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Loihde reported two-folded Q2 figures. Net sales came in strong with 15% growth, despite soft digital development sales. Profitability was weak, which leaves a lot to catch up in H2.
Loihde released Q2 result with strong topline growth. Net sales grew in line with our expectations, with strong SeSo sales, while DiDe was negatively impacted by the soft market. Profitability fell short of our expectations and was weak with market issues. Year-end seems brighter, but uncertainty remains high, especially in DiDe.
Loihde reports its Q2 result on Thursday. While SeSo is expected to drive strong Q2 growth, the current market environment has continued weak and uncertain in DiDe. In addition to the soft utilization rates of DiDe, we expect SeSo’s ERP project to bring additional costs that together limit Q2 and 23E profitability.
Q1 profitability came in soft. While growth is expected going forward, the extent of profitability remains uncertain due to challenges affecting margins. We downgraded our 23E EBIT, but expect earnings growth remaining robust for 2023-25.
Loihde’s Q1 result came in below expectations. While net sales increased by 13%, adj. EBITDA fell below zero due to challenges faced. Guidance intact: double-digit growth and improving profitability.
Loihde reports its Q1 results on Friday, April 28th. We expect the company's Q1 double-digit growth to be strongly supported by its security business. Driven by increased estimates resulting from the acquisition of Hämeen Lukko, we have raised our target price to EUR 16.5 (16.0), while maintaining our rating at HOLD.
Loihde has strong long-term growth prospects and with scalability starting to kick in, we see the company as quite interesting as an investment. We initiate the coverage of Loihde with a HOLD rating and target price of EUR 16.0.
Security and digital IT services from under the same roof
The company is currently under a large turnaround after massive organizational changes made during 2017-2021. The current business consists of two separate but complementary businesses of security and IT services. EBITDA has already seen positive development during 2021-22, but the company has still work to be done until reaching its target of a 10% EBITDA margin. We see the growth prospects as good with strong underlying megatrends supporting the market growth. In addition, Loihde has lots of up- and cross-sales opportunities within the company which consists of multiple subsidiaries which originally have been formed from acquired companies.
Comprehensive offering as a competitive factor
In our view, the company stands out from its competitors with its unique offering in which the company can utilize industry-overlapping capabilities to deliver next-gen solutions. For example, the company has delivered to Finnish Customs physical security surveillance service which is highly enforced by intelligence. Moreover, with the One Security concept, the company provides both physical and digital security services in which the data collected from physical devices is enriched by analytics to provide either stronger security or to support business decisions.
Valuation not challenging, but further evidence is needed
We view the current valuation of Loihde as not challenging, but with a sustainable profitability level still unproven, we justify multiples below the peer group median. We value Loihde with 23E EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT multiples of 6.4x and 9.6x respectively. The near future includes some uncertainty with slowing demand for DiDe. We initiate the coverage of Loihde with a HOLD rating and TP of EUR 16.0.
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Over 10% net sales growth on average and achieving over 10% adj. EBITDA margin during the strategy period of 2021-24.
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Evli Plc is not registered as a broker-dealer with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), and it and its analysts are not subject to SEC rules on securities analysts’ certification as to the currency of their views reflected in the research report. Evli is not a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"). It and its securities analysts are not subject to FINRA’s rules on Communications with the Public and Research Analysts and Research Reports and the attendant requirements for fairness, balance and disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. This research report is only being offered in U.S. by Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC (Auerbach Grayson) to Major U.S. Institutional Investors and is not available to, and should not be used by, any U.S. person or entity that is not a Major U.S. Institutional Investor. Auerbach Grayson is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the FINRA. U.S. entities seeking more information about any of the issuers or securities discussed in this report should contact Auerbach Grayson. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements.