SRV - Residential a thorn in the side

SRV’s revenue declined clearly in Q1, as residential construction volumes were low, and profitability as a result in the red. Market conditions remain challenging, but we expect bottom levels to have been seen and a bounce back in top- and bottom-line figures going forward.

Q1 below already low expectations

SRV reported Q1 results below our already very cautious estimates. Revenue amounted to EUR 138.3m (EUR 147.4m/151.5m Evli/cons.) and declined some 28% y/y. Housing construction volumes came down clearly, with revenue at EUR 24.0m in Q1 compared with EUR 76.5m in Q1/22. EBIT was at EUR -2.0m (EUR 1.5/1.6m Evli/cons.), weakened by the lower volumes and higher share of lower-margin construction projects. 

Challenging market ahead

The market challenges are becoming more and more visible and the new residential construction in Finland is seeing a particularly bleak outlook. Fortunately for SRV, the already earlier declining share of developer contracted projects clearly lowers the balance sheet risk. New developer contracted residential projects and residential development projects start-ups, potential sources of growth and higher margins, will however be a challenge going forward. We have revised our views for residential construction and expect essentially no revenue from developer contracted projects in 2023 and just slight improvement in 2024, mostly coming from revenue recognition of units currently under construction and unsold inventory. For residential development projects we expect slight improvement in volumes towards the end of 2023. Simultaneously, we have revised our estimates for business construction upwards driven by the improved backlog. Estimate changes: Revenue 23E 619.4m (prev. EUR 664.6m) and 24E EUR 698.5m (prev. EUR 787.0m), for EBIT, our estimate for 23E is at EUR 7.0m (prev. EUR 10.3m) and for 2024 EUR 15.4m (prev. EUR 24.1m).

HOLD with a target price of EUR 4.1 (4.3)

On our estimates, near-term valuation upside remains limited. Long-term potential remains in place should also the potentially higher-margin residential projects pick-up. We retain our HOLD-rating and adjust our TP to EUR 4.1 (EUR 4.3).

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