Next Games |

Third-party IP focused mobile games developer and publisher

| Finland

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Financial overview

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Next Games - Awaiting a launch of BRN

04.11.2019 | Company update

Next Games Q3 results were below our estimates, with revenue of EUR 7.8 (Evli 8.7m) and EBIT at EUR -2.1m (Evli -1.6m). The number of active users in live games continued to decline but monetization figures remained on good levels and Next Games remained on target monthly fixed cost levels. The targeted growth in 2019 is looking more at risk with little news on the BRN launch. We retain our HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 0.9 (1.0).

Decline in active users impacted revenue and profitability

Next Games Q3 results fell short of our expectations. Revenue amounted to EUR 7.8m (Evli 8.7m). Revenue was affected by a continuing declining trend of the number of active users in both NML and Our World, although monetization figures continued to be on a good level. EBIT was as a result of the lower than estimated revenue below our estimates, at EUR -2.1m (Evli -1.6m). Next Games remained on target monthly fixed cost levels in Q3.

2019 growth target at risk

Next Games seeks moderate revenue growth during 2019 compared to 2018 assuming NML and Our World maintain current levels and the plan of launching one game per year remains on schedule. We now estimate a 2.6% revenue growth in 2019. We assume slight overall improvement in revenue of live games in Q4, supported by the post-Q3 NML update and the start of TWD season 10. We continue to assume the launch of Blade Runner Nexus late 2019, although with the already prolonged soft launch period and little update on the game’s situation in Q3, the risk of a delay in launch to 2020 remains high. Comments on Our World do not suggest any notable upscaling in 2019.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 0.9 (1.0)

We have made slight revisions to our estimates post-Q3 and have lowered our 2019-2020 EBIT-margin estimates by some 3-4pp respectively following lowered gross bookings estimates. We adjust our TP to EUR 0.9 (1.0) and retain our HOLD-rating.

Next Games - Results below expectations

01.11.2019 | Earnings Flash

Next Games's net sales in Q3 amounted to EUR 7.8m, below our estimates and in line with consensus (EUR 8.7m/8.1m Evli/cons.). EBIT amounted to EUR -2.1m, below our and consensus estimates (EUR -1.6m/-1.1m Evli/cons.).

  • Net sales in Q3 were EUR 7.8m (EUR 13.4m in Q3/18), below our estimates and in line with consensus estimates (EUR 8.7m/8.1m Evli/Cons.). Growth in Q3 amounted to -41.8 % y/y. Compared to our estimates, revenue was lower than expected as the number of active users in NML and Our World declined compared to Q2, while we had expected flattish development. ARPDAU figures were quite in line with our estimates for both games.
  • Operating profit in Q3 amounted to EUR -2.1m (EUR -10.3m in Q3/18), below our and consensus estimates (EUR -1.6m/-1.1m Evli/cons.), at a margin of -27.1 %. The company’s cost base remained at target levels but the lower revenue compared to our estimates affected profitability.
  • Adj. EBIT amounted to EUR -1.2m (Q3/18: -9.2m), below our estimate of EUR -0.5m.
  • TWD: NML - DAU 163k (Q3/18: 275k), MAU 479k (Q3/18: 800k), ARPDAU EUR 0.21 (Q3/18: 0.24).
  • TWD: OW - DAU 127k (Q3/18: 386k), MAU 529k (Q3/18: 2.1mk), ARPDAU EUR 0.36 (Q3/18: 0.23).
  • The funds received from the rights offering were received post-Q3 and at the 22.10 the company had a cash balance of EUR 10.3m.

Next Games - Final leg of turnaround commencing

01.10.2019 | Company report

Next Games is through the initiated rights offering commencing the final leg of its turnaround project. Future growth initiatives remain of key importance given the declining revenue trend from live games. We expect growth to accelerate during 2020-2021 following new game launches and profitability to improve but remain at weaker levels.

Rights offering to finance growth opportunities

Next Games has faced challenges following the launch of Our World, in which the company invested heavily during launch, having failed to meet expectations and seeing declines in the user base due to technical difficulties. As a result the company initiated a turnaround project in late 2018. Q2/2019 saw the company reach targeted cost savings levels and as such also improved profitability. Following changes to its operating model Next Games now has nine projects or prototypes under development in addition to Blade Runner Nexus in soft launch and the Stranger Things -game in pre-production. The company is now seeking to move to the final leg of its turnaround project by securing financing for growth initiatives through an EUR 8m rights offering.

