Scanfil - Sound demand outlook fully valued

Scanfil’s Q1 featured very few surprises. The company remains well-positioned and many customer megatrends continue to drive demand in the short as well as long term perspective. Our TP is now EUR 8.5 (8), rating HOLD (BUY).

All five segments have developed positive since Q3’20

Scanfil’s EUR 163m Q1 revenue was above the EUR 152m/151m Evli/cons. estimates even when excluding the discontinued trade in Hangzhou. Organic growth was 7% y/y when excluding the discontinued business. Scanfil renewed its segment structure as the previous Industrial segment had become too diverse. Advanced Consumer Applications and Energy & Cleantech, the two largest segments, both grew rapid. The former’s demand stemmed e.g. from elevators (as well as new customers) while the latter was driven by e.g. reverse vending machines. The other three segments have also continued to develop well since Q3’20, demand overall improved throughout Q1 and March was especially strong and profitable. Scanfil posted EUR 10.0m in Q1 EBIT, in line with the EUR 10.5m/10.0m Evli/cons. estimates.

Strategy and day-to-day execution continue to work

In our view Scanfil is headed for the upper end of its FY ’21 revenue guidance range. Demand outlook supports Scanfil’s long-term organic growth target and implies 5-6% CAGR in the years ahead. The accounts are unlikely to build up inventories, rather there seems to be solid demand that stems from many megatrends. Component bottlenecks are possible but so far these haven’t had a negative impact on Scanfil. The company takes proactive measures to better anticipate demand and so secure relevant components early on. Scanfil also reports no gross margin pressure and remains able to pass price inflation forward to customers. M&A options remain relevant in the long-term.

In our view further upside is not found in the short-term

Scanfil is valued ca. 9x EV/EBITDA and 12x EV/EBIT on our FY ‘21 estimates. In terms of EBITDA the share trades at a peer premium while the EBIT multiples are in line. Scanfil is thus valued at a small premium and we see this well justified. Scanfil’s and peers’ multiples have alike rerated recently. EMS companies used to be valued very low, and in our view the current higher multiples are warranted at least in Scanfil’s case. We view Scanfil’s valuation now neutral. Our new TP is EUR 8.5 (8) and rating HOLD (BUY).

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