Marimekko - Only getting warmed up

Marimekko’s Q2 figures came in above estimates. The company is still only laying out the foundation for sustained international expansion, and we believe this underpins earnings growth potential for years to come.

EBIT margin potential will not fully materialize this year

Finland’s 61% y/y growth drove Q2 top line to EUR 32.7m, up 40% and above the EUR 29.3m/29.3m Evli/cons. estimates (last year’s store closures softened the comparison period). Both Finnish Retail and Wholesale advanced a lot while International, up 20% y/y, was mainly driven by Wholesale. Home wares continued to sell well and in our opinion the offering’s breadth is one point that testifies to Marimekko’s strengths. Q2 EBIT was EUR 5.5m vs the EUR 2.9m/4.0m Evli/cons. estimates; we find the positive surprise relative to our estimates stemmed from the EUR 2.4m gross profit beat. Digital and omnichannel customer experience projects will add to costs in H2 and Marimekko’s guidance moderates estimates for the rest of the year.

We see there is a long earnings runway ahead

Collaborations like the Adidas one show how the strategy works as the Marimekko brand is enjoying a rejuvenation period. We understand the Adidas deal generated ca. EUR 1m in revenue and profits in Q1; we expect license revenue will remain below EUR 3m this year, but the brand benefits extend beyond direct financial gains. Marimekko doesn’t have that much more growth potential in Finland but is still very modest in the global fashion & apparel context; upside potential remains considerable and from this perspective the long-term 10%+ CAGR target doesn’t seem very challenging. Marimekko began to gather pace towards long-term ambitions a few years before the pandemic and has already been able to post above 15% EBIT margins. In our view the company should be able to sustain long-term profitability at least a few percentage points above the stated target level.

Valuation remains reasonable considering the potential

Marimekko’s earnings-based multiples, roughly in the 19-25x EV/EBIT range on our FY ’21-23 estimates, have continued to climb and are now near those of luxury goods peers. Multiples are also high relative to their own historical levels, but we view this justified since the company’s profile now stands on a whole new level. Our new TP is EUR 84 (63); we retain our BUY rating.

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