Cibus Nordic |

A diversified daily-goods property portfolio

| Sweden

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Financial overview


Cibus Nordic - Something more to chew over

21.08.2020 | Company update

Cibus’ portfolio remains unaffected by the pandemic and additional acquisitions are imminent despite already busy H1’20. Our TP is now SEK 160 (150) per share, rating BUY.

Certain exceptional transactions burdened Q2 bottom line

Cibus was largely immune to the pandemic (shared certain small Finnish tenants’ troubles to the tune of EUR 0.2m). Property figures were as expected with rental income at EUR 16.4m vs our EUR 16.2m estimate. Property expenses remained in check and so net rental income amounted to EUR 15.1m i.e. same as our estimate. Administration costs were elevated by some EUR 0.5m due to bond transactions as well as the restructuring of Finnish books. The EUR 13.6m in operating income thus fell short of our EUR 14.2m estimate. Net financial costs were driven high, to EUR 5.8m, by a one-off EUR 2.9m item attributable to bond redemption premiums and arrangement fees. Net operating income was thus EUR 7.8m vs our EUR 9.9m estimate.

Both existing portfolio and prospects basically unchanged

The daily-goods property market remains stable and the pandemic hasn’t discernibly altered deal flow. This means Cibus is in a strong position to add to its property mass through smaller portfolio acquisitions and thus scale the current organization. Yields are still attractive as Cibus can buy assets at some 100-150bps pick-up relative to its own book valuation. In addition to the EUR 180m Swedish entry, Cibus is well ahead of its annual EUR 50m acquisition target since Finnish purchases total over EUR 70m YTD. With EUR 85m in cash and long-term financing in place further additions might well happen in H2’20. Cibus is also instituting additional shareholder-friendly effects in the near term, namely the transitioning to monthly dividend payments as well as switching to the Nasdaq Stockholm main list.

We see scope for further valuation rerating

In our opinion some tightening in valuation relative to the wider Nordic property sector is warranted since the pandemic has very limited direct bearing on Cibus. The situation is different for the bulk of commercial real estate e.g. offices. Cibus’ yield spread relative to other listed Nordic entities has indeed tightened a bit recently, however in our view there’s still room to go with Cibus yielding ca. 5% vs some 4% for a typical Nordic portfolio. Our TP is now SEK 160 (150) per share. We retain our BUY rating.

Cibus Nordic - Temporarily elevated expenses

20.08.2020 | Earnings Flash

Cibus’ portfolio continued to perform according to expectations while transactions and financing activities drove central administration expenses and especially net financial costs exceptionally high.

  • Cibus’ Q2 rental income was EUR 16.4m while we estimated EUR 16.2m.
  • Net rental income (i.e. after property expenses) amounted to EUR 15.1m, compared to our EUR 15.1m estimate.
  • Operating income (after central administration expenses) was EUR 13.6m vs our EUR 14.2m estimate.
  • Net operating income (after net financial costs) stood at EUR 7.8m vs our EUR 9.9m estimate.
  • Annual net rental income capacity is now EUR 65.1m (previously EUR 60.6m).
  • The portfolio was valued at EUR 1,124m and thus EPRA NAV amounted to EUR 11.8 (11.6) per share.
  • Net LTV ratio was 60.5% (58.1%).
  • Occupancy rate was measured at 95.2% (94.8%).
  • WAULT remained at 5.5 years at the end of Q2.

Cibus Nordic - Staple and stable

18.05.2020 | Company update

Cibus performed strong. The fundamentals are solid as before, yet wider property valuations are subject to higher uncertainty. We retain our SEK 150 TP and BUY rating.

There’s little reason to expect performance to be impaired

Cibus’ portfolio performed as expected with Q1 rental income at EUR 14.0m vs our EUR 13.9m estimate, while net rental income amounted to EUR 13.0m (vs our EUR 13.0m expectation). We did expect temporarily elevated administration costs due to the Coop acquisition, as the company suggested, and estimated the Q1 figure at EUR 1.1m. The figure came in at EUR 1.5m and thus the EUR 11.5m Q1 operating income missed our EUR 11.9m estimate. Meanwhile we overestimated financial costs (excluding currency losses) since net operating income excluding currency losses was EUR 7.7m, compared to our EUR 7.6m estimate. In terms of earnings capacity, the updated property expenses line is higher than we expected while the administration cost line is slightly lower. We make only small revisions to our estimates.