Growth dependent on new launches in the coming years

Having seen a declining trend in gross bookings in its two live games, growth in the coming years is dependent on successful new games launches, with Next Games target to launch at least one new game per year. We expect sales growth to accelerate in 2020 with the expected launch of Blade Runner Nexus in late 2019 and the Stranger Things -game in 2020. The new game launches are expected to impact on profitability, and we expect the EBIT-margin to remain negative until 2021.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.0 (1.5)

We adjust our target price to EUR 1.0 (1.5) following the expected dilution from the rights offering, with our minor estimates revisions not having a significant impact. Valuation still quite justifiably emphasizes near-term uncertainties and we consider current valuation levels reasonable.

Next Games - Welcome turnaround progress

29.07.2019 | Company update

Next Games’ profitability saw improvement during Q2, with the adj. EBIT rising to EUR -0.5m (Q2/18: -2.0m). Revenue grew 65% y/y to EUR 9.4m but was below our estimates mainly due to a lower than expected DAU for Our World. Development of the financial situation saw positive signs, but game launch financing still remains a concern.

Earnings improvement and mixed Our World progress

Next Games reported decent Q2 results, with EBIT still in the red, at EUR -1.1m, but seeing improvements and in line with our estimates (Evli EUR -1.0m). The adj. EBIT was slightly below our estimates, at EUR -0.5m (Evli 0.1m). Revenue saw growth of 65% y/y to EUR 9.4m, below our estimates (Evli 10.4m) mainly due to a lower than expected DAU for Our World. Q2 did however see the game’s ARPDAU improve to a commendable EUR 0.34 (from IAP’s). Retention issues, however, led to marketing investment levels for the game rising to above planned levels.

Financial situation progress but concerns remain

We have made some adjustments to our estimates, mainly due to having revised our launch timetable estimate for Blade Runner Nexus from Q3/2019 to Q4/2019. Our estimates also include a minor adjustment for marketing revenue from Our World, which based on figures posted in Q2 shows promising revenue potential. We expect revenue in 2019 to grow 21% to EUR 42.5m (prev. 47.8m), while expecting profitability to remain negative, with an adj. EBIT of EUR -3.0m (prev. EUR -0.5m). A key near-term concern remains the launch of Blade Runner and financing of any more substantial marketing investments that are to be expected in conjunction with the launch. A positive sign for the financial situation was the stabilization of the cash balance and a renewed credit limit guarantee.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.50

Next Games turnaround project has seen good progress and earnings have seen improvements compared to the near past. With the uncertainty relating to financing of upcoming game launches justifying valuation upside remains a challenge and we retain our HOLD-rating and target price of EUR 1.50.

Next Games - Healthy earnings improvement

26.07.2019 | Earnings Flash

Next Games' net sales in Q2 amounted to EUR 9.4m, below our estimates (Evli EUR 10.4m). EBIT amounted to EUR -1.1m, in line with our estimates (Evli EUR -1.0m) and the adj. EBIT to EUR -0.5m (Evli EUR 0.1m). TWD: OW boasted an impressive ARPDAU of EUR 0.34 (from IAP’s) during the quarter, while challenges with retention led to higher than planned marketing investments levels.

