Loihde - Expecting a growth-filled first quarter
Loihde reports its Q1 results on Friday, April 28th. We expect the company's Q1 double-digit growth to be strongly supported by its security business. Driven by increased estimates resulting from the acquisition of Hämeen Lukko, we have raised our target price to EUR 16.5 (16.0), while maintaining our rating at HOLD.
Expecting strong topline growth
The growth prospects for Security Solutions (SeSo) remain strong. In Q1, we expect high double-digit growth for SeSo, fueled by the acquisition of Turvakolmio. On the other hand, we expect that the Q1 growth of Digital Development (DiDe) slows down due to customer uncertainty. Overall, we estimate Q1 net sales of EUR 33.7 million which reflects y/y growth of 18.6%. Considering the slower net sales development of DiDe, we expect that lower utilization rates will have some impact on margins. As a result, we foresee Loihde's adjusted EBITDA landing at EUR 2.1 million, which reflects a margin of 6.4%.
Acquisition expands SeSo’s reach
Uncertainty observed in digital services markets seems to have spilled over into the cyber security markets, where Loihde's peers have reported delayed deal closings due to customer uncertainty. However, such slowdown has only a minor impact on SeSo's 23E growth. In addition to M&A enabled growth from 2022, the acquisition of Hämeen Lukko (see page 2) will strengthen SeSo's position and inorganic revenue expansion further. We foresee DiDe stepping back on the double-digit growth path in H2. Our 23E net sales estimate for the group amounts to EUR 144.1m, reflecting a y/y growth of 17.2%. We expect that efficiency investments will bear fruit by improving adj. EBITDA margin by some 0.3%-p to 8.7%. Leverage will become more visible in 2024 when we expect a margin improvement of 0.7%-p.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 16.5 (16.0)
Loihde is valued with 23-24E EV/EBITDA multiples of 4-4.5x which reflects clear discount to peer median. However, the company’s relative valuation turns quite expensive by considering it without its net cash position (23-24E P/E of 22-15x). With ~3% increase in 23E EBIT, we adjust our TP to EUR 16.5 (16.0). Rating remains at HOLD.
The growth prospects for Security Solutions (SeSo) remain strong. In Q1, we expect high double-digit growth for SeSo, fueled by the acquisition of Turvakolmio. On the other hand, we expect that the Q1 growth of Digital Development (DiDe) slows down due to customer uncertainty. Overall, we estimate Q1 net sales of EUR 33.7 million which reflects y/y growth of 18.6%. Considering the slower net sales development of DiDe, we expect that lower utilization rates will have some impact on margins. As a result, we foresee Loihde's adjusted EBITDA landing at EUR 2.1 million, which reflects a margin of 6.4%.
Acquisition expands SeSo’s reach
Uncertainty observed in digital services markets seems to have spilled over into the cyber security markets, where Loihde's peers have reported delayed deal closings due to customer uncertainty. However, such slowdown has only a minor impact on SeSo's 23E growth. In addition to M&A enabled growth from 2022, the acquisition of Hämeen Lukko (see page 2) will strengthen SeSo's position and inorganic revenue expansion further. We foresee DiDe stepping back on the double-digit growth path in H2. Our 23E net sales estimate for the group amounts to EUR 144.1m, reflecting a y/y growth of 17.2%. We expect that efficiency investments will bear fruit by improving adj. EBITDA margin by some 0.3%-p to 8.7%. Leverage will become more visible in 2024 when we expect a margin improvement of 0.7%-p.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 16.5 (16.0)
Loihde is valued with 23-24E EV/EBITDA multiples of 4-4.5x which reflects clear discount to peer median. However, the company’s relative valuation turns quite expensive by considering it without its net cash position (23-24E P/E of 22-15x). With ~3% increase in 23E EBIT, we adjust our TP to EUR 16.5 (16.0). Rating remains at HOLD.