Raute - Earnings not yet out of the woods

Name: Evli
Price range: $

Raute reports Q3 results on Thu, Oct 29. Many issues point how order levels and profitability might have bottomed out, yet we continue to view valuation neutral. We retain our EUR 20 per share target price and HOLD rating.

A very large Russian order raises confidence on next year

While Q3 order intake likely remained at a subdued level Raute disclosed on Oct 16 the signing of a complete plywood mill project delivery. The EUR 55m Russian greenfield is worth close to the record EUR 58m Segezha order now on delivery. Raute begins delivering the new order next year and the mill is set to start production in ‘22. Even though the order is very large such a project delivery announcement is not that surprising given Raute’s Russian plywood mill track record. As usual with such big projects, Raute’s margin potential is likely quite limited. The order raises our confidence on next year’s workload. We now expect FY ’21 revenue at EUR 139m (prev. EUR 127m). With regards to FY ’21 EBIT we now estimate EUR 6.6m (prev. EUR 7.4m).

Long-term potential remains strong, short-term still hazy

While the pandemic has negatively affected Raute’s business it’s worth bearing in mind the investment cycle was cooling already well before this year. Although the pandemic and related uncertainty now only seem to prolong themselves by the day, we nevertheless view the prospect of wider plywood and LVL sector investment upturn entirely plausible. We see a reasonable chance Raute’s order intake will bottom out during H2’20. Another positive is the high likelihood of Raute emerging from the pandemic even stronger relative to competition. On the negative side is the extended short-term pressure on profitability. While it is clear this year’s valuation multiples should be overlooked, next year could still fall meaningfully short of long-term potential. In our opinion Raute does not face long-term profitability challenges, but on the other hand the sector’s cyclical nature means long-term outlook should be valued cautiously.

We expect improvement, but multiples aren’t yet attractive

Now that a big project has been secured, we focus on smaller scale equipment orders and services in the Q3 report. Raute is currently trading some 7x EV/EBITDA and 11x EV/EBIT on our estimates for next year. We view these multiples quite neutral in the current context. We retain our EUR 20 TP and HOLD rating.

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