  • Net sales in Q2 were EUR 9.4m (EUR 5.7m in Q2/18), below our estimates (Evli EUR 10.4m). Growth in Q2 amounted to 65 % y/y.
  • Operating profit in Q2 amounted to EUR -1.1m (EUR -2.4m in Q2/18), in line with our estimates (Evli EUR -1m), while adj. EBIT amounted to EUR -0.5m (Evli EUR 0.1m). Monthly fixed costs in Q2 amounted to EUR 1.2m following successful implementation of the savings program (co’s target EUR 1.1-1.2m).
  • DAU during Q2/19 was 350k (Q2/18: 306k). MAU was 1.16m (Q2/18: 0.98m). ARPDAU was EUR 0.28 in Q2/19 (Q2/18: EUR 0.2).
  • TWD: NML - DAU 190k (Q2/18: 287k), MAU 540k (Q2/18: 884k), ARPDAU EUR 0.22 (Q2/18: 0.21).
  • TWD: OW - DAU 155k, MAU 602k, ARPDAU EUR 0.34 (from IAP’s).
  • TWD: OW boasted an impressive ARPDAU of EUR 0.34 (from IAP’s) during the quarter, but challenges with player retention led to marketing investments being at a higher level than planned.
  • With the new operating model, the company now has nine new concepts or prototypes in development.
  • The company’s cash balance stood at EUR 4.7m at the end of the quarter compared to EUR 4.8m at the end of the first quarter of 2019.

Next Games - Making headway

29.04.2019 | Company update

Next Games Q1 EBIT and adjusted operating result amounted to EUR -2.4m and -1.3m respectively, while revenue grew 104% y/y to EUR 9.8m. The company’s cost savings program started to show, and further notable progress is expected in Q2. We retain our HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 1.5

Positive TWD: Our World signs

Next Games’ Q1 results saw profitability remaining in the red, with EBIT at EUR -2.4 (Evli -2.1m) and the adjusted operating result at EUR -1.3m. Q1 revenue grew 104% y/y to EUR 9.8m. TWD: No Man’s Land continued on a steady pace while implementation of new sales strategies in TWD: Our World saw the games ARPDAU and daily conversion rates improve towards the end of the quarter and reached an ARPDAU of EUR 0.31 in March (Q1: EUR 0.26). Management comments point towards a prolonged soft launch period for Blade Runner Nexus due to the nature of the game mechanics. Our estimates assume launch during Q3/2019.

Cost savings starting to show

Next Games’ expects to achieve annual cost savings in fixed costs of approximately EUR 6.5m and monthly fixed costs excluding game marketing investments to amount to EUR 1.1-1.2m during 2019 after achieving the targeted cost savings. As the held consultation proceedings still affected Q1 results, a reduction in the cost base is expected to be seen in Q2. On our revised estimates we expect an EBIT and adjusted operating result of EUR -4.8m and EUR -0.5m respectively in 2019. Actions taken to stabilize the operational cash flow saw the company’s cash position start to stabilize during the quarter.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.5

Next Games has made progress in scaling down its cost base and we expect further progress in Q2. A major boost in revenue would be necessary for further improving profitability which despite positive signs from Our World and the expected Launch of Blade Runner Nexus still seems challenging in the near-term. we retain our HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 1.5

Next Games - Revenue miss, EBIT negative as expected

26.04.2019 | Earnings Flash

Next Games Q1 revenue and EBIT amounted to EUR 9.8m (Evli EUR 12.0m) and EUR -2.4m (Evli EUR -2.1m) respectively. Next Games expects to achieve annual savings of approx. EUR 6.5m from its cost savings program. The company’s cash position was at EUR 4.8m at the end of the quarter.

  • Next Games’ revenue in Q1 amounted to EUR 9.8m, below our estimates of EUR 12.0m. Revenue growth y/y on was 104%.
  • EBIT in Q1 amounted to EUR -2.4m, slightly below our estimate of EUR -2.1m. The adjusted operating profit amounted to EUR -1.3m. As a result of the company’s cost savings program, annual savings of approx. EUR 6.5m compared to H2/18 averages are to be achieved.
  • TWD: No man’s land: DAU during Q1 was 225k (Q4/18: 253k). MAU during Q1 was 669k (Q4/18: 728k). ARPDAU was EUR 0.22 during Q1 (Q4/18: 0.25).
  • TWD: Our world: DAU during Q1 was 211k (Q4/18: 223k). MAU during Q1 was 982k (Q4/18: 759k). ARPDAU was EUR 0.26 during Q1 (Q4/18: 0.28).
  • The company’s cash position at the end of the quarter amounted to EUR 4.8m and has according to the company began to stabilize.
  • Next Games expects to get at least two games into testing phase during 2020.

