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Solteq - Good start given prevailing uncertainty

Solteq’s Q1 growth was clearly better than expected, 11.6% in comparable terms, with sales at EUR 15.7m (Evli 14.4m). The adj. EBIT was in line with our expectation at EUR 0.9m (Evli 0.8m). We expect reasonable growth in comparable terms in 2020 despite some COVID-19 headwind. We retain our HOLD-rating with a TP of EUR 1.15 (0.95).

Growth in Q1 a positive surprise
Solteq’s revenue growth in Q1 was a clear positive, with revenue growing 5.0% (comparable growth 11.6%) to EUR 15.7m (Evli EUR 14.4m). Growth was driven by the Solteq Digital as a result of good order intake. The adj. EBIT was in line with our estimates at EUR 0.9m (Evli EUR 0.8m), with a lower relative profitability y/y (Q1/19: comp. EBIT 1.2m) due to higher product development depreciation, long-term project revenue recognition and COVID-19 provisions.

Expect growth in comparable revenue despite COVID-19
Based on the positive Q1 revenue figures we have revised our 2020E estimates, expecting revenue to amount to EUR 58.9m and increase some 6.5% from 2019 comparable revenue figures. We assume a dip in sales growth during mid-2020 due to the COVID-10 pandemic but for growth to pick up in 2021. We expect the adj. EBIT in 2020E (Evli EUR 2.4m) to be slightly below 2019 comparable figures largely due to an increase in depreciation related to capitalized product investments. Solteq does not provide a guidance for 2020 due to the pandemic. During 2021-2022 we expect stronger relative growth pick up in Solteq Software with the ramp-up of new projects and a perceived lesser impact of the pandemic along with a notable improvement in relative profitability.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 1.15 (0.95)
On our revised estimates we retain our HOLD-rating with a target price of EUR 1.15 (0.95). Should growth continue at a similar pace as in Q1 valuation upside potential would be clearer, but visibility is currently limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic and earnings multiples on our estimates rather unattractive.

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