Verkkokauppa.com - Extremely strong performance in Q2

Strong performance during spring & summer

Verkkokauppa.com issued a positive profit warning as its spring/summer sales and profitability have developed better than first anticipated but also due to the brighter H2’20E outlook. The company now expects 20E revenue of EUR 520-545m (Evli prev. 525m) and comparable operating profit of EUR 13-18m (Evli prev. 14.3m). The company previously expected 20E revenue of EUR 510-530m and comparable operating profit of EUR 12-15m. Verkkokauppa.com also provided preliminary Q2 figures. April-June revenue is approx. EUR 123m, growth of ~14% y/y (Evli 113m/cons. 113m) while adj. EBIT is approx. EUR 4.8m (EUR 0.2m in Q2’19) vs. EUR 1.3m/1.4m Evli/consensus. According to the company, comparable operating profit improved as a result of strong sales and improved gross margin.

Consumers have been active during Q2

Based on the preliminary second quarter figures, it seems that the demand of consumer electronics has continued strong. Due to the increased demand, we expect less price driven competition in the consumer electronics market which impacts positively on gross margin. However, we see this only as a temporary change. Also, good demand in other smaller categories (offering higher margins) supports gross margin development. We now expect Q2E gross margin of 16.4% (14.2% in Q2’19). According to the management, the pandemic might not have as big impact on consumer demand as first anticipated which is also likely to impact on H2’20E.

“BUY” with TP of EUR 6.2

We have increased our estimates as a result of the positive profit warning. We expect sales to grow also in H2’20E, although the growth is expected to normalize from H1’20. We now expect 20E revenue of EUR 535m (6% y/y) and adj. EBIT of EUR 17.1m (51% y/y). On our estimates, the company trades at 20E-21E EV/sales multiple of 0.4x, ~20% below the online focused Nordic & European peers. We keep our rating “BUY” with TP of EUR 6.2.