Next Games - Shroud of uncertainty yet to lift

18.02.2019 | Company update

Next Games’ had pre-announced Q4 revenue and EBIT of EUR 11.3m and EUR -1.6m and the most significant news was the discontinuation of a games project that had proceeded to production. We have lowered our 2019 and 2020 revenue estimates by 15 % and 21 % respectively. We retain our HOLD rating with a target price of EUR 1.5 (2.0)

One project discontinued, another started

Next Games revenue and EBIT in Q4 amounted to EUR 11.3m and EUR -1.6m. Profits improved significantly from the Q3 operating loss of EUR 10.3m, that was burdened by TWD: Our World marketing cost, but remained negative due to product development costs. Next Games announced that the game project with Universal Games and Digital Platforms has been discontinued. The project had proceeded to production and was after Blade Runner: Nexus the game furthest in the pipeline. Next Games started a new game project, that currently does not have an external IP attached to it, focusing on a new game concept.

2019/2020 revenue estimates lowered by 15%/21%

We have lowered our 2019 and 2020 revenue estimates by 15 % and 21 % respectively due to the discontinued game project and lowered Our World estimates. Although ARPDAU metrics in particular improved favourably during Q4 (both NML and OW), we have yet to see signs of significant growth in OW active users, which would be much needed for sales and profitability improvement. The new games pipeline still remains decent, with two projects tied to a third-party IP along with the new game concept project in concepting and Blade Runner: Nexus in soft launch. We expect profitability in 2019 to improve due to the savings program but to remain negative, with our estimate at EUR -5.3m.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.5 (2.0)

The near-term uncertainty in our view remains high due to the estimated negative profitability in 2019 and Next Games’ decreased cash position. We retain our HOLD rating with a target price of EUR 1.5 (2.0).

Next Games - Game project discontinued

15.02.2019 | Earnings Flash

Next Games Q4 revenue and EBIT amounted to EUR 11.3m and EUR -1.6m respectively (pre-announced). Next Games announced the termination of collaboration on the game project with Universal Games and Digital Platforms. The company concluded consultation proceedings.

  • Next Games’ revenue during H2 amounted to EUR 24.8m (pre-announced). Revenue growth y/y on was 90 %. Revenue in Q4 amounted to EUR 11.3m
  • EBIT in H2 amounted to EUR -12.0m. Next Games pre-announced H2 figures (FAS). Next Games has adopted IFRS reporting in its 2018 financial statements bulletin. EBIT in Q4 amounted to EUR -1.6m.
  • TWD: No man’s land: DAU during Q4 was 253k (Q3/18: 275k). MAU during Q4 was 728k (Q3/18: 800k). ARPDAU was EUR 0.25 during Q4 (Q3/18: 0.24).
  • TWD: Our world: DAU during Q4 was 223k (Q3/18: 386k). MAU during Q4 was 759k (Q3/18: 2.1m). ARPDAU was EUR 0.28 during Q4 (Q3/18: 0.25).
  • Next Games and Universal Games and Digital Platforms have agreed to terminating their collaboration on the game project that had proceeded to production.
  • The company concluded consultation proceedings and the company’s headcount will decline to 117 from 143.
  • The company initiated a new project that does not have an external IP attached to it at the moment.

Next Games - Upbeat Q4 figures, initiating savings program

11.01.2019 | Company update

Next Games released preliminary Q4 figures and announced an intention to streamline operations, expecting annual cost savings in the range of EUR 4-8m. Next Games is still reviewing financing options but no update on the situation was given with the releases. Financing remains a concern but with a stronger than expected cash position we upgrade to HOLD (SELL) with a target price of EUR 2.0 (1.8).

Q4 losses smaller than anticipated

Next Games announced preliminary Q4 figures. Revenue amounted to EUR 11.3m (Evli EUR 12.2m) while EBITDA amounted to EUR -1.3m (Evli -3.6m). The gross margin improved more than we had expected, at 37% in Q4 (-11% in Q3). User acquisition and marketing costs relating to Our World have normalized, which helped boost the gross margin. The company’s cash position at the end of Q4 was EUR 7.3m.

Seeking to streamline operations

Company management has been authorized to initiate a program to review the company’s cost structure, including consultation proceedings covering the entire organization. The company estimates annual cost savings in the range of EUR 4-8m during the full year 2019. Next Games is further still looking into alternatives to strengthen its financial position.

