Consti - Market outlook of key interest

Expecting uneventful Q3, some cost impact likely
Consti reports its Q3 results on October 27th. Progress during the first half of 2022 was at a rather good level despite some negative impact from rising material prices and inflationary pressure. Apart from some minor tweaks, our estimates remain intact. We expect continued modest growth supported by the order backlog and profitability levels similar to the comparison period given the slight strains from construction material increases. Consti’s 2022 operating profit guidance is at EUR 9-13m, with our estimate at EUR 10.2m.

Mixed signals on market outlook
The market outlook remains rather favourable for the on-going year aided by order backlogs, while the outlook going forward is showing mixed signs. The Confederation of Finnish Construction Industries RT (CFCI), in its October business cycle review, estimates the renovation volumes to grow by 1.5% and 2.0% in 2022e and 2023e respectively. On the other hand, a survey conducted by Talotekniikkaliitto during autumn 2022 regarding the Finnish renovation building technology market shows an increase of respondents expecting a slow-down of near 12%p to 31.4% compared with the survey conducted in spring 2022. The new residential building construction outlook is grimmer, with CFCI estimating a volume decline of 5.8% in 2023e. Data on construction cost development from Statistics Finland suggests a clear slow-down in cost growth during Q3, although still at a clearly elevated level on y/y basis.

BUY with a target price of EUR 11.0 (12.0)
Consti currently trades clearly below peers, which in our view remains hard to justify given the exposure to the more stable renovation market compared with the new construction focused peers. The continued high construction costs, economic uncertainty and inflationary environment, however, remain a threat, and we lower our target price to EUR 11.0 (12.0).