Innofactor - Showing much needed improvement

Clear growth boost in Q3
Innofactor reported better than expected results. Growth clearly picked up a notch, 21.5% y/y (13.4% organic), with net sales of EUR 16.7m (Evli 14.9m). Growth was aided by improved invoicing rates following actions implemented after the weaker H1. Profitability came in line with our expectations, with EBITDA of EUR 1.8m (Evli EUR 1.9m). Relative profitability was in our view slightly soft but still at good levels. Subcontracting expenses increased y/y and the improvement in invoicing was gradual throughout the quarter, with September having been strong according to the company. The order backlog was up 7.3% y/y.

Potential for 2023 but too early to get overly excited
The achieved sales growth in Q3 along with the gradually improved invoicing rate provides very good support for the end of the year and confidence for Q4 appears to be strong. With the demand situation looking unchanged and should the achieved efficiency be sustained, Innofactor is set for notable earnings improvement potential heading into 2023. The sustainability of the higher operative performance remains a key concern given recent challenges, and further proof is warranted. We currently estimate a ~2%p increase in the EBITDA-margin in 2023 should the late-Q3 performance be sustained in the near future, although H1/22 was soft, and the potential is bigger than that.

BUY with a target price of EUR 1.25
Innofactor currently trades below peers. In our view this is not fully unjustified given the sub-par performance during 2022. We, however, still see that the shown improvement signs and potential still supports valuation upside. We retain our target price of EUR 1.25, valuing Innofactor near the peer median, and our BUY-rating intact. We note that peer multiples have come down recently and in absolute terms, the implied 2023 target P/E of ~10.5x is not overly challenging.