Enersense - Organic improvement continues

The upgrade implies Q4 was a lot better than we previously estimated but also suggests further improvement this year after recent challenges caused by high inflation.

Q4 figures clearly better than previously estimated

Enersense upgraded its FY ’22 guidance. Revenue should be around EUR 265m while adj. EBITDA will top EUR 12m. We had previously estimated relatively robust 8% top line growth for Q4’22, however we update our estimate to 31% ahead of the report. We saw Q4 EBITDA margin slightly below 2% but now update our estimate to 4.5%. The positive revision was driven by wind power projects, which proceeded ahead of schedule, yet our EUR 15m top line and EUR 2.6m profitability revisions suggest our previous estimates to have been cautious on other fronts as well. Organic growth outlook seems to be stronger than we previously estimated as each of the four segments appears headed for double-digit growth also this year.

High growth to continue even without the Voimatel deal

In our view Enersense is set to achieve significant earnings improvement in FY ’23 as inflation was a major challenge throughout last year, dragging profitability over the crucial summer months. Enersense has been negotiating inflation compensation for a while, the results of which are set to materialize with a lag, and this year inflation should prove much more modest whereas top line growth looks to remain in the double-digit territory. We note Connectivity has recently announced EUR 65m in contracts for the coming years. We estimate Enersense should be able to achieve roughly 200bps gains in operating margins this year. The Voimatel acquisition, should it go through, would help drive further operational improvement, but for now it’s still being processed by the FCCA.

FY ’23 figures and wind power projects could drive upside

Enersense continues to invest in growth this year, helped by the EUR 26m in proceeds from convertible notes. We have updated our FY ’23 EBIT estimate to EUR 11.4m (previously EUR 8.4m), on which Enersense trades roughly 10x. The valuation is not particularly challenging, especially relative to peers; the 3.8% EBIT margin we estimate also doesn’t reflect full profitability potential and hence earnings growth should continue next year. Our updated TP is EUR 7.0 (6.0) as we retain our HOLD rating.

Open Report