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Financial overview

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CapMan - Robust fundraising pipeline

31.01.2020 | Company update

CapMan posted strong Q4 results and the operating profit adjusted for the EUR 4.2m goodwill amortization related to CapMan’s operations in Russia improved clearly to EUR 7.7m, aided by significant carried interest. On-going fundraising projects, with the NRE III and NC III funds as new projects, provide major AUM growth potential. The Q4 report overall provided clear support for continued solid earnings growth in coming years. We raise our target price to EUR 2.5 (2.1) ex-div and retain our HOLD-rating.

Carried interest boosted Q4 profitability

CapMan’s Q4 results beat expectations. Revenue grew to EUR 16.6m, aided by EUR 5.4m carried interest mainly from the Hotels fund. The operating profit amounted to EUR 3.4m but was affected by a non-cash amortization of goodwill relating to CapMan’s business in Russia and the adj. operating profit was at EUR 7.7m. A clear positive sign was the growth in management fees during Q4, up to EUR 7.3m. CapMan proposed a dividend of EUR 0.13 per share.

Major AUM growth potential in coming years

CapMan has begun the fundraising for the NRE III and NC III funds, which should add new AUM north of EUR 500m upon close. Together with other on-going fundraising projects we see major AUM growth potential in the coming years. We have post Q4 raised our estimates, with our 2020-2021E adj. operating profit estimates up some 20%. We expect a 140% increase in the Management Company business adj. operating profit (excl. carry) in 2020 driven by fee growth and limited cost increases.

HOLD with an ex-div TP of EUR 2.5 (2.1)

CapMan’s share price has seen larger increases and on peer multiples the expected major profitability improvement in 2020 appears to have been largely accounted for. On our revised estimates we raise our target price to EUR 2.5 (2.1) ex-div and retain our HOLD-rating.

CapMan - Carry offset by goodwill amortization

30.01.2020 | Earnings Flash

CapMan's net sales in Q4 amounted to EUR 16.6m, above our estimates and above consensus estimates (EUR 12.5m/11.4m Evli/cons.) following clearly higher carried interest. EBIT amounted to EUR 3.4m, below our and consensus estimates (EUR 4.7m/5.0m Evli/cons.). Adj. EBIT was EUR 7.7m. CapMan proposes a dividend of EUR 0.13 per share (EUR 0.13/0.13 Evli/Cons.).

  • Revenue in Q4 was EUR 16.6m (EUR 8.9m in Q4/18), above our estimates and consensus estimates (EUR 12.5m/11.4m Evli/Cons.). CapMan recorded EUR 5.4m in carried interest, (Evli EUR 2.0m).
  • Operating profit in Q4 amounted to EUR 3.4m (EUR -2.9m in Q4/18), below our estimates and consensus estimates (EUR 4.7m/5.0m Evli/cons.). The operating profit includes a EUR 4.2m goodwill amortization relating to CapMan’s business in Russia and the adjusted operating profit amounted to EUR 7.7m
  • EPS in Q4 amounted to EUR 0.02 (EUR -0.02 in Q4/18), in line with our and consensus estimates (EUR 0.02/0.03 Evli/cons.).
  • Management Company business: Revenue in Q4 was EUR 13.0m vs. EUR 8.7m Evli. Operating profit in Q4 amounted to EUR 2.4m vs. EUR 2.9m Evli. Adj. operating profit was EUR 6.6m
  • Investment business: Operating profit in Q4 amounted to EUR 2.1m vs. EUR 1.6m Evli.
  • Services business: Revenue in Q4 was EUR 3.2m vs. EUR 3.4m Evli. Operating profit in Q4 amounted to EUR 0.9m vs. EUR 1.2m Evli.
  • Dividend proposal: CapMan proposes a dividend of EUR 0.13 per share (EUR 0.13/0.13 Evli/Cons.).
  • Capital under management by the end of Q4 was EUR 3.2bn (Q4/18: EUR 3.0bn).

CapMan - Expecting a good finish to the year

27.01.2020 | Preview

CapMan will report Q4 results on January 30th. We expect the operating profit to remain on par with the quarterly average earnings during 2019 and expect and operating profit of EUR 4.7m. CapMan should record higher carried interest (Evli est. EUR 2.0m) in Q4, aided by the Hotels I fund, while we expect higher personnel costs and lower investment returns to offset the positive impact. Our DPS estimate is at EUR 0.13 (2018: EUR 0.12). We retain our HOLD-rating and TP of EUR 2.1 intact ahead of the results.

Q4 operating profit estimate at EUR 4.7m

We expect Q4 revenue of EUR 12.5m (Q4/18: 8.9m) and an operating profit of EUR 4.7m (Q4/18: -2.9m). Pre-Q4 we have made downward adjustments to our estimates mainly due to increases in personnel expenses relating to expected bonuses and minor downward adjustments to revenue estimates. We have also lowered our investment return estimates based on the news flow on exits during Q4. We expect carried interest to increase clearly q/q (Evli est. EUR 2.0m) due to continuation of the Hotels fund and thereto related realization of carried interest.

Expect continued solid earnings growth in 2020

Our estimates imply a y/y improvement of 73% in operating profit during 2019. CapMan has not given any guidance for 2020 but expects significant growth in capital under management and we expect continued solid growth in operating profit of around 40% in 2020 driven by earnings growth across the board. The continuation of the Hotels I fund during Q4 will have a clear positive impact on both management fees and operating profit following an expected limited impact on costs.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 2.1

We expect CapMan to propose a dividend of EUR 0.13 per share, translating into a dividend yield of 5.6% on previous closing price. We keep our HOLD-rating and target price of EUR 2.1 intact ahead of the Q4 results.

CapMan - Solid performance across the board

01.11.2019 | Company update

CapMan posted solid Q3 results, largely in line with our estimates, with Q3 revenue amounting to EUR 9.7m (Evli 9.9m) and EBIT of EUR 5.5m (Evli 5.3m). CapMan is showing good development across all business segments and in the light of a good fundraising outlook we have slightly raised our AUM estimates and for 2020-2021 and made corresponding changes to the Management company business EBIT. Following adjustments to expenses of Other operations our Group estimates are largely intact. We retain our HOLD-rating with a TP of EUR 2.1 (1.95)

Solid results, carry contribution minor

CapMan continued to post solid results, on Group level largely in line with our estimates. Q3 revenue amounted to EUR 9.7m (Evli 9.9m) and EBIT of EUR 5.5m (Evli 5.3m). AUM development compared to Q2 was flattish given no new fund closings but up 21% y/y. The Mezzanine V -fund entered carry but with a limited impact and total carry was at Q2 levels of EUR 0.7m. The Investment business contributed to a larger part of EBIT, aided by Buyouts exit from Kämp Collection Hotels. Q3 in general in our view showed little signs of weakness.

Positive fundraising outlook

CapMan is currently raising capital more or less across the board and management sees significant growth in AUM during 2020. Investment returns so far during 2019 surpassed the lower end of the 10-15% target return and all three service businesses are reportedly performing well, with 1-9/2019 Services business growth of over 90%. We have slightly increased our views on 2020-2021 AUM development and as a result raised our Management company EBIT estimates by some 12%. Following an offsetting impact of revised Other operations expense estimates our Group estimates remain largely unchanged.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 2.1 (1.95)

On Group level our coming year estimates remain largely unchanged. With the outlook for the core business looking yet more favourable we adjust our target price to EUR 2.1 (1.95) and retain our hold rating.

CapMan - In line with expectations

31.10.2019 | Earnings Flash

CapMan's net sales in Q3 amounted to EUR 9.7m, in line with our estimates and slightly below consensus (EUR 9.9m/10.1m Evli/cons.). EBIT amounted to EUR 5.5m, slightly above our estimates and in line with consensus (EUR 5.3m/5.6m Evli/cons.).

