Nokian Panimo - Solid H2, stage set for further growth
Nokian Panimo delivered a solid H2 in line with expectations, entering 2026 with a record product launch pipeline and added capacity enabling growth going ahead.
Strong and steady development
Nokian Panimo's H2 net sales of EUR 6.8m (Evli est. EUR 6.7m) and sales volume of 4.8m liters both increased 13% y/y, marking a clear acceleration from the weather-impacted H1. The company continued to gain market share across all beverage categories despite an overall declining market and executed well in all sales channels. In the larger beer category, volumes grew 4%, improving from the flat H1, while the other beverages category remained the primary growth engine with volumes up 39% y/y, driven by market share gains and a strong product launch cycle earlier in the year. Profitability improved from H1 with EBITDA of EUR 1.3m in line with our estimate, though EBITDA margin of 19.6% declined y/y (H2'24: 21.6%) as consumer demand tilted toward lower-priced products. EPS of EUR 0.08 beat expectations, mainly driven by D&A below our estimate. The BoD proposes a dividend of EUR 0.03 per share. Additionally, the company announced quarterly sales updates starting in 2026, improving reporting transparency for investors.
Record product launches underpin 2026E growth estimates
Nokian Panimo's 2026 guidance calls for revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 17-20%. We have made no material changes to our estimates for 2026, forecasting net sales of EUR 14.5m (+12% y/y) and EBITDA margin of 18.4%. Our top line estimates are underpinned by a record product launch pipeline in H1 spanning multiple categories, with management indicating a new product category entry among the launches, which we believe could be an entry into the water category. Moreover, fermentation capacity investments completed ahead of summer should alleviate the key production bottleneck in the beer category, supporting volume growth in the important summer months. With the majority of IPO proceeds still undeployed, further capacity investments in 2026-27 appear well funded. On profitability, while management indicated tax-driven cost increases will be passed through to consumer prices from April, the key risks remain consumer preferences continuing to favor lower-priced products, and execution of the spring product launches.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 2.6 (prev. EUR 2.5)
We revise our TP to EUR 2.6 (prev. EUR 2.5) and keep our rating at ACCUMULATE. Nokian Panimo trades at 9-8x EV/EBITDA on our 2026-27E estimates, fairly in line with the peer group for 2026E, with the discount widening on 2027E as earnings growth from volume and operating leverage comes through.