Loihde has strong long-term growth prospects and with scalability starting to kick in, we see the company as quite interesting as an investment. We initiate the coverage of Loihde with a HOLD rating and target price of EUR 16.0.
Security and digital IT services from under the same roof
The company is currently under a large turnaround after massive organizational changes made during 2017-2021. The current business consists of two separate but complementary businesses of security and IT services. EBITDA has already seen positive development during 2021-22, but the company has still work to be done until reaching its target of a 10% EBITDA margin. We see the growth prospects as good with strong underlying megatrends supporting the market growth. In addition, Loihde has lots of up- and cross-sales opportunities within the company which consists of multiple subsidiaries which originally have been formed from acquired companies.
Comprehensive offering as a competitive factor
In our view, the company stands out from its competitors with its unique offering in which the company can utilize industry-overlapping capabilities to deliver next-gen solutions. For example, the company has delivered to Finnish Customs physical security surveillance service which is highly enforced by intelligence. Moreover, with the One Security concept, the company provides both physical and digital security services in which the data collected from physical devices is enriched by analytics to provide either stronger security or to support business decisions.
Valuation not challenging, but further evidence is needed
We view the current valuation of Loihde as not challenging, but with a sustainable profitability level still unproven, we justify multiples below the peer group median. We value Loihde with 23E EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT multiples of 6.4x and 9.6x respectively. The near future includes some uncertainty with slowing demand for DiDe. We initiate the coverage of Loihde with a HOLD rating and TP of EUR 16.0.
|Shareholders||Date||% of shares||% of votes|
These research reports have been prepared by Evli Research Partners Plc (“ERP” or “Evli Research”). ERP is a subsidiary of Evli Plc.
None of the analysts contributing to this report, persons under their guardianship or corporations under their control have a position in the shares of the company or related securities. The date and time for any price of financial instruments mentioned in the recommendation refer to the previous trading day’s closing price(s) unless otherwise stated in the report. Each analyst responsible for the content of this report assures that the expressed views accurately reflect the personal views of each analyst on the covered companies and securities. Each analyst assures that (s)he has not been, nor are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Companies in the Evli Group, affiliates or staff of companies in the Evli Group, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives) of any company mentioned in the publication or report. Neither ERP nor any company within the Evli Group have managed or co-managed a public offering of the company’s securities during the last 12 months prior to, received compensation for investment banking services from the company during the last 12 months prior to the publication of the research report.
ERP has signed an agreement with the issuer of the financial instruments mentioned in the recommendation, which includes production of research reports. This assignment has a limited economic and financial impact on ERP and/or Evli. Under the assignment ERP performs services including, but not limited to, arranging investor meetings or –events, investor relations communication advisory and production of research material. ERP or another company within the Evli Group does not have an agreement with the company to perform market making or liquidity providing services. For the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interests with respect to this report, there is an information barrier (Chinese wall) between Investment Research and Corporate Finance units concerning unpublished investment banking services to the company. The remuneration of the analyst(s) is not tied directly or indirectly to investment banking transactions or other services performed by Evli Plc or any company within Evli Group.
This report is provided and intended for informational purposes only and may not be used or considered under any circumstances as an offer to sell or buy any securities or as advice to trade any securities.
This report is based on sources ERP considers to be correct and reliable. The sources include information providers Reuters and Bloomberg, stock-exchange releases from the companies and other company news, Statistics Finland and articles in newspapers and magazines. However, ERP does not guarantee the materialization, correctness, accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions, estimates or forecasts expressed or implied in the report. In addition, circumstantial changes may have an influence on opinions and estimates presented in this report. The opinions and estimates presented are valid at the moment of their publication and they can be changed without a separate announcement. Neither ERP nor any company within the Evli Group are responsible for amending, correcting or updating any information, opinions or estimates contained in this report. Neither ERP nor any company within the Evli Group will compensate any direct or consequential loss caused by or derived from the use of the information represented in this publication.
All information published in this report is for the original recipient’s private and internal use only. ERP reserves all rights to the report. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature, without the written permission of ERP.
This report or its copy may not be published or distributed in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore or South Africa. The publication or distribution of this report in certain other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this report comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions.
Evli Plc is not registered as a broker-dealer with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), and it and its analysts are not subject to SEC rules on securities analysts’ certification as to the currency of their views reflected in the research report. Evli is not a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”). It and its securities analysts are not subject to FINRA’s rules on Communications with the Public and Research Analysts and Research Reports and the attendant requirements for fairness, balance and disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. This research report is only being offered in U.S. by Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC (Auerbach Grayson) to Major U.S. Institutional Investors and is not available to, and should not be used by, any U.S. person or entity that is not a Major U.S. Institutional Investor. Auerbach Grayson is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the FINRA. U.S. entities seeking more information about any of the issuers or securities discussed in this report should contact Auerbach Grayson. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements.
ERP is not a supervised entity but its parent company Evli Plc is supervised by the Finnish Financial Supervision Authority.
Over 10% net sales growth on average and achieving over 10% adj. EBITDA margin during the strategy period of 2021-24.
For professional investors wishing to discuss the case, please book a complimentary analyst call