  • Revenue in Q3 was EUR 9.7m (EUR 7.2m in Q3/18), in line with our estimates and slightly below consensus estimates (EUR 9.9m/10.1m Evli/Cons.). Growth in Q3 amounted to 34.7 % y/y.
  • Operating profit in Q3 amounted to EUR 5.5m (EUR 4.8m in Q3/18), slightly above our estimates and in line with consensus estimates (EUR 5.3m/5.6m Evli/cons.), at a margin of 56.7 %.
  • EPS in Q3 amounted to EUR 0.03 (EUR 0.03 in Q3/18), in line with our estimates and consensus estimates (EUR 0.03/0.03 Evli/cons.).
  • Management Company business: Revenue in Q3 was EUR 7.0m vs. EUR 6.9m Evli. Operating profit in Q3 amounted to EUR 1.9m vs. EUR 2.0m Evli.
  • Investment business: Revenue in Q3 was EUR 0.0m vs. EUR 0.0m Evli. Operating profit in Q3 amounted to EUR 3.2m vs. EUR 2.4m Evli.
  • Services business: Revenue in Q3 was EUR 2.7m vs. EUR 3.0m Evli. Operating profit in Q3 amounted to EUR 1.6m vs. EUR 1.3m Evli.
  • Capital under management by the end of Q3 was EUR 3.2bn (Q3/18: EUR 2.7bn). Real estate funds: EUR 1.9bn, private equity & credit funds: EUR 1.0bn, infra funds: EUR 0.3bn, and other funds: EUR 0.1bn.
  • The CapMan Mezzanine V fund under our CapMan’s Credit strategy started realizing carry in September.

CapMan - Downgrade to HOLD

25.10.2019 | Preview

CapMan will report Q3 results on October 31st. With our expectation of only a limited impact of carried interest and success fees on the quarter, for group results remaining on par with H1/19 levels investment returns will need to be at a good level. In general, the news flow during Q3 implies little out of the ordinary and as such our interest will mainly be on the development of recently launched products and fundraising projects. We retain our target price of EUR 1.95 but downgrade to HOLD (BUY) following a share price increase since our previous update.

Estimates revisions ahead of Q3

We expect a Q3 revenue of 9.9m (prev. 11.5m) and operating profit of EUR 5.3m (prev. EUR 7.2m). We have lowered our estimates mainly to reflect lower expectations for carried interest from newer funds, now mainly from Access Capital funds, and lower our management fee estimates given no new fund closings. The first closing of the Buyout XI-fund in 6/2019 will however support management fees and we expect to see continued growth. Investment returns pose the biggest uncertainty risk to our estimates and would need to be at a good level for group results remaining on par with H1/19 levels.

Development of newer products of interest

The news flow during Q3 in our view in general does not imply anything out of the ordinary during the quarter. We will be looking for more information regarding on-going fundraising projects and newly launched products as well as any potential remarks on near-term carried interest outlook from the interim report.

HOLD (BUY) with a target price of EUR 1.95

We have made minor downward revisions to our estimates ahead of Q3 and retain our target price of EUR 1.95. With the share price having enjoyed clear increases since our previous update we downgrade to HOLD (BUY).

CapMan - Steaming ahead

09.08.2019 | Company update

CapMan’s Q2 results were above estimates, largely due to Scala’s success fees. The Buyout XI fund held a first closing at EUR 160m, to aid management fees during H2/19 and onwards. The Q2 report gave little reason to change our views on CapMan’s development; on the contrary, we have made upward revisions to our estimates. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.95 (1.85).

Earnings boosted by significant Scala success fees

CapMan’s Q2 results beat both our and consensus expectations, with revenue at EUR 13.4m (Evli/cons. 10.8m/11.0m) and EBIT at EUR 5.8m (Evli/cons. 4.5m/4.2m). The stronger earnings were in our view largely due to stronger than expected Scala success fees. The solid Services business operating profit (Act./Evli 4.9m/2.1m) was slightly offset by weaker investment returns, due to weaker performance of certain portfolio companies, according to management of a more temporary nature. The Buyout XI fund held a first closing at EUR 160m, with management fees expected to kick in during Q3.

Solid Services business development

We have revised our 2019 estimates slightly upwards, mainly due to the strong Q2 earnings. We have further raised our estimates for the coming years, with our 2020 operating profit estimate up 10%, reflected mainly through the Services business. Our estimates continue to rely on more rapid accumulation of carried interest starting from H2/19, the timing and materialization of which remains the biggest near-term uncertainty. For 2019 we expect an operating profit of EUR 24.7m, with a diversified contribution split from all business areas.

BUY with a target price of EUR 1.95 (1.85)

Our SOTP implies a fair value of EUR 1.82 per share, which together with peer multiple valuation implies a limited valuation upside. However, when considering the top-class dividend yield and expected ~35% improvement in operating profit in 2020, CapMan in our view remains an attractive case. Following our estimates revisions, we lift our target price to EUR 1.95 (1.85) and retain our BUY-rating.