Cash flow is solid, yet valuation is not immune to macro

In our view Cibus’ figures and comments prove the pandemic will have little impact operationally. While in the big picture retail rents are likely to be under pressure (mainly due to shopping centers) in our opinion there’s no valid reason to expect this will apply to daily-goods stores. Cibus hasn’t noticed changes to deal flow and bank financing prospects. We see the daily-goods property market remaining stable and would not expect distressed sellers to surface in any meaningful numbers. Even though the pandemic will provide strong tailwind for online grocery sales the fact remains that such operations still struggle profit-wise in the Nordics. We expect Cibus will continue to generate robust cash flow as before. We view wider property valuation trends as the main risk for Cibus’ shareholders: uncertainty runs high and it remains to be seen how exactly e.g. telecommuting practices will affect office vacancy rates.

We reiterate our SEK 150 TP and BUY rating

Cibus continues to scan e.g. the Norwegian market, but for now the focus is on Finland and Sweden. The purchased Swedish properties are being converted into Coop stores (Coop purchased them from Netto last year); Cibus says the conversion is progressing well. We retain our SEK 150 TP and BUY rating.

Cibus Nordic - No meaningful surprises

15.05.2020 | Earnings Flash

Cibus Nordic reported Q1 property portfolio performance in line with our estimates, while operating income was slightly below our estimate due to the Coop portfolio acquisition which temporarily elevated central administration expenses.

  • Q1 rental income amounted to EUR 14.0m vs our EUR 13.9m estimate.
  • Accounting for property expenses, net rental income was EUR 13.0m while we expected EUR 13.0m.
  • Subtracting central administration expenses, operating income stood at EUR 11.5m in comparison to our EUR 11.9m estimate. The expenses were higher than we expected due to the Coop portfolio acquisition.
  • After considering net financial costs (including currency losses), net operating income was EUR 6.8m vs our EUR 7.6m expectation. The figure was EUR 7.7m excluding currency losses.
  • Annual net rental income capacity now stands at EUR 60.6m (previously EUR 50.9m).
  • The portfolio was valued at EUR 1,053m, meaning EPRA NAV amounted to EUR 11.6 (11.4) per share.
  • Net LTV ratio was 58.1% (58.7%).
  • Occupancy rate stood at 94.8% (94.7%) at the end of Q1.
  • WAULT was 5.5 years (4.9 years), increasing due to the Coop portfolio acquisition.

Cibus Nordic - Graduating the property ladder

12.05.2020 | Company report

Our updated TP is SEK 150 (155), rating now BUY (HOLD).

Cibus has performed according to expectations

Cibus’ portfolio performance has delivered the promises since the IPO in March 2018. Moreover, the portfolio’s exposure to supermarkets, in our view the preferred daily-goods store type, has increased following a string of acquisitions large and small. The company has also advanced on the organizational side. Cibus is now more independent entity, and Sirius’ partial exit made entry for other institutional investors easier and helped facilitate the Swedish property market expansion earlier this spring.

The Swedish market entry fits the strategy well

Cibus was able to acquire the EUR 180m Coop supermarket portfolio at a yield of close to 6%, which to us was a surprisingly high level, especially considering the portfolio’s quality, 10-year triple-net lease structure as well as Coop’s agreement to invest SEK 3m into each of the 110 stores for rebranding purposes (Coop acquired the stores from Netto last year). We view the portfolio a good base for further expansion in Sweden.

We base our TP on the portfolio’s current CF capacity

Cibus continues to trade at attractive levels relative to other listed Nordic property portfolios since Cibus’ assets are small in the institutional investor context and thus there’s a paucity of buyers as this specific asset class isn’t the most convenient way to deploy large amounts of capital. Single grocery stores can often be purchased at high yields. We’d describe Cibus a vehicle for capitalizing on the yield differential. Since Cibus’ portfolio is well diversified we see there’s scope for fair value gains every time Cibus buys a property. Having said that Cibus isn’t the only Nordic daily-goods property portfolio (although it’s the only publicly traded one) and so we view it prudent to focus on the current portfolio cash flow capacity. We value Cibus’ current cash flow prospects with a yield we see sufficiently below that of the underlying daily-goods property market (to account for diversification benefits) on the one hand, and adequately above that of the wider property market (the vehicular benefits shouldn’t be exaggerated) on the other. Our TP is now SEK 150 (155), rating BUY (HOLD).

