Pihlajalinna - Catching up with the larger rivals

Name: Evli
Price range: $

Pihlajalinna’s Q2 served a small positive surprise relative to estimates. We are confident operating margin and multiple expansion potential enable solid long-term upside.

Small earnings beat as profitability continued to improve

Pihlajalinna’s Q2 revenue grew 24% to EUR 142.5m, compared to the EUR 140.7m/139.4m Evli/cons. estimates. There were no major surprises in terms of customer group revenues; we find the small revenue beat was due to the public sector. Private customer revenue recovered 44% from last year’s dip, but appointments remained 24% below 2019 levels, while within corporate customers visits were already close to pre-pandemic levels. Higher costs continued to limit outsourcing’s profitability y/y, but there was improvement q/q. Q2 operating margin excluding outsourcing improved by almost 700bps y/y. The combination of higher volumes and COVID-19 services drove profitability, but there’s still potential for further gains, depending on the type of service, even on current volume levels. Pihlajalinna reached EUR 6.5m adj. EBIT vs the EUR 5.6m/6.2m Evli/cons. estimates. The company retained its guidance.

We make only minor revisions to our estimates

Oral care is one practice area where profitability can be improved even without any increase in capacity utilization rates. COVID-19 services will remain high in Q3, while there’s some associated cost uncertainty. Overall clinical seasonality patterns should remain intact, but the current virus situation probably limits standard services’ volume potential for now. We now estimate FY ’21 growth at about 13% and adj. EBIT at EUR 31.9m.

Significant long-term upside potential is on the horizon

The Pohjola acquisition adds capacity and improves Pihlajalinna’s ability to compete with the two larger Finnish rivals. The focus will initially be on private customers, but public sector growth is also likely long-term. The target had by itself too limited scale to be profitable. Pihlajalinna will return with more details on the deal, but in our view the target seems a good fit and synergies should materialize already next year. Pihlajalinna remains valued 8x EV/EBITDA and 16x EV/EBIT on our FY ’21 estimates. These are below peers’, and Pihlajalinna also has more margin expansion potential considering its relatively modest profitability. Our new TP is EUR 13.5 (13.2); we retain our BUY rating.

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