talenom proposes a dividend of EUR 0.75 per share (Evli/cons. 0.74/0.71).

Talenom - Upgrade to buy

22.10.2019 | Company update

Talenom continued to post solid growth and profitability figures in Q3, with revenue slightly below our optimistic estimates. Talenom gave a guidance for 2020, expecting net sales growth and relative profitability to be in line with 2019, rather similar to our expectations. With the added visibility given by the guidance we set our sights towards 2020, raising our target price to EUR 37.5 (36.0) and upgrade to BUY (HOLD).

Gave guidance for 2020

Talenom’s net sales in Q3 amounted to EUR 13.5m (Evli 14.2m) and operating profit to EUR 2.4m (Evli 2.5m). A decision to focus staffing services on supporting the core accounting business saw staffing services volumes decline but its profitability improving, although the impact on group figures is minor. Discontinuation of annual payroll reports due to the change in income register will smooth some seasonal variation, with H1 figures expected to gain at the expense of H2 figures. Talenom further gave a guidance for 2020, expecting net sales growth and relative profitability to be in line with 2019.

2019 estimates slightly lower, 2020 largely unchanged

We have lowered our 2019 estimate for net sales to 58.1m (prev. 59.9m) to account for the changes in billing of payroll reports and also seeing some overoptimism in our year end estimates. We expect Talenom to still be able to slightly improve relative profitability in 2020 driven by development of the new bookkeeping production line and scalability. Our 2020-2021 estimates overall remain largely unchanged, as some of the expected net sales growth was shifted to 2020. We expect a sales growth of 19% and EBIT-% of 20.7% in 2020.

Upgrade to BUY (HOLD) with a TP of EUR 37.5 (36.0)

With the added visibility given by the guidance for 2020, we are prepared to set our sights towards 2020. With the narrative of Talenom’s profitable growth story largely unchanged we raise our target price to EUR 37.5, valuing Talenom at a target 2020 P/E of ~24x. With our target price increase and share price declines since our last update we upgrade our rating to BUY.

Talenom - Slightly below expectations

21.10.2019 | Earnings Flash

Talenom’s first quarter results were slightly below our expectations. Net sales amounted to EUR 13.5m (EUR 14.2m Evli) while the operating profit amounted to EUR 2.4m (EUR 2.5m Evli). Talenom reiterated its guidance for 2019 and gave a financial outlook for 2020, expecting growth and relative profitability to be in line with 2019.

  • Talenom’s net sales in Q3 amounted to EUR 13.5m (EUR 11.1m in Q3/18), slightly below our estimates (Evli EUR 14.2m). Revenue growth in Q3 was 21.1% y/y.
  • The operating profit in Q3 was EUR 2.4m (EUR 1.9m in Q3/18), in line with our estimates (Evli EUR 2.5m), at a margin of 17.4%.
  • Talenom’s guidance intact: the net sales growth rate is expected to be greater than in 2018 and the operating profit margin to improve compared to 2018
  • Financial outlook 2020: Growth and profitability expected to be in line with 2019. Our estimates: 2020 revenue growth and EBIT-% 18.0% and 20.7% respectively (2019E: 22.5% and 19.6%)
  • Net investments during 1-9/2019 EUR 12.0m compared with 7.1m during 1-9/2018.

Talenom - Downgrade to HOLD

30.07.2019 | Company update

Talenom’s top- and bottom-line figures in Q2 were quite in line with our estimates, and the larger piece of news was the change of CEO. We have made mostly minor upwards revisions to our estimates due to acquisitions and a faster than anticipated implementation of new automation procedures to the bookkeeping automation line. With valuation becoming stretched due to share price inclines we downgrade to HOLD (BUY) with a TP of EUR 36.0 (35.0)

Earnings in line, CEO to change

Talenom’s Q2 earnings did not deliver any major surprises, with net sales of EUR 14.8m (Evli 14.4m) and EBIT of EUR 3.2m (Evli 3.2m) well in line with our estimates, with the main news being the change of CEO. Otto-Pekka Huhtala (former deputy CEO) has started as CEO as of the 29.7.2019. Talenom gave a limited update on the Talenom Financing Services, having provided EUR 31m financing during H1/19. The potential for the service area remains promising but we expect an insignificant near-term impact.

Estimates revisions mostly minor

We have made minor upwards revisions to our estimates, with only minor adjustments to our 2019 estimates, now expecting 2019 sales of EUR 59.9m and EBIT of EUR 11.7m. We have made slight adjustments to sales estimates to account for the Wasa Tilit and WT Företagstjänster acquisitions, also raising our 2020E sales growth estimate by 2pp to 18%. Talenom has also started to implement the new instance of automation, thus eliminating dependencies to other third-party accounting software. The implementation schedule is ahead of our previous estimates, prompting a minor adjustment to our H2/19 earnings estimates.

HOLD (BUY) with a target price of EUR 36.0 (35.0)

Talenom has enjoyed substantial share price inclines and although Talenom on our estimates is set to continue to deliver solid sales and earnings growth, valuation is becoming a stretch. Our target price and estimates value Talenom at a 2019 P/E multiple of 28.5x, which we still consider justifiable. We downgrade our rating to HOLD (BUY).

Talenom - In line with estimates

29.07.2019 | Earnings Flash

Talenom’s Q2 results were well in line with our estimates, with revenue at EUR 14.8m (Evli EUR 14.4m) and EBIT at EUR 3.2m (Evli EUR 3.2m). Talenom also reported that its CEO will change, with deputy CEO Otto-Pekka Huhtala taking over as CEO from the 29.7.2019.

  • Talenom’s net sales in Q2 amounted to EUR 14.8m (EUR 12.5m during Q2/18), slightly above our estimates (Evli EUR 14.4m). Q2 revenue growth was at 17.7% y/y.
  • The operating profit in Q2 amounted to EUR 3.2m (EUR 2.6m in Q2/18), in line with our estimates (Evli EUR 3.2m), at a margin of 21.4%.
  • Talenom’s CEO will step as of the 29.7.2019 and will be replaced by current deputy CEO Otto-Pekka Huhtala
  • Talenom’s guidance intact: the net sales growth rate is expected to be greater than in 2018 and the operating profit margin to improve compared to 2018
  • Net investments during the H1/19 amounted to EUR 9.5m (H1/18: 5.5m). The acquisitions of Wakers Consulting and Wasa Tilit and Företagstjänster amounted to EUR 4.2m

Talenom - Solid performance to continue

07.05.2019 | Company report

Talenom has seen success in achieving well above market growth while simultaneously vastly improving profitability, relying on technological advances to automate processes and enhance efficiency. We continue to see room for near-term margin improvement, while the fragmented bookkeeping services market offers continued room for growth.

Focusing on rapid organic growth

Talenom has taken a different approach from the mainly inorganic growth focused competitors in the fragmented bookkeeping services market by successfully focusing on organic growth, having achieved a sales CAGR of 14% during 2015-2018. Growth has been enabled by Talenom’s separation of accountants and sales force, which we expect to continue supported by benefits of digitalization and the market fragmentation. We expect a sales CAGR of 17% during 2018-2021E.

Margin improvements from process efficiency

Talenom has invested heavily in improving the efficiency of its bookkeeping production line. Through centralization of bookkeeping tasks and automation of processes the company has been able to decrease resource needs, resulting in sizeable improvements in margins. We expect further development in 2019 to give a slight boost to margins, with our 2019E operating profit margin estimate at 19.5% (2018: 17.5%).

BUY with a target price of EUR 35.0

We retain our BUY rating and target price of EUR 35.0. Our target price values Talenom at 27.5x 2019E P/E, slightly above our business support services peer group, which we consider warranted due to the highly recurring nature of revenue and stability of the bookkeeping services market. The high valuation is further supported by earnings growth through both sales growth and margin improvements (Evli 2019E sales growth +20.9% and EBIT margin +2 %p).

Talenom - Smooth sailing

24.04.2019 | Company update

Talenom’s Q1 earnings brought no larger surprises. The acquisition of Sweden-based Wakers Consulting and the upgraded guidance greatly reduced two of the in our view main uncertainties and the outlook continues to look solid. We retain our BUY-rating with a TP of EUR 35 (24.5).

No larger surprises in Q1 results

Talenom’s Q1 results did not deviate substantially from our estimates, with revenue at EUR 14.8m (Evli 14.7m) and EBIT at EUR 3.4m (Evli EUR 3.2m). Talenom revised its guidance earlier in Q1 and expects net sales growth in 2019 to increase (prev. remain at a similar pace) compared to 2018 (18.0%) and the operating profit margin to improve (prev. improve slightly) (2018: 17.5%). The hidden gem in our view is the profitability guidance upgrade, as the improvement is expected to stem from development of the accounting production line during H2/19, which we expect to support margin improvement in 2020.