Cibus Nordic - A strong base for Swedish expansion

06.03.2020 | Company update

Cibus Nordic enters the Swedish property market with the EUR 180m portfolio acquisition of 111 Coop supermarkets. We view the deal as a fine way to gain more property mass and extend geographical reach in a controlled manner. Our new TP is SEK 155 (150), rating HOLD.

We believe Cibus is an ideal owner for the supermarkets

Cibus acquires a portfolio of 111 properties located in Southern Sweden for EUR 180m. The portfolio of grocery properties belonged to Coop, the second largest grocery retailer in Sweden (19% market share), which had acquired the portfolio last year from Netto. Coop will provide some SEK 3m into each store for rebranding purposes and sign 10-year triple-net lease contracts. In this sense the new Swedish portfolio is even more cost-efficient from Cibus’ point of view. The longer lease contracts will lift Cibus’ WAULT to 5.5 years from 4.9 years. Coop has in total about 800 stores in Sweden; thus the 111 properties mean Cibus’ relationship with Coop can be compared to that with Kesko, considering Cibus’ properties amount to more than 10% of Kesko’s facility sourcing. The properties now acquired are relatively modern (83% were either constructed or renovated during the last 15 years), and are mostly located in residential areas, traffic routes and city centers. The typical property is only some 1,000 sqm in area (compared to old Cibus’ 3,500 sqm), so they can be best described as rather small supermarkets. As Coop is now in the process of rebranding the stores the inventory selection is set to expand from 1,800 items per store to 6,000.

The deal is valued at a yield above that where Cibus trades

The price implies a yield of almost 6%, which is undemanding as Cibus trades only slightly above 5%. Cibus’ net debt LTV ratio stays close to the old almost 60% level. Cibus fully used the mandate to issue 6.22m shares and thus raised EUR 84m new equity via a directed share issue. The EUR 123m new senior bank debt carries a 2% interest; Cibus consequently has some EUR 25m more cash in its balance sheet to make add-on acquisitions in Sweden. Cibus expects the deal to close next week, on Mar 10.

Cibus’ valuation and yield development

Cibus trades at a 100bps wider yield compared to the median NTM EBITDA/EV of a listed Nordic Real Estate company. Cibus managed to issue new equity at a 1.18x P/NAV (or 2.7% below the day’s closing price) to fund the Swedish expansion, which we see as a strong signal that investors view Cibus’ book value as quite conservative. We have updated our estimates; we expect Cibus’ rental income to continue to increase at the rate of inflation, and we estimate annual operating income at more than EUR 10m higher going forward.

The deal adds some EUR 10m in operating income capacity

The deal is good news for Cibus as portfolio diversification further improves. Our TP is SEK 155 (150), remain HOLD.

Cibus Nordic - EUR 200m Swedish entry this year?

28.02.2020 | Company update

Cibus reported an unsurprising portfolio performance for Q4, however administration costs were temporarily elevated due to development efforts. Nordic expansion could well be on the cards this year. We see Cibus’ yield still relatively attractive. Our TP is now SEK 150 (135), rating still HOLD.

The existing portfolio continues to perform well

Cibus’ Q4 rental income, at EUR 13.2m, was close to our EUR 13.3m estimate. There were no surprises in terms of property expenses, as these summed up to EUR 0.6m and thus net rental income was EUR 12.6m, compared to our EUR 12.5m estimate. Cibus’ budgeted admin costs run close to EUR 1.0m per quarter. The admin costs amounted to EUR 2.0m in Q4 due to many one-off considerations. First, the outsourcing contract with Pareto, now terminated, still had an effect. Second, Cibus booked EUR 0.5m in restructuring costs in order to achieve a more efficient legal structure. Cibus also incurred EUR 0.2m due to mapping of Nordic markets beyond Finland. Therefore Cibus’ Q4 operating income missed our estimate by ca. EUR 1.0m. There were no notable changes to key metrics as EPRA NAV (EUR 11.4), LTV ratio (59%), occupancy rate (95%) and WAULT (4.9 years) remained basically unchanged. Cibus also highlighted its active property management successes in certain less-than-metropolitan areas like Nastola and Kajaani by filling local vacancies with tenants such as Lidl and Rusta (a discount store chain).

