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Finnair - Slow recovery ahead

Finnair’s April-June revenue decreased by 91% y/y (EUR 69m) while adj. EBIT totaled EUR -174m. Flights are slowly recovering in Europe and Asia but the costs related to the ramp-up will increase H2E comparable operating loss. We keep our rating “HOLD” with TP of EUR 0.50 (0.60).

Heavy losses during Q2
Finnair’s Q2 result was weak as expected. April-June passenger numbers were down by ~98% y/y. Revenue declined by ~91% y/y and was EUR 69m vs. EUR 54m/49m Evli/consensus. Adj. EBIT was EUR -174m vs. EUR -177m/-179m Evli/consensus. ASK decreased by ~97% y/y and PLF was 33.1% (-49.4pp). Finnair’s revenue in the second quarter was greatly supported by the cargo business, which generated more than 70% of the revenue. The company reiterated its previous guidance (20E revenue will decline significantly compared to the previous year and the comparable operating loss will be significant). Revenue guidance for Q3E was not given. However, the comparable operating loss in Q3E will be of a similar magnitude than in Q2, due to clearly reduced capacity and costs related to the ramp-up.


Slowly recovering
The historically gloomy quarter is now behind and Finnair is slowly recovering its flights as travel restrictions in many European and Asian countries are gradually being lifted. In July, the company operates approx. 25% of its normal amount of flights. The estimated level in September is approx. 50%. The current traffic plan might change based on the pandemic situation and changes in the country specific restrictions. Finnair’s cargo business has increased its importance during this time and especially on Asian long-haul routes, the profitability is supported by the cargo business thus the good development of freight supports the launch of passenger flights. The company has been able to improve its cash position due to the rights offering proceeds of approx. EUR 500m (wasn’t fully booked by the end of June) and EUR 200m instalment of the EUR 600m statutory pension premium loan which was drawn in June.


“HOLD” with TP of EUR 0.50 (0.60)
Based on the new information we have further cut our estimates. We expect 20E revenue of EUR 1497m and adj. EBIT of EUR -503m. We highlight that the visibility remains very weak and there are significant uncertainties also with our 21E-22E estimates. We keep our rating “HOLD” with TP of EUR 0.50 (0.60).

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