Viewing expansion with caution

Talenom acquired Wakers Consulting during Q1, opening up its first operations outside Finland. The characteristics of the acquired firm in our view proves to show a continued healthy sense of risk aversity, as by size Wakers Consulting is not far from what we would consider a minimum for soundly being able to implement the intended organically driven growth strategy. Management comments on expansion plans imply limited investment needs and erases the in our view biggest uncertainties related to the expansion.

BUY with a target price of EUR 35 (24.5) per share

We have pre-Q1 been cautious to margin improvement potential, which now looks probable also in 2020 through accounting line development during H2/19. Although share price inclines have stretched valuation, with the lower expansion and margin improvement uncertainty we are prepared to accept higher multiples and value Talenom at 27.5x and 22.1x 2019E and 2020E P/E respectively, for a TP of EUR 35 (24.5), reiterating our BUY-rating.

Talenom - Minor earnings beat

23.04.2019 | Earnings Flash

Talenom’s first quarter results were quite in line with our expectations. Net sales amounted to EUR 14.8m (EUR 14.7m Evli) while the operating profit was slightly above our estimates, at EUR 3.4m (EUR 3.2m Evli). The guidance was revised already earlier during Q1 and Talenom expects net sales growth to be greater than in 2018 and the operating profit margin to improve compared to 2018.

  • Talenom’s net sales in Q1 amounted to EUR 14.8m (EUR 12.7m in Q1/18), in line with our estimates (Evli EUR 14.7m). Q1 revenue growth was at 16.1% y/y.
  • The operating profit in Q1 was EUR 3.4m (EUR 2.6m in Q1/18), above our estimates (Evli EUR 3.2m), at a margin of 23.3%.
  • Talenom revised its guidance after the acquisition of Wakers Consulting during Q1, now expecting the net sales growth rate to be greater than (prev. same rate) in 2018 and the operating profit margin to improve (prev. improve slightly) compared to 2018
  • Net investments during Q1 increased to EUR 10.5m due to adoption of IFRS 16, with the adjusted net investments (excl. IFRS 16) at EUR 2.3m compared to 3.3m in Q1/18.

Talenom - Upgrade to BUY

05.02.2019 | Company update

Talenom’s Q4 results were quite in line with our estimates, with net sales and operating profit at EUR 12.5m and EUR 1.5m respectively (Evli EUR 12.6m/EUR 1.3m). Talenom’s guidance exceeded our expectations, with net sales growth expected to remain at 2018 levels (18.0%) and the operating profit margin to increase slightly. We upgrade to BUY (HOLD) with an ex-div TP of EUR 24.5 (19.2)

Upbeat guidance

Talenom’s Q4 results were quite in line with our estimates, with revenue at EUR 12.5m (Evli 12.6m) and EBIT at EUR 1.5m (Evli EUR 1.3m). The dividend proposal is EUR 0.55 per share (Evli EUR 0.50). Talenom’s guidance for 2019 is for net sales growth to remain at a similar pace to 2018 (18.0%) and the operating profit margin to improve slightly (2018: 17.5%), exceeding our expectations of slightly slower sales growth and flattish operating margin development.

Franchising network expansion supporting growth

In absolute figures, net sales growth is mainly expected from new bookkeeping customers. Talenom signed a large number of new franchising contracts during the latter half of 2018, which is expected to increase inflow of new customers during 2019. Growth in other businesses is expected to continue to be rapid, in our view driven largely by staffing services. We expect profitability improvements from further increases in the efficiency of bookkeeping services. We have raised our 2019E and 2020E net sales growth and operating profit estimates by 3%pts/15% and 5%pts/21% respectively. Our 2019E net sales and operating profit estimates are at EUR 57.5m and EUR 10.6m respectively.

BUY (HOLD) with an ex-div target price of EUR 24.5 (19.2)

Talenom trades at a 2019E P/E of 19.8x. We have previously viewed P/E levels of around 20x as reasonable but with the growth expected to remain strong and operating profit margins to increase we justify slightly higher valuation levels. We value Talenom at 21x 2019E P/E for an ex-div target price of EUR 24.5 (19.2) and upgrade to BUY (HOLD).