Authorization could enable a EUR 200m GAV acquisition

The acquisition of three Tokmanni-anchored properties helped lift the portfolio’s annual net rental income capacity by about EUR 1.0m to EUR 50.9m. Last year Cibus managed to achieve its annual EUR 50m acquisition target, however this year a larger transaction might take place as Cibus is authorized to issue up to 6.22m new shares. Cibus is eyeing other Nordic markets beyond Finland. Sweden seems to be the most potential option; the market is, on average, slightly higher priced than Finland, but Cibus believes it can apply its own concept there successfully.

Cibus’ 1.23x P/NAV still offers a 100bps yield pick-up

Cibus’ shares have rerated along with the rest of the Nordic RE market. While Cibus trades at a clear premium relative to GAV/NAV (1.08x/1.23x), the portfolio remains priced at a competitive yield. Our TP is now SEK 150 (135), rating still HOLD.

Cibus Nordic - Portfolio performed as expected

27.02.2020 | Earnings Flash

Cibus Nordic reported property portfolio results in line with our expectations. However, administration costs were higher than we had estimated due to certain group restructuring and development-related costs.

  • Cibus’ Q4 rental income amounted to EUR 13.2m vs our EUR 13.3m estimate.
  • After subtracting property expenses, Q4 net rental income was EUR 12.6m, while we expected EUR 12.5m.
  • When taking central administration expenses into account, operating income was EUR 10.6m, compared to our EUR 11.5m estimate. Administration costs were higher than we anticipated due to non-recurring group restructuring costs totaling ca. EUR 0.5m (to simplify group structure and help facilitate internal funds transfers) as well as EUR 0.2m cost attributable to mapping of Nordic markets.
  • Including net financial costs, net operating income was EUR 7.0m vs our EUR 8.1m expectation.
  • Annual net rental income capacity now stands at EUR 50.9m (previously EUR 49.9m).
  • The portfolio was valued at EUR 875m, translating to an EPRA NAV of EUR 11.4 (11.4) per share.
  • Net debt LTV ratio stood at 58.7% (58.9%).
  • Occupancy rate was 94.7% (94.5%) at the end of Q4.
  • WAULT remained basically unchanged at 4.9 years (5.0 years).

Cibus Nordic - Yield not yet entirely digested

18.11.2019 | Company update

Cibus’ portfolio performed as expected in Q3 as the EUR 12.5m net rental income figure was in line with our estimate. Admin and financial expenses were elevated due to administrative transition as well as IFRS 16 adjustments and other financial costs. We make minor changes to our estimates, retain our SEK 135 TP and HOLD rating.

Admin and financial expenses were temporarily elevated

Cibus’ portfolio developed without surprises during Q3 as the properties generated EUR 13.2m in rental income (vs our EUR 13.3m estimate). Property expenses also were largely as expected, and thus net rental income amounted to EUR 12.5m (we expected EUR 12.4m). Cibus is currently in the process of developing its organization and so transitions administration as well as asset management back to itself. This meant central administration as well as financial costs were temporarily elevated during the quarter, with admin expenses amounting to EUR 1.2m (compared to the normal EUR 0.9-1.0m level), and thus operating income stood at EUR 11.3m (vs our EUR 11.5m estimate). Cibus also made IFRS 16 related adjustments to its reporting, and now records site leasehold fees among its financial expenses, the effect being roughly EUR 0.15m per quarter. Net financial expenses totaled EUR 4.0m in Q3, and Cibus sees the level at around EUR 3.4m going forward.

Q3 was quiet in terms of portfolio development

There were no changes to Cibus’ portfolio during the quarter as the company still holds 139 Finnish properties valued at EUR 862m. Net debt LTV ratio and occupancy rate were basically unchanged at their respective 59% and 95% levels. Average lease-length remains at 5.0 years. Likewise, annual net rental income capacity continues to stand at EUR 49.9m, implying EUR 46.2m operating income potential. Cibus says it expects to list on the Nasdaq Stockholm Main List by Q3’20. Cibus continues to actively monitor the Nordic property market beyond Finland.