CapMan - Earnings beat through success fees

08.08.2019 | Earnings Flash

CapMan's net sales in Q2 amounted to EUR 13.4m, above our estimates (Evli EUR 10.8m), with EBIT also above our estimates (Evli EUR 4.5m), at EUR 5.8m. Scala recorded significant success fees in the quarter, larger than we had anticipated, contributing strongly to the earnings beat.

  • Revenue in Q2 was EUR 13.4m (EUR 11.4m in Q2/18), above our estimates (Evli EUR 10.8m). Growth in Q2 amounted to 18 % y/y.
  • Operating profit in Q2 amounted to EUR 5.8m (EUR 6m in Q2/18), clearly beating our estimates (Evli EUR 4.5m).
  • Management Company business: Revenue in Q2 was EUR 6.4m vs. EUR 6.7m Evli. Operating profit in Q2 amounted to EUR 0.9m vs. EUR 0.8m Evli.
  • Investment business: Revenue in Q2 was EUR 0m vs. EUR 0m Evli. Operating profit in Q2 amounted to EUR 1m vs. EUR 2.3m Evli.
  • Services business: Revenue in Q2 was EUR 6.9m vs. EUR 3.9m Evli. Operating profit in Q2 amounted to EUR 4.9m vs. EUR 2.1m Evli.
  • Capital under management by the end of Q2 was EUR 3.3b. Of the capital under management EUR 1.9bn was attributable to Real Estate, EUR 1.0bn to Private Equity & Credit and EUR 0.3bn to Infra and other.

CapMan - Outlook remains positive

26.04.2019 | Company update

CapMan posted solid Q1 results, although slightly below our estimates. Of particular interest were comments relating to carried interest, with potential materialization from H2/19 onwards. The fundraising of the newest Buyout fund is progressing well, while Infra has also seen positive development, with AUM now at EUR 270m. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.85 (1.80)

Comparable operating profit at a solid EUR 5.6m

CapMan’s Q1 results fell slightly below our estimates, with group turnover at EUR 9.3m (Evli 10.7m) and operating profit of EUR 4.7m (Evli 5.5m). The comparable operating profit, excluding one-off costs relating mainly to the acquisition of JAM Advisors, amounted to EUR 5.6m. The combined revenue of the Management Company business and Services business grew 27% y/y. No significant carried interest was booked during the quarter, but Scala success fees aided the Services business turnover. The operating profit was aided by a EUR 1.5m fair value change of the company’s market portfolio, with EUR 20m of the portfolio remaining at the end of the quarter.

Positive comments on carried interest outlook

Management comments regarding the carried interest outlook were positive. Carried interest materialization already during H2/19 appears plausible and potential in the coming years remains solid in both private equity funds and real estate. Near-term interest also remains on the progress of fundraising of the new Buyout fund and development of the first Infra fund, with total AUM in Infra already at EUR 270m, while management also hinted on new projects in the pipeline.

BUY with a TP of EUR 1.85 (1.80)

We have made no major revisions to our estimates post-Q1. We expect an operating profit of EUR 23.4m, supported by carried interest during the latter half of the year. Although uncertainties with carried interest are always present, the encouraging management comments alleviate some uncertainty concerns. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.85 (1.80).

CapMan - A solid start to the year

25.04.2019 | Earnings Flash

CapMan’s Q1 results were slightly below our estimates. Group turnover amounted to EUR 9.3m (Evli EUR 10.7m) and the operating profit amounted to EUR 4.7m (Evli 5.5m), while the comparable operating profit was at EUR 5.6m. CapMan continued reallocation of its market portfolio capital, with EUR 20.0m remaining. Capital under management rose to EUR 3.2bn.

  • Group turnover in Q1 amounted to EUR 9.3m (EUR 7.3m in Q1/18), below our estimates (Evli EUR 10.7m). No significant carried interest was booked during the quarter.
  • Operating profit in Q1 was EUR 4.7m (EUR 4.1m in Q1/18), below our estimates (Evli EUR 5.5m). Operating profit excl. IAC was EUR 5.6m
  • Management Company business revenue in Q1 was EUR 6.4m vs. EUR 7.2m Evli. Operating profit in Q1 was EUR 0.8m vs. EUR 1.8m Evli.
  • Investment business: Revenue in Q1 was EUR 0.0m vs. EUR 0.2m Evli. Operating profit in Q1 was EUR 3.9m vs. EUR 2.9m Evli.
  • Services business: Revenue in Q1 was EUR 2.9m vs. EUR 3.3m Evli. Operating profit in Q1 was EUR 1.8m vs. EUR 1.3m Evli.
  • Capital under management by the end of Q1 was EUR 3.2bn. Of the capital under management EUR 1.9bn was attributable to real estate funds, EUR 0.9bn to private equity funds and EUR 0.3bn to Infra.
  • CapMan continued reallocation of its market portfolio funds and had EUR 20.0m remaining at the end of Q1.

