SRV - Headwinds remain, financially stable

Q2 profitability exceptionally good
SRV reported good Q2 results in term of P&L figures. Revenue was on par with comparison period figures at EUR 211.4m (EUR 191.7m/219.0m Evli/cons.), while profitability was above expectations, with an operating profit of EUR 10.1m (EUR 4.1m/5.5m Evli/cons.). The relative profitability was exceptionally good and not expected to be as high during H2. The order backlog development remained unfavourable, at EUR 745.9m at the end of Q2. H1 contained new agreements of EUR 202.4m. SRV specified its guidance, now expecting revenue of EUR 800-860m (prev. 800-950m) and an operative operating profit of EUR 15-25m (prev, >5.3m), which compared with our pre-Q2 estimates is slightly on the weaker side but understandable given the current market situation.

Current uncertainty threatening growth outlook
We have lowered our 2022 revenue estimate by 5% while our operative operating profit estimate is essentially intact nearer the upper end of the new guidance. We have lowered our estimates somewhat for 2023. Although SRV currently has EUR 1.3bn in won projects that are not yet entered into the order backlog, with the current uncertainty, order backlog development and lack of developer contracting housing unit start-ups we currently see limited signs of growth. Cost pressure is also still clearly present, but at least in some areas peak increases appear to be behind and the sector in general appears to have coped quite well with the pressure so far. With the completed financing arrangements SRV is now virtually net debt-free (excl. IFRS 16), thus clearly improving the risk profile.

HOLD with a TP of EUR 5.0 (prev. 0.18 pre-reverse split)
Following revisions to our estimates and with the reverse split completed in July we adjust our target price to EUR 5.0 (prev. 0.18) and retain our HOLD-rating. Our target price values SRV at around 6x EV/EBIT.