Cibus’ portfolio still offers a 100bps yield pick-up

We leave our operative estimates largely intact following the report. We retain our TP of SEK 135 per share, rating HOLD. Cibus’ portfolio net yield, at 5.1%, remains almost 100bps above that of a typical listed Nordic Real Estate portfolio.

Cibus Nordic - Operating profit as expected

15.11.2019 | Earnings Flash

Cibus posted Q3 results largely in line with expectations. Operating income (rental income less property and central administration expenses), at EUR 11.3m, was close to our EUR 11.5m estimate. Larger than expected financial expense items meant profit from property management was a little soft as Cibus is developing its own organization.

  • Q3 rental income amounted to EUR 13.2m vs our EUR 13.3m estimate.
  • Net rental income stood at EUR 12.5m, compared to our EUR 12.4m expectation.
  • Operating income was recorded at EUR 11.3m while we expected EUR 11.5m.
  • Net operating income (profit from property management) was EUR 7.3m, falling short of our EUR 8.5m projection due to higher than expected financial expense items. Cibus is in the process of transitioning administration as well as asset management back to the company from third-parties.
  • Annual net rental income capacity stands at EUR 49.9m (unchanged).
  • The property portfolio is valued at EUR 862m, which translates to an EPRA NAV of EUR 11.4 (previously EUR 11.3) per share.
  • Net debt LTV ratio was 58.9% (previously 59.0%) at the end of Q3.
  • Occupancy rate stood at 94.5% (94.3% in Q2’19).

Cibus Nordic - Still more yield left to bite

02.09.2019 | Company update

Cibus’ Q2 rental income of EUR 12.6m was a little soft (we expected EUR 12.8m) due to a change in tenancy, while EUR 0.3m in accruals also had a negative impact. However, the fundamentals remain as before, strategy is on track and there is further room for yield compression. We update our TP to SEK 135 (125); rating remains HOLD.

Cibus is well ahead of its EUR 50m annual acquisition goal

Cibus completed the acquisition of five properties during the quarter (the total number now stands at 139), meaning Cibus has already acquired EUR 45m worth of properties this year, thus bringing the portfolio gross asset value to EUR 862m. The net debt LTV ratio increased to 59.0% during the quarter, up from the previous 56.7%, however Cibus’ average interest rate on borrowings declined by ca. 30bps, to 2.6%. Adjusted EPRA NAV increased slightly to EUR 11.3 (11.2) per share.

Occupancy temporarily lowish due to a tenancy change

Cibus reported a little soft Q2 net rental income due to a change in tenancy as occupancy rate dropped to 94.3% (has typically been above 95%). Another one-off was a EUR 0.3m accruals charge, and thus net rental income stood at EUR 11.5m vs our EUR 12.0m estimate. The most important forward-looking metric, namely net rental income less central administration costs, increased by EUR 2.0m to EUR 46.2m. We see the current portfolio posting EUR 46.7m next year, which translates to a 5.2% yield.

Cibus continues to grow the portfolio, attracts new investors

So far this year Cibus has announced EUR 45m in Finnish daily-goods property acquisitions, meaning the company is now well ahead of its stated annual EUR 50m investment target for the year. The portfolio is now worth EUR 862m in terms of gross asset value, comprising of 139 properties located around Finland and with a total lettable area of some 500,000 sqm. Central portfolio metrics such as occupancy rate (94.3%), weighted average unexpired lease term (5.0 years) and net debt LTV ratio (59.0%) have remained steady. The tenant mix stays anchored to Kesko (54%) and Tokmanni (28%), with S-Group (7%) and others (11%) making up the rest. During the last twelve months the company has been able to improve its cost of borrowing by around 60bps as the interest-bearing liabilities’ average interest rate now stands at ca. 2.6%.

Cibus has also continued developing its own organization with the help of few recruits, and in the long-term may eventually enter the Swedish property market. Funds managed by Sirius Capital Partners sold three quarters of their stake in May, which we see as a positive development as it widens Cibus’ institutional investor base and so makes it easier to arrange e.g. an equity issue in connection with a major portfolio acquisition.

