Etteplan - Market outlook uncertainties
Etteplan reports its Q4 results on February 17th. Sights are already set on the outlook for 2023, with our expectations being on a notable y/y slow-down in growth.
Expecting good progress in 2022 to show also in Q4
Etteplan reports its Q4 results on February 17th. Operative performance during the year has so far been fairly solid and we expect the Q4 results to follow suite. Our estimates for revenue and EBIT are EUR 99.0m and EUR 8.9m respectively, with the implied Q4 guidance EUR 86-101m and EUR 7.8-10.8m respectively. Some risks to Q4 growth are posed by more conservative recruitment measures implemented in Q3 and the overall demand situation, although we expect the impact of the former to be more visible in 2023. We expect dividends to decrease y/y due to the exceptional items related to the Semcon offer, with our estimate at EUR 0.32 per share (2021: EUR 0.40), although a y/y increase is not out of question based on the on our estimates expected y/y adjusted earnings improvement.
Growth seen to slow down in 2023
Etteplan is heading into 2023 with some uncertainty relating to organic growth given the more conservative approach to recruitments and more turbulent demand situation, despite double-digit organic growth so far during FY2022. We currently expect clearly slower organic growth, in the low-mid single digits. We expect acquisitions to still be an important part of Etteplan’s growth strategy in 2023 despite uncertainties and with a few more targeted acquisitions growth could push towards the double-digit mark. In terms of margins, we expect rather flat development y/y, seeing potential for earnings improvement through operative enhancements but also noting inflationary pressure.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 15.0 (13.5)
We have made no changes to our estimates ahead of Q4. With a rise in peer valuation levels, we adjust our target price to EUR 15.0 (EUR 13.5) and retain our HOLD-rating. Our target price values Etteplan at ~16x 2023e P/E, quite in line with peers but below historical levels given current uncertainties.
Etteplan reports its Q4 results on February 17th. Operative performance during the year has so far been fairly solid and we expect the Q4 results to follow suite. Our estimates for revenue and EBIT are EUR 99.0m and EUR 8.9m respectively, with the implied Q4 guidance EUR 86-101m and EUR 7.8-10.8m respectively. Some risks to Q4 growth are posed by more conservative recruitment measures implemented in Q3 and the overall demand situation, although we expect the impact of the former to be more visible in 2023. We expect dividends to decrease y/y due to the exceptional items related to the Semcon offer, with our estimate at EUR 0.32 per share (2021: EUR 0.40), although a y/y increase is not out of question based on the on our estimates expected y/y adjusted earnings improvement.
Growth seen to slow down in 2023
Etteplan is heading into 2023 with some uncertainty relating to organic growth given the more conservative approach to recruitments and more turbulent demand situation, despite double-digit organic growth so far during FY2022. We currently expect clearly slower organic growth, in the low-mid single digits. We expect acquisitions to still be an important part of Etteplan’s growth strategy in 2023 despite uncertainties and with a few more targeted acquisitions growth could push towards the double-digit mark. In terms of margins, we expect rather flat development y/y, seeing potential for earnings improvement through operative enhancements but also noting inflationary pressure.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 15.0 (13.5)
We have made no changes to our estimates ahead of Q4. With a rise in peer valuation levels, we adjust our target price to EUR 15.0 (EUR 13.5) and retain our HOLD-rating. Our target price values Etteplan at ~16x 2023e P/E, quite in line with peers but below historical levels given current uncertainties.