CapMan - Gaining momentum

20.03.2019 | Company report

CapMan has been continuing to show signs of its business moving in the right direction, having successfully launched several important funds and signed new and additional mandates and recently seen AUM again passing the EUR 3bn mark. 2018 saw earnings fall due to negative returns on the non-core market portfolio but the earnings outlook for 2019 onwards remains attractive with core business area earnings picking up pace. We retain our BUY rating with an ex-div target price of EUR 1.80 (1.75).

Additional earnings stability through increased fee income

CapMan is seeking to create a healthier earnings base, with the role of volatile carried interest decreasing and the more stable fee income increasing. CapMan is further seeking to expand its investor base, currently consisting mainly of local tier 1 investors. 2018 in our view was a year of clear signs of the business improving as intended, although profitability fell due to negative returns on the non-core market portfolio. Several important funds have been launched in the past few years along with the signing of new and additional mandates, for instance the additional EUR 320m BVK mandate, that will have a positive impact on growth and earnings in early 2019 and over time.

Dividends an important part of the investment case

CapMan has raised the absolute DPS now six years in a row and revised its dividend policy, targeting to annually increase DPS. We expect CapMan to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.13 per share in 2019E, corresponding to an estimated dividend yield of 7.7%.

BUY with a target price of EUR 1.80 (1.75)

Our sum-of-the-parts approach implies a fair value of EUR 1.75 per share. On earnings-based multiples, primarily P/E, valuation compared to the three by size comparable peers appears fair. The dividend yield on our estimates however shows a clear disparity, with CapMan’s dividend yield on our estimates approx. 20% above the peers. We retain our BUY-rating with an ex-div (post equity repayment of EUR 0.06) target price of EUR 1.80 (1.75).

CapMan - Picking up the pace with M&A

01.02.2019 | Company update

CapMan’s Q4 results were as expected weaker and in line with our expectations, despite our underestimation of the negative impact on the market portfolio. The acquisition of JAM Advisors (60%) is seen by CapMan as a means to expanding its customer base but we expect CapMan to also seek to rapidly grow the business. We retain our BUY rating with an ex-div TP of EUR 1.75 (1.80).

Weaker results, raises dividend

CapMan’s Q4 results were quite in line with our expectations, with revenue of EUR 8.9m (Evli 8.2m) and EBIT of EUR -2.9m (Evli -2.8m). Despite having underestimated the market portfolio decline positive fair value changes in especially Real estate and Infra aided Investment business returns. The dividend proposal is EUR 0.12 per share as expected (2017: 0.11).

Acquisition of the majority of JAM Advisors

CapMan announced the acquisition of 60% of JAM Advisors, to be paid for with 5.11m CapMan shares. The company, established in 2012, had EUR 3.3m revenue in 2018 and EBITDA was barely positive. Valuation appears reasonable as it is to be expected that CapMan will seek for rapid expansion of the business, likely also internationally. CapMan will also use JAM Advisor’s customer network to expand its own offering towards tier 2 and 3 investors.

BUY-rating with an ex-div target price of EUR 1.75 (1.80)

CapMan has during Q4, through among other things the additional BVK mandate and second Infra mandate, seen AUM growth of EUR over 400m, that will contribute with over EUR 4m annual fee income. Together with the acquisition of JAM Advisors this will boost revenue and profitability in 2019 and we have raised our 2019 estimates for revenue and operating profit by 13% and 5% respectively. We expect management fee growth of 23% in 2019. Despite the negative Q4 earnings from the impact of the non-core market portfolio CapMan is in our view continuing to show solid progress. With valuation still looking attractive we retain our BUY rating with an ex-div target price of EUR 1.75 (1.80).