Cibus trades above GAV and NAV, but yield still attractive

Cibus’ shares have rerated during the last year, now trading at a premium on book value. In early 2019 Cibus was trading at ca. 0.95x EV/GAV and 0.85x P/NAV, whereas the respective multiples now stand at 1.05x and 1.10x. We estimate the corresponding yield compression at 75bps. Meanwhile major Nordic Real Estate companies’ yields have also compressed, and Cibus’ absolute yield spread has stayed largely unchanged at ca. 100bps. The high underlying portfolio yield, as well as the resulting 7% dividend yield (itself a function of the property yield, leverage and dividend payout ratio), means Cibus’ shares have further potential. We update our TP to SEK 135 (125), valuing Cibus at a 1.10x P/NAV multiple (1.05x EV/GAV). Our rating stays HOLD.

Cibus Nordic - Expenses higher than expected

30.08.2019 | Earnings Flash

Cibus’ Q2 rental income stood at EUR 12.6m, in line with expectations. Property expenses were slightly higher than we expected, and thus net rental income, at EUR 11.5m, was less than our EUR 12.0m estimate. Central operating metrics remained largely unchanged.

  • Q2 rental income amounted to EUR 12.6m vs our EUR 12.8m estimate.
  • Net rental income was EUR 11.5m, whereas we expected EUR 12.0m. Property expenses were some EUR 300k higher than we expected. Annual net rental income capacity now stands EUR 49.9m from Q3 onwards (Cibus previously estimated the figure at EUR 49.3m).
  • Operating income (net rental income minus central administration costs) stood at EUR 10.5m vs our EUR 11.0m projection.
  • The portfolio’s GAV amounted to EUR 862m (a total of 139 properties), while EPRA NAV rose to EUR 11.3 (previously EUR 11.2) per share.
  • Net debt LTV ratio rose to 59.0% (56.7% in Q1’19).
  • Occupancy rate was 94.3% (95.1% in Q1’19).

Cibus Nordic - Property income as expected

16.05.2019 | Company update

Cibus’ Q1 developed without surprises as NOI, at EUR 12.1m, was 1.7% above our estimate. Cibus is now well on track to achieving the annual target of EUR 50m in dailygoods property acquisitions this year. At the end of Q1 the portfolio GAV stood at EUR 821m and is expected to reach EUR 850m by the end of Q2 as already announced deals will be closed. We update our estimates to reflect the situation as expected from Q3 onwards. We update our TP to SEK 125 (120) per share while our rating remains HOLD.

No significant changes in key metrics during Q1

Valuation per sqm (EUR 1,740), EPRA NAV (EUR 11.2 per share) and net LTV ratio (57%) all improved a bit. Occupancy rate declined by a percentage point to 95%. Cibus’ average borrowing rate now equals 2.8%, and there is still room for improvement as the third senior debt facility is yet to be refinanced. The EUR 135m bond is trading above par and Cibus is likely able to refinance at a rate more than 100bps below the current coupon.

The portfolio WAULT remains stable at 5.0 years

The portfolio is stable in terms of the weighted average unexpired lease term. The measure has proved steady at around 5.0 years as the portfolio has an even number of leases coming up for renewal each year. The leases are typically extended with the same terms for the next 5 years. Cibus also continues with its plans to develop the organization while monitoring the Swedish property market even if there are yet no concrete entry plans.

We update estimates based on earnings capacity for Q3

Cibus has so far this spring announced EUR 30m in acquisitions; these are reflected in the current earnings capacity figure for Jun 30 (the deals will close in Q2). We therefore update our estimates from Q3 onwards. Cibus now trades close to par in terms of EV/GAV and P/NAV. In our view a slight premium (somewhere in the 0-10% range) can be justified as the valuation methodology for individual daily-goods properties doesn’t capture the risk diversification effect Cibus can achieve with its property portfolio (currently numbering 132 assets). We update our target price to SEK 125 (120) per share and retain our HOLD rating.

Cibus Nordic - Income slightly above our estimate

15.05.2019 | Earnings Flash

Cibus’ Q1 net rental income came in a bit above our expectations. Q1 earnings capacity was unchanged, but is expected to increase by about 3% by the end of Q2 as recently announced acquisitions will be closed.