Talenom - Guiding continued strong growth

04.02.2019 | Earnings Flash

Talenom’s fourth quarter results were quite in line with our expectations. Net sales amounted to EUR 12.5m (EUR 12.6m Evli) while the operating profit beat our estimates slightly, at EUR 1.5m (EUR 1.3m Evli). The dividend proposal for 2018 is EUR 0.55 per share (EUR 0.50 Evli). Talenom expects net sales growth to continue at a similar pace as in 2018 (18.0%) and the operating profit margin to improve slightly compared to 2018.

  • Net sales in Q4 were EUR 12.5m (EUR 10.7m in Q4/17), in line with our estimates (Evli EUR 12.6m). Growth in Q4 amounted to 16.5% y/y.
  • The revenue from additional services in Q4 amounted to EUR 3.4m, with a growth of 62.8%.
  • Operating profit in Q4 was EUR 1.5m (EUR 0.9m in Q4/17), above our estimates (Evli EUR 1.3m), at a margin of 11.8 %. Talenom had pre-Q4 guided 2018 operating profit to be in the range of EUR 8.2-8.7m, with actual 2018 figures at EUR 8.5m
  • Dividend proposal: Talenom proposes a dividend of EUR 0.55 per share (Evli EUR 0.5).
  • Guidance for 2019: Talenom expects net sales growth to continue at a similar pace as in 2018 (18.0%) and the operating profit margin to improve slightly compared to 2018.
  • Net investments during 2018 amounted to EUR 9.5m compared to EUR 7.4m in 2017.

Talenom - Issued positive profit warning

13.12.2018 | Company update

Talenom raised its guidance for FY2018 EBIT, expecting EBIT to be in the range of EUR 8.2-8.7m. The raised guidance is mainly due to increased operational efficiency through technological improvements and to our understanding also due to some postponement of investments in the company’s internationalization plans. We retain our HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 19.2 (18.5).

Guidance for 2018 EBIT raised

Talenom raised its guidance for FY2018 EBIT, expecting EBIT to be in the range of EUR 8.2-8.7m (prev. EUR 7.4-8.0m). The sales guidance remains intact, with sales growth expected to clearly exceed previous year levels. The improved profitability outlook is mainly due to increased operational efficiency through technological improvements. To our understanding some investments relating to the company’s internationalization plans were postponed, which we expect in part to have contributed to the raised guidance. Our revised 2018 EBIT estimate is at EUR 8.4m.

Remain cautious to margin improvement

We continue to remain cautious to margin improvement in the near term. Talenom still has room to improve margins through enhanced operational efficiency. We continue to expect Talenom to establish a presence outside Finland next year, most likely in Sweden, which would put some pressure on margins through up-front personnel costs.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 19.2 (18.5)

We retain our HOLD rating with a target price of EUR 19.2(18.5). On our estimates and target price Talenom trades at a target P/E and EV/EBIT for 2019E of 19.4x and 16.3x, levels that we have previously consider reasonable.

Talenom - Solid quarter, investments ahead

23.10.2018 | Company update

Talenom’s Q3 profitability beat expectations. Based on Jan-Sep profitability development potential for guidance beat is strong but investments in Q4 are expected to affect profitability. We anticipate a further impact during early 2019 and expect slower EPS growth. Continued increases in new customers support continued robust sales growth. Our 2019E estimates do not give significant support for valuation increases and we retain our HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 18.5 (18) per share.

Solid earnings, investments to impact from Q4

Talenom’s Q3 results beat profitability expectations, with EBIT at EUR 1.9m vs. EUR 1.0m Evli, improving some 136 % y/y. Sales were in line with expectations, at EUR 11.1m, growing 19.8 % y/y. With Jan-Sep EBIT at EUR 7.1m, the FY 2018 guidance of EUR 7.4-8.0m appears conservative, but investments into the additional services are expected to impact in Q4. We anticipate the investments to continue to show during early 2019. We expect profitability to remain at solid levels but with slower EPS growth, with our 2018E and 2019E EPS growth estimates at 55 % and 6 % respectively.

No signs of larger sales growth slow down

We expect sales growth to remain good, supported by growth in new customers and pick-up in the sales of additional services, mainly in staff leasing. We have mainly made minor estimates adjustments post-Q3 but increase our 2019E sales growth estimates by 2 percentage points. We also raise our DPS estimates, with our FY 2018E estimate at EUR 0.45. Our 2018E sales and EBIT estimates are at EUR 49m and EUR 7.9m respectively.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 18.5 (18)

We retain our HOLD rating with a target price of EUR 18.5 (18). On our estimates and target price Talenom’s 2019E target P/E and EV/EBIT are at 20.5x and 17.3x respectively and do not give support for significant valuation increases.