HOLD (SELL) with a target price of EUR 2.0 (1.8)

We have revised our estimates, with our 2019E sales estimate lowered to EUR 67.2m (prev. 73m) due to expected lower Our World revenue and EBIT estimate raised to EUR -5.7m, to account for the cost savings program and lower than expected UA costs. Although the financing situation remains a concern, we view the situation as less dire than previously anticipated. We expect the cost savings program to further alleviate the financing situation but will likely have some impact on new game launches. We upgrade to HOLD with a target price of EUR 2.0 (1.8).

Next Games - Downgrade to SELL

06.11.2018 | Company update

Next Games Q3 results were weak and highlighted the volatility in earnings stability when developing and launching new games. The company’s cash assets have taken a big dent and with the existing games not being able to finance the development of new games Next Games is looking into other funding options. With the financing situation overshadowing the long-term potential we downgrade to SELL with a target price of EUR 1.8 (8.5).

Our World launch burdened results

Next Games Q3 results were weak, with EBIT at EUR -10.7m. Profitability was significantly affected by user acquisition and marketing costs relating to Our World, released in mid-July, along with development costs. Revenue in Q3 was EUR 13.4m (NML 5.6m, Our World 7.8m). Our World saw a good start after release, but a growing number of active users lead to technical issues and a weaker second half of the quarter. The technical issues have decreased, and key metrics saw stabilization towards the end of the quarter. A new license agreement was signed during the quarter and Next Games now has four games in development.

Financial situation in focus

With the larger than anticipated loss in Q3, impacted by the weaker sales of Our World, Next Games is looking into options for securing its financing. The company’s cash balance at the end of the quarter was EUR 8.8m along with an unused credit limit of EUR 5m. Next Games did not comment further on the types of financing sought, but we note that the effect of dilution in the case of a share emission at current share prices could be significant.

SELL (BUY) with a target price of EUR 1.8 (8.5)

At the current development pace and with only two live games the need for financing in the near future appears evident. We now expect clearly deeper losses and we emphasize the financing risk. We downgrade to SELL (BUY) with a TP of EUR 1.8 (8.5).

Next Games - Earnings flash - EBIT deep in the red

02.11.2018 | Earnings Flash

Next Games’ Q3 results fell significantly off expectations, with EBITDA at EUR -10m (EUR -2.0m Evli/cons.), driven by investments into the Our World -game. Revenue beat expectations, at EUR 13.4m (EUR 11.5m Evli/cons.). Next Games is considering options to strengthen its financial status.

  • Next Games’ revenue in the second quarter came in at EUR 13.4m (EUR 11.5m Evli&cons). Revenue growth y/y on was 110 %. Q3 was the first quarter with Our World significantly contributing to revenue.
  • EBITDA in Q3 was as expected negative, but the magnitude of the loss was significantly larger than our and consensus expectation, at EUR -10.0m and EBIT EUR –10.7m. Development costs during Q3 amounted to EUR 2.0m. The No Man’s Land -game remained profitable, with EBITDA of EUR 1.0m, while the large negative results were mainly affected by investments into promoting the Our World -game, with the game’s EBITDA at EUR -7.7m. According to management both games are currently operated at positive EBITDA but the combined revenue is not enough to cover games in development.
  • The company is considering options to strengthening its financial status as a part of its risk-management plan.
  • The number of employees grew to 143.
  • DAU during Q3 was 669k compared to Q3/17 figures of 371k. MAU was 3.2m compared to 1.14m during Q3/17. ARPDAU (EUR) was 0.26 compared to 0.21 during Q3/17. Key metrics saw significant growth due to the launch of the Our World -game.
  • Next Games announced that it has signed a new license agreement with a leading partner in the entertainment industry.

Next Games Q319 interview with Teemu Huuhtanen

Next Games - Q3/19 video interview with CEO Teemu Huuhtanen

01.11.2019
Next Games company presentation 29082019

Next Games - Company presentation

29.08.2019

Annual and sustainability reports

27.02.2019

Annual report 2018

30.01.2018

Annual report 2017

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Next Games company presentation 29082019

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