  • Net rental income amounted to EUR 12.1m vs. our EUR 11.9m estimate.
  • Central administration expenses totaled EUR 1.0m vs. our expectation of EUR 0.9m. EBIT therefore stood at EUR 11.2m vs. our EUR 11.0m projection.
  • Gross asset value was EUR 821m (EUR 816m previously).
  • EPRA NAV was booked at EUR 11.2 (11.1) per share.
  • Occupancy rate stood at 95.1% (96.0%).
  • Net LTV amounted to 56.7% (58.4%).
  • The current NTM earnings capacity (in terms of net rental income minus central administration expenses, or EBIT) stood unchanged at EUR 44.2m as of Mar 31, 2019. Cibus expects the figure increase to EUR 45.6m by Jun 30, 2019 as the recently announced property acquisitions will be included in the portfolio.

Cibus Nordic - Property income to grow further

28.02.2019 | Company update

Cibus updated its dividend policy. Dividend payments will now increase on a quarterly basis (at a 5% annual pace). While there have been no major changes in the underlying portfolio fundamentals, the company has managed to increase its cash flow by 10% since the March 2018 IPO due to acquisitions and refinancing activities. The portfolio now holds 132 Finnish properties with a gross asset value of EUR 816m; 2019 pipeline might add another EUR 50m.

NOI capacity unchanged at EUR 47.8m, income at EUR 31m

Profit from property management was 1.5% below our expectations. Administration costs were higher during Q4, amounting to EUR 1.4m vs the budgeted EUR 0.9m cost. The higher expenses were attributable to the CEO departure. Cibus has now shifted to financial year that follows the calendar year. Dividends will be paid out on a quarterly basis; the first 2019 payment has a June record date. From now on, Cibus targets a 5% annual increase in dividends. In our view, Cibus has ample capacity to increase its annual payments. The proposed 2019 distribution of EUR 0.84 per share implies a total dividend of EUR 26.1m, or a 7.8% yield. We have estimated that the current portfolio has an annual distribution capacity amounting to close to EUR 30m. Cibus estimates its operating income capacity at EUR 31m, up from the previous EUR 30.6m figure.

EPRA NAV amounted to EUR 11.1 (11.2) per share

The central portfolio metrics were basically flat. Occupancy rate improved slightly to 96.0% (95.8%), with LTV at 58.4% (58.3%). Cibus has increased its bank financing to EUR 354m (EUR 325m), while the margin has decreased by 20bps, to 1.9%, and the weighted average tenor increased to 2.9 years (2.3).

Our target still stands at SEK 120, downgrade to HOLD

Our expectations for Cibus’ portfolio remain unchanged. We expect Cibus’ 2019 acquisition pipeline (approximately EUR 50m) to comprise mainly of grocery properties let to Kesko. We are waiting to see the acquisitions materialize. We retain our target price of SEK 120 per share and update our rating to HOLD (BUY).

Cibus Nordic - Dividend proposed at EUR 0.84 (0.80)

27.02.2019 | Earnings Flash

Cibus disclosed a new dividend policy with quarterly increases. From now on, the company targets a 5% annual increase in dividends.

  • Rental income for the Jul-Dec 2018 period amounted to EUR 25.0m, and NOI totaled EUR 23.4m. Occupancy rate was 96%.
  • The portfolio had a year-end gross asset value of EUR 816m.
  • Cibus expects to make acquisitions to the tune of EUR 50m during 2019.
  • The quarterly increasing dividend means that the first partial payment will be EUR 0.2062 per share, the second EUR 0.2087 per share, the third EUR 0.2113 per share and the fourth EUR 0.2138 per share.
  • NOI capacity remains at EUR 47.8m.
  • Since the March 2018 IPO, acquisitions and refinancing have helped cash flow to improve by 10%. While the portfolio is currently exclusively invested in Finnish properties, Cibus restates its long-term plan to enter other Nordic markets.

Cibus Nordic - A routine trip for groceries

28.11.2018 | Company update

Cibus’ quarterly results closely reflected the company’s earnings capacity. We update our estimates to account for the acquisition of six properties the company announced in early November. The add-on properties are expected to contribute ca. EUR 2m in annual rental income. We retain our BUY rating and target price of SEK 120 per share.