CapMan - Earnings weaker as expected

31.01.2019 | Earnings Flash

CapMan’s Q4 results were weaker as expected due to the market volatility. A dividend of EUR 0.12 per share is proposed (Evli EUR 0.12). AUM grew to over EUR 3bn driven by the additional BVK mandate. CapMan further announced the acquisition of 60% of analysis and wealth management company JAM Advisors.

  • Income in Q4 was EUR 8.9m (EUR 8.8m in Q4/17), above our estimates (Evli EUR 8.2m).
  • Operating profit in Q4 was EUR -2.9m (EUR -3.4m in Q4/17), quite in line with our estimates (Evli EUR -2.8m).
  • Management Company business revenue in Q4 was EUR 6.2m vs. EUR 6m Evli. Operating profit in Q4 was EUR 0.5m vs. EUR -0.1m Evli.
  • Investment business: Revenue in Q4 was EUR 0.2m vs. EUR 0.2m Evli. Operating profit in Q4 was EUR -4m vs. EUR -3.2m Evli.
  • Services business: Revenue in Q4 was EUR 2m vs. EUR 2m Evli. Operating profit in Q4 was EUR 0.8m vs. EUR 1m Evli.
  • Dividend proposal: CapMan proposes a dividend of EUR 0.12 per share (Evli EUR 0.12).
  • Guidance: CapMan does not provide a numeric guidance for 2019.
  • Capital under management by the end of Q4 was EUR 3.0bn. Of the capital under management EUR 1.9bn was attributable to real estate funds, EUR 0.8bn to portfolio companies and EUR 0.3bn to Infra and Credit.
  • CapMan announced that it has acquired 60% of analysis and wealth management company JAM Advisors. The acquisition will provide opportunities for CapMan to expand into new customer segments. The company’s turnover in 2018 was approx. EUR 3.3m and EBITDA barely positive.

CapMan - Weaker finish to otherwise solid year

24.01.2019 | Preview

CapMan will report Q4 results on January 31st. We expect Q4 to based on earnings be a weaker end to an otherwise solid year, driven by the impact of the market volatility on CapMan’s trading portfolio. Our revised Q4 estimates for revenue and operating profit are at EUR 8.2m and EUR -2.8m respectively. We expect a dividend of EUR 0.12 per share. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.80 (1.75).

Market volatility to weigh on Q4

We expect CapMan to report weaker Q4 earnings due to the effect of market volatility on the trading portfolio during the quarter. CapMan has been shifting funds from the trading portfolio to own funds, with some EUR 20m transferred during H1/18, but was still at near EUR 60m at the end of Q3. As to our understanding some 60% of the portfolio is hedged, we expect an EUR 3m fair value loss. We also do not expect any notable carried interest or success fees for the quarter. We have revised our Q4 revenue and operating profit estimates to EUR 8.2m (10.0m) and EUR -2.8m (5.0m) respectively. Although we anticipate a weaker result in 2018 compared to 2017, we expect CapMan to increase dividends to EUR 0.12 (2017: 0.11) per share.

BVK mandate addition to support management fee growth

During Q4 CapMan reported the increase of the BVK mandate to EUR 820m (prev. 500m), which we expect to have an additional earnings contribution of around EUR 1.5m p.a. The whole mandate is to our understanding close to being fully invested and will boost management fees from 2019 forward.

BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.80 (1.75)

Looking at 2019E and 2020E P/E multiples, coupled with the high dividend yield, valuation in our view does not yet appear challenging, with a ~15% discount to peers on P/E. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.80 (1.75).

CapMan - CMD notes

29.11.2018 | Company update

CapMan’s CMD revolved around the strategic changes that have taken place during the past few years and CapMan’s position going forward. Key emphasis will, based on our take on the CMD, lie on earnings stability, asset diversification, and broadening of the investor base.

Multi-asset manager

CapMan’s CMD clearly signaled the continued strive towards an increasing Nordic presence and to a larger extent becoming a multi-asset manager. In our view key areas of interest will be the fairly recently established areas of Growth equity and Infra. The presented performance metrics for exits in CapMan Growth are impressive, with significant further potential going forward. The Infra fund has had a good start and a second mandate, still subject to approval, has been signed.

Broadening of investor base

Another strategic area of focus lies in the broadening of the investor base. Currently some 85 % of AUM stems from local tier 1 investors. CapMan is seeking to increase the share of tier 2 and 3 investors along with international tier 1 investors. Targeting investors with smaller ticket sizes could likely be reflected in new product launches similar to the open-ended NPI fund.

