Finnair - Close to expectations

Finnair’s Q4 revenue hit estimates well, while adjusted EBIT was a bit stronger than expected. At first glance the report doesn’t seem to contain any major surprises. Travel demand continues high after the pandemic for now, while inflation is still a challenge.
  • Q4 revenue landed at EUR 687.3m, compared to the EUR 679.0m/681.2m Evli/consensus estimates.
  • Adjusted EBIT was EUR 17.9m vs the EUR 13.5m/2.7m Evli/consensus estimates.
  • Fuel costs amounted to EUR 228m vs our EUR 222m estimate, whereas staff costs were EUR 115m vs our EUR 115m estimate. All other OPEX+D&A totaled EUR 364m, compared to our EUR 370m estimate.
  • Cost per Available Seat Kilometer was 8.18 eurocents vs our estimate of 8.13 eurocents.
  • The BoD proposes no dividend to be paid for the year (as expected).
  • Finnair expects to operate an average capacity of 80-85%, in terms of ASKs, in 2023 compared to 2019. High demand should support unit revenues in the short-term, while normal seasonality returns, which may result in negative Q1 EBIT. Finnair estimates FY ’23 revenue to increase significantly but will not yet reach the level of FY ’19.
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