The portfolio now includes 132 properties

Following the company’s latest acquisition of six Finnish daily-goods properties (all let to Kesko and Tokmanni), the portfolio now has a total lettable area of some 477,000 sqm and NOI capacity of EUR 47.8m. The latest add-on portfolio was acquired at a total cost of EUR 30m, the acquisition yield estimated at 6.5%. Consequently, Cibus’ portfolio gross asset value currently stands at around EUR 815m. After subtracting the central administration and net financial costs, Cibus now has capacity to pay ca. EUR 30m in annual dividends. The dividend guidance currently remains at EUR 0.2 per share per quarter, or EUR 24.9m on an annual basis.

EPRA NAV increased to EUR 11.2 (11.0) per share

Going forward, Cibus’ financial year will follow the calendar year. This means the company’s next year-end report will be published in late February 2019 for the period covering the second half of 2018. Meanwhile board member Jonas Ahlblad will serve as an interim CEO until a new CEO has been appointed. During the coming months we are expecting the company to announce the refinancing of two bank loans. Cibus might increase its borrowings and use the proceeds to acquire additional daily-goods properties in Finland. We expect the completed refinancing to meaningfully cut the company’s average borrowing rate, which currently stands close to 3%.

Retain BUY rating with TP of SEK 120 per share

We update our estimates to reflect the latest add-on acquisition. We expect the company to announce further portfolio acquisitions during the next quarters. We retain our BUY rating and target of SEK 120 per share.

Cibus Nordic - No surprises; updated earnings capacity provides color on the latest transaction

27.11.2018 | Earnings Flash

Cibus’ Jul-Sep 2018 quarter proceeded in-line with estimates. Net rental income and operating income came in as guided by the company’s earnings capacity. From now on, dividends will be paid on a quarterly basis.

  • Operating income during the quarter, at EUR 7.2m, was consistent with the annual earnings capacity previously communicated by the company for the period (EUR 28.8m).
  • Cibus previously announced an acquisition of six daily-goods properties in Finland at a cost of EUR 30m. The updated earnings capacity hints at an acquisition yield of ca 6.5%, i.e. an increase of EUR 2.0m in rental income. Correspondingly, the annual NOI capacity now stands at EUR 47.8m vs. EUR 45.8m previously. The six recently acquired properties are all let to Kesko and Tokmanni.
  • Going forward, Cibus will pay dividends quarterly. Moreover, Cibus’ financial year will now follow the calendar year, meaning that the company’s next year-end report will be published in Feb 2019 for the period Jul-Dec 2018. Meanwhile board member Jonas Ahlblad (Sirius Capital Partners) will serve as an interim CEO until a new CEO has been appointed.

Cibus Nordic - Initiating coverage with BUY

23.10.2018 | Company report

We initiate coverage on Cibus with BUY rating and target of SEK 120. We expect the grocery retail portfolio to generate stable and predictable inflation-linked cash flows while from a valuation standpoint there is room for further yield compression.

Solid grocery retail portfolio with anchoring tenant strategy

Cibus’ property portfolio is largely occupied by three leading Finnish daily-goods retailers. A natural outcome due to the market’s oligopolistic structure, we view the portfolio’s tenant risk as negligible. We expect the average lease duration to remain at its current level of ca. 5 years and the occupancy rate to stay at 95%. The portfolio’s rental income is fully linked to inflation while the properties’ operating costs are mostly borne by the tenants owing to the contracts being largely net lease in nature.

We like the portfolio’s large exposure to supermarkets

In our view the supermarket-size store is the most attractive and resilient type of daily-goods store, offering a good balance between logistic efficiency and daily convenience. 43% of the portfolio’s rental income is attributable supermarkets spread around Finland, while another 25% is contributed by discount stores located for the large part in Southern Finland.

Groceries to manage e-commerce in cities and rural areas

In our view e-commerce currently represents a manageable tail risk for grocery retailers. The economics of grocery e-commerce remain challenging, especially in a country as sparsely populated as Finland. We think supermarkets as particularly well-positioned to weather the e-commerce threat and even benefit owing to their status as a distribution network.

Initiating coverage with a BUY rating and TP of SEK 120

We expect Cibus’ income to grow in-line with the Finnish CPI and property expenses to stay at ca. 7%, paving the way for a highly predictable financial performance. As the shares currently trade slightly below par in terms of EV/GAV, we see potential for both price gain as well as solid income from dividends.

Cibus company presentation 02072019

Cibus Nordic - Company presentation


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Cibus company presentation 02072019

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Cibus aims to increase dividend payments by 5% annually

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