SRV - Well positioned for a difficult market

Q4 was weaker than expected

SRV reported Q4 results which were below our estimates. Revenue amounted to EUR 181.2m (EUR 211.9m/214.0m Evli/cons.) and EBIT was EUR -6.3m (EUR 3.6/4.1m Evli/cons.). The company estimates that 2023 group revenue is lower and operative operating profit is positive but lower than in 2022. SRV also updated its long-term financial targets (by 2026): Revenue EUR 900m and operative operating profit margin 6%. In addition, SRV aims to distribute 30-50% of earnings as dividend.

Challenging market ahead

The current estimates point towards a slowdown for 2023 in the Finnish construction market driven particularly by decreasing housing construction volumes. The market conditions are starting to show in the company’s numbers as the housing construction backlog continued to decline and the company’s revenue for Q4 was affected by delays in project starts. In our view, SRV is well positioned for a difficult market as the company’s order intake in business construction was strong during the fourth quarter. In addition to the strong presence in the lower risk business construction contracting market, the company’s balance sheet is healthy after the financing arrangements completed during H1 2022.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 4.3

We estimate revenue to decline 13.7% y/y in 2023 driven by a lack of developer contracted housing units and lower residential construction volumes while seeing healthy conditions for business construction supported by backlog growth. Because of the estimated project mix, we have also lowered our margin expectations for 2023. In our view, the near-term upside is limited yet the valuation looks rather undemanding in the long-term. We retain our HOLD-rating and TP of EUR 4.3.