Seeking earnings stability, carry potential remains

CapMan’s financial objective remain unchanged. Currently the average ROE of 20 % in our view remains the most challenging. Realization of mid- to long-term carry potential remains a key factor but CapMan is also seeking to increase the share of fee income to achieve more stability in earnings.

BUY with a target price of EUR 1.75

Our estimates remain unchanged, with earnings expected to improve in the coming years. The effect of recent market uncertainty on CapMan is in our view currently mostly neutral. We expect several new products to be launched during 2019 and the uncertainty could impact on fundraising, although fund track records remain supportive. We retain our BUY-rating and target price of EUR 1.75.

CapMan - On a healthy development track

02.11.2018 | Company update

CapMan’s Q3 results were good and the EBIT of EUR 4.8m beat our estimates (Evli EUR 4.1m). In our view the Q3 progress continued to show a move towards realizing built up long-term potential and developing into a healthier business in terms of earnings stability. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.75.

Q3 EBIT beat, first closing of Infra fund

CapMan’s Q3 earnings beat our expectations, with EBIT at EUR 4.8m (Evli EUR 4.1m). The earnings were driven by CapMan Growth Fund’s successful exit from Fluido. Revenue in Q3 was EUR 7.2m, below our estimates of EUR 8.6m, as no major carried interest was booked. CapMan further announced the first closing of CapMan Infra’s Nordic midcap infrastructure fund, with committed funds of EUR 115m.

Showing continued healthy development

CapMan in our view is nearing a point were some of the long-term potential is starting to realize and the business is becoming healthier in terms of recurring earnings, as opposed to high quarterly variability witnessed in previous years. Management comments regarding the NRE I-fund were positive, with foreign investor interest remaining good and on-going discussions regarding properties. The BVK mandate is set to reach full utilization in 2019 along with the Infra fund expected to reach the target of raising EUR 300+m, which along with growth in other on-going newer ventures will benefit fee income. The NPI-fund saw slower growth amid internal sales focus on the Infra-Fund, with investor demand still remaining good. Although predictability of materialization of carried interest is low, we continue to see good potential for 2019.

BUY with a target price of EUR 1.75

It is worth noting that the recent stock market uncertainty, were it to increase further, would undoubtedly also affect CapMan. In our view the risks due to the PE exposure are smaller and mainly long-term, as market uncertainty could affect ability to raise funds and exit timing and valuations. We retain our BUY-rating with a target price of EUR 1.75.

CapMan - Continued solid earnings

01.11.2018 | Earnings Flash

CapMan’s posted good Q3 results. EBIT was EUR 4.8m vs. Evli EUR 4.1m. The exit from Fluido significantly contributed to earnings. Net sales were EUR 7.2m (Evli 8.6m) and no larger carried interest was booked. CapMan held the first closing of its Nordic mid cap infrastructure fund, receiving commitments of EUR 115m.

  • CapMan’s Q3 net sales amounted to EUR 7.2m, below our estimates of EUR 8.6m. No larger carried interest was booked in Q3. Management Company and Service businesses fees grew 24 % during Jan-Sep 2018.
  • EBIT in Q3 amounted to EUR 4.8m, above our estimates of EUR 4.1m. The Management Company business EBIT was EUR 0.8m, Service business EBIT EUR 0.6m, Investment business EBIT EUR 3.8m, and Other EUR -0.4m. The exit from Fluido had a significant positive impact on Q3 earnings.
  • Capital under management by the end of Q3 was EUR 2.7b. Of the capital under management EUR 1.7b was attributable to real estate funds and EUR 0.8b to portfolio companies and EUR 0.2b in Infra and Credit.
  • The first closing of CapMan Infra’s Nordic mid cap infrastructure fund was held. The fund received commitments of EUR 115m. CapMan’s commitment to the fund is EUR 30m. Target size of EUR 300m is believed to be reached next year.

CapMan company presentation 29082019

CapMan - Company presentation

29.08.2019
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CapMan company presentation 29082019

Video presentation

Company Facts

Financial targets

Over 10% average annual growth of Mangement Company and Services business. Return on equity over 20%. Equity ratio over 60%. Annually increasing dividend.

Share price (EUR)


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