Talenom - Clear earnings beat

22.10.2018 | Earnings Flash

Talenom earnings were clearly better than expected. Net sales in Q3 were in line with our estimates, at EUR 11.1m (EUR 10.9m/11.0m Evli/cons.). Profitability beat both our and consensus estimates, with EBITDA at EUR 3.1m compared to EUR 2.2m/2.3m Evli/cons.

  • Talenom’s net sales in Q3 amounted to EUR 11.1m, compared to EUR 10.9m/11.0m Evli/cons. Sales growth amounted to 19.8 % y/y.
  • The revenue from additional services during Jan-Sep 18 amounted to EUR 2.4m, with growth of 66 % to the comparison period.
  • EBITDA in Q3 was EUR 3.1m compared to EUR 2.2m/2.3m Evli/cons. EBITDA improved 59 % y/y. The EBITDA-margin in Q3 was 27 %.
  • EBIT in Q3 was EUR 1.9m compared to EUR 1.0m/1.1m Evli/cons. The EBIT-margin in Q3 was 16.6 %.
  • Net investments in Q3 were EUR 1.6m compared to EUR 1.6m in Q3/17.
  • Talenom’s guidance was kept intact, expecting sales to grow clearly faster than in 2017 (12.1 %) and the EBIT to be between EUR 7.4-8.0m.

Talenom company presentation 26082019

Talenom - Company presentation

26.08.2019
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ERP has signed an agreement with the issuer of the financial instruments mentioned in the recommendation, which includes production of research reports. This assignment has a limited economic and financial impact on ERP and/or Evli. Under the assignment ERP performs services including, but not limited to, arranging investor meetings or –events, investor relations communication advisory and production of research material. ERP or another company within the Evli Group does not have an agreement with the company to perform market making or liquidity providing services. For the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interests with respect to this report, there is an information barrier (Chinese wall) between Investment Research and Corporate Finance units concerning unpublished investment banking services to the company. The remuneration of the analyst(s) is not tied directly or indirectly to investment banking transactions or other services performed by Evli Bank Plc or any company within Evli Group.

This report is provided and intended for informational purposes only and may not be used or considered under any circumstances as an offer to sell or buy any securities or as advice to trade any securities.

This report is based on sources ERP considers to be correct and reliable. The sources include information providers Reuters and Bloomberg, stock-exchange releases from the companies and other company news, Statistics Finland and articles in newspapers and magazines. However, ERP does not guarantee the materialization, correctness, accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions, estimates or forecasts expressed or implied in the report. In addition, circumstantial changes may have an influence on opinions and estimates presented in this report. The opinions and estimates presented are valid at the moment of their publication and they can be changed without a separate announcement. Neither ERP nor any company within the Evli Group are responsible for amending, correcting or updating any information, opinions or estimates contained in this report. Neither ERP nor any company within the Evli Group will compensate any direct or consequential loss caused by or derived from the use of the information represented in this publication.

All information published in this report is for the original recipient’s private and internal use only. ERP reserves all rights to the report. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature, without the written permission of ERP.

This report or its copy may not be published or distributed in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore or South Africa. The publication or distribution of this report in certain other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this report comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions.

Evli Bank Plc is not registered as a broker-dealer with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), and it and its analysts are not subject to SEC rules on securities analysts’ certification as to the currency of their views reflected in the research report. Evli Bank is not a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”). It and its securities analysts are not subject to FINRA’s rules on Communications with the Public and Research Analysts and Research Reports and the attendant requirements for fairness, balance and disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. This research report is only being offered in U.S. by Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC (Auerbach Grayson) to Major U.S. Institutional Investors and is not available to, and should not be used by, any U.S. person or entity that is not a Major U.S. Institutional Investor. Auerbach Grayson is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the FINRA. U.S. entities seeking more information about any of the issuers or securities discussed in this report should contact Auerbach Grayson. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements.

ERP is not a supervised entity but its parent company Evli Bank Plc is supervised by the Finnish Financial Supervision Authority.

Talenom company presentation 26082019

Video presentation

Company Facts

Guidance

Net sales for 2020 are expected to amount to EUR 64-68m and operating profit to EUR 12-14m.

